SGM-FX insights

G7 conclusion Yesterday’s publication of UK inflation data reached markets before the European and UK open. Whilst headline CPI is arguably less important for Bank policy than other inflation-focussed statistics such as services inflation, the release still demands market attention. Yesterday’s publication showed UK inflation above forecast for April. April is always a challenging month […]

UK Borrowing Another one for the pub quiz in case it comes up: UK government borrowing stands at £2.8 trillion or £2800 billion. While you digest that number over the chicken in the basket if indeed you are already in the pub, it will have increased by the time you get to the end of this […]

Warnings Once again there are voices within the investment community warning against an overzealous rebound amongst US asset prices. The rebound in equities following the progress made in resolving liberation day tariffs has been remarkable. Many US indices have entirely recovered the losses made following April 2nd. This stands in stark contrast to other markets, […]

The Art of the Deal Today the UK Prime Minister will be announcing the fruits of his weekend labours after meeting the EU not as an accredited delegate but in a side session on the fringes of the EU Summit in Albania. What was on the table? Youth mobility, which is pol speak for 24-30 […]

EV Sales Electric Vehicle sales figures are showing extraordinary volatility in 2025. In April alone US EV sales fell 5.6% from a year previously, while rising 35% in Europe, 32% in China and 51% in the rest of the world. Is it because the US has had its fill of EVs or is this more […]

A return to data So far, this trading week has been characterised by a lack of salient data publications. In the absence of such data, markets have been more sensitive to news headlines and political developments. That certainly hasn’t left markets directionless with both of these drivers more plentiful than ever, largely due to POTUS. […]

POTUS in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia As one of POTUS’ travelling companions on this week’s visit, Larry Fink of Blackrock represents everything that a US President might want to burnish his credentials in the desert kingdom: head of the largest asset manager on the planet, hugely influential and totally credible. Just a shame that he […]

Ceasefire  Following talks in Switzerland over the weekend, a 90-day pause to Trump’s liberation day tariffs on China has been announced. The publication of a joint statement yesterday morning prompted heavy USD buying. The result of the negotiations is that for 90 days as of tomorrow, the tariffs imposed during Trump’s liberation day announcement and […]

Beyond USD A comment caught our eye over the weekend: assuming that US markets will recover is not a strategy, it is now for the first time in decades a gamble. With the Vix volatility index of the S&P500 still high, US Treasuries having failed the test recently when they failed to rally at market […]

Stagflation USA This is the spectre confronting Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the wider USA. It is unusual simultaneously to have both rising unemployment and higher prices with the consequence of rising inflation, but that is where the USA stands today, in the face of the TT or Trump tariffs. Unsurprisingly, despite POTUS offering his […]

Fed Hold The Fed is clearly unperturbed from the political pressures rising against it. Despite vocal opposition from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent to lower rates, the Fed looks set to keep rates on hold for longer. The Fed was facing a tough decision moving into last night’s publication and subsequent press conference. That […]

Asia on Fire The TWD or Taiwan Dollar has scarcely featured in most FX traders’ consciousness until the past four weeks, when the NTD has roared up over 10%. The Korean Won has managed a respectable 6%, the Thai Baht and the Malaysian Ringgit 5% and the Singapore Dollar 4%. So what’s behind it? The […]