SGM-FX insights

Next! The outcome of the Parliamentary debate in France yesterday leaves the nation in political limbo as its Prime Minister François Bayrou is ousted. The vote yesterday was on the motion that the French Parliament held no confidence in the government’s 2026 budget. As expected, they don’t. Many prominent voices in the market suggested that […]

Independent Central Banks To continue the recent debate about how worried we should be (very) about the loss of independence of the USA’s Federal Reserve, the respected ex Deutsche Bank and HSBC Financial Times columnist Stuart Kirk, posited at the weekend that the answer should be, not very worried at all. SK arrived at this […]

US Rate Cuts The markets are understandably fixated on the US jobs report which comes out this afternoon given the Federal Reserve’s laser like focus on employment. On Wednesday data reflected that July Job Vacancies fell to a 10 month low. There is now a 100% chance priced in for a September US rate cut and […]

Tariffs: more than a risk to trade This week has emphasised just how quickly deteriorating confidence in the sustainability of public finances can unwind support for a currency. This of course has been evident in GBP as we have covered. Despite a small recovery yesterday, helped by weak US data, the local currency continues to […]

British Pound That Indian Summer predicted for GBP took a knock yesterday, with UK PM Sir Keir reshuffling some of his top team and the markets scoring it, as a blow for Chancellor Reeves since the PM seems to be recruiting a rival economic team to try and regain control of the UK economy and the […]

Food and flights It will be a couple of weeks until UK data for September kicks off in earnest. This week will really only see a delayed publication of July’s retail sales data which, although salient, is unlikely to tip the needle on price. The same is true of next week with growth data to […]

US Consumer Spending Inflation may be a concern, consumer sentiment may be low, the US labour market may be slowing but in the past four months the US consumer has been out and proud: spending. While consumer spending fell on an inflation adjusted basis for H1 2025, taking the period from may to end August […]

Independent Central Banks The concept that has served the USA and the wider world so well for more than 8 decades is being tested in respect of the Federal Reserve by POTUS and the financial world is largely so far, complacent. Distinguished economist Paul Krugman wrote an excellent piece yesterday and his conclusion, other than […]

Suspended animation Earlier this week, headlines seemed to hold all the makings of a bout of fresh volatility. So far, that volatility has failed to materialise, despite continued fundamental pressures largely political in nature. We have highlighted how a political vacuum in France is likely to raise perceived regional risk within one of Europe’s foremost […]

Knock On Currency Moves Reuters conducted a survey of the largest European companies and unsurprisingly pretty much all of them are citing the strengthening EUR as having negatively impacted their results in H1. Whether it’s German telecoms or Dutch paint, the story is the same. But in another twist to the tale of tariffs and […]

Powell’s pivot? With US stock indices hitting record highs on Friday, it is perhaps unsurprising that the market took a breather during the UK bank holiday yesterday. Light trading volumes during European hours, particularly within FX, created a steady start to the trading week. However, it was the turn of US equities to deliver some […]

532,046 That was the number of members of the Labour Party at its peak in 2019. By the end of 2024, after Sir Keir and his team had won an election and placed their stamp on the UK, that number had fallen to 333,235. This together with the flagging Conservative Party represents the widespread disillusionment […]