SGM-FX insights

Feathering the brakes or cutting the lines? Today the ECB will deliver to markets its latest monetary policy decision. A press conference will follow the decision which will see journalists probe the President for information regarding the path of future policy adjustments. Today’s decision will take place within a market that has already fully priced […]

European Elections Traditionally European voters are decided on how to cast their votes well in advance of polling day, right? Wrong: in most cases and for example while worth looking at Malta where only 5% make up their minds in the last few days, at the other end of the scale in the Netherlands where […]

Skewed risks US core PCE data was released on Friday. Mildly softer inflation has allowed some limited US Dollar selling pressure. Due to revisions in US rate expectations, risks to the US Dollar that are driven by inflation publications are significantly skewed towards soft inflation releases. Friday’s data showing 0.2% month-on-month core inflation therefore caught […]

British Pound As the main global economies reported on inflation last week, analysts are drawing some high level conclusions: inflation remains stubborn which reduces the probability of the number of rate cuts this year expected three months ago. Consumer sentiment remains strong in the USA. Europe has declared that it is not constrained by other […]

Currency Volatility Recently we wrote about the possibility of market volatility arising from the elections and their outcomes that will take place around the world over the next 6 months. Looking at the DB Index of FX Volatility which currently stands at 6.3, it is more than worth noting that the 5 year average is […]

Never a dull day Yesterday South Africa headed to the polls in what was expected to be the most closely contested election in decades. Clearly not wanting the scrutiny of international markets to falter, we await an interest rate decision in South Africa later today also. Of course, in fact this is not abnormal. The […]

EU Elections With hard right French candidate Marine Le Pen and centre right German Ursula Von der Leyen vying for the position of being seen as the unifying right wing EU parliamentary candidate , it is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni who is being touted as the queen maker and who will determine the composition of a […]

Eurozone in focus After a busy week for the Dollar, focus looks most likely to turn to the Euro as we approach June. The next ECB decision is due to be published on June 6th. As present, the ECB looks near certain to cut rates at this meeting. There remain risks of course to that […]

Vice President Rather like those riderless horses in the Grand National that gallop over the fences alongside horses with jockeys aboard, Nikki Haley despite having abandoned her nomination bid for the Republican presidential candidacy, is still garnering 20% of Republican votes. Now however NH while falling short of endorsing her ex rival President Trump, has […]

It’s raining, it’s pouring And Rishi Sunak was cawing. Stood defiantly behind the lectern placed in the middle of Downing Street, if it weren’t for the puddles accumulating on Rishi’s shoulders, you’d have never known it was lashing down with rain in central London yesterday. Only time will tell whether the rehearsed and enthusiastic declaration […]

Gold The gold bulls are having a high old time with the metal at almost its all time high of Monday. There are three main reasons for this: first is the amount of gold bought by the world’s Central Banks in past months, second is the huge demand from China as holders of Yuan fearful […]

Will the BoE cut in June? According to markets at the close of trading yesterday, a June rate cut from the Bank of England is likely. However, priced at just a 58% probability, you can see just how open the ground for the Bank of England’s June meeting remains. For some time now June has […]