SGM-FX insights

Gold and Oil Gold is still firm at USD 2716 but flat whereas oil is perky with Brent at USD 73.22. The reason oil is firmer despite the hopefully de-escalating Middle East situation is that there is hope being injected into the price by the Chinese economic stimulus and the hope that the expected imminent […]

2024 Global Economy Like much else in the dismal science of economics the 80/20 rule applies to the global economy with the G20+ BRICS economies accounting for 80% of the pie and the rest of the world making up 20%. When it comes to the G20 the G7 countries make up 41% and the 5 […]

Tapering As the week has progressed and today’s ECB decision moves into focus, European rates have been tapering in on the 25-basis point cut consensus scenario. Less than a 5% chance of an outsized 50-basis point cut remained priced into overnight rates as of market open this morning. This adjustment will limit any potential Euro […]

Dollarisation A chart in this week’s Economist was both not surprising and at the same time quite remarkable. The not so surprising part was that it showed that USD share of all international payments has risen steadily over the past 12 years since 2012, from 30% to just under 50%. Equally expected is that GBP […]

CPI fades to ECB The trading week ahead will most likely be defined by the balance between tomorrow’s US CPI release and Thursday’s ECB decision. Both are likely to contribute to setting the tone for any final year-end positioning and influence the path of respective central bank policies for the year ahead. First, a glance […]

UK Housing Market Best performance in the past two years etc etc with the Halifax average house price up 4.8% as at the end of November. Without being curmudgeonly or seasonally Scroogelike the real house price performance allowing for inflation in the last 2 years is minus 10.5% for all those mistakenly regarding their house […]

UK Equities We wrote recently about a European wide Santa Rally in Equities despite the political headwinds in Continental Europe, but it looks as if the UK market has finally managed to break out on the top side of its range and without wishing to jinx it, may be set fair. One well known Fund […]

One government builds, another falls SGM-FX has covered the run up to the vote of no confidence in Barnier’s infantile French government somewhat comprehensively. Despite this it still feels necessary to highlight that last night this vote concluded and Barnier’s government has collapsed. The Prime Minister is due to submit his resignation to the President […]

BRICS In case you missed it, and I very nearly did due to the sheer amount of soon to be again President Trump’s social media output, he was vociferous in his opposition to a BRICS inspired alternative currency to USD. While we have been following the long running Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa […]

The EUR/USD chasm One key US stock index, the S&P 500, recorded its 54th closing record for 2024 yesterday. Such equity performances are indicative of the fact that US sentiment and fundamentals continue to widen the transatlantic divide. Within the Eurozone, bond yields between member states continue to be volatile as spreads rise, with investors […]

Iceland Over the weekend the 390,000 people of Iceland who number almost the same as the most populous London Borough of Croydon have cast their votes in a snap election that will likely unseat the current coalition and replace it with another one composed of Social Democrats and the Liberal Reform party. Cost of living […]

86 This is the number of Basis Points between French and German Government Bond Yields and represents the highest level since 2012 which was the last time of a major EU crisis- which that time was Greece which had fallen from grace with the markets. Apart from this wide spread it is instructive as to […]