SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – Coalition

Morning Brief – Coalition

Charles Porter Tue 16 Apr 2024

Coalition This briefing is about South Africa and the Rand, which frequently proves to be one of the more divisive subjects within our roster of currencies. In particular, with the election looming, this will be about South African governance. Not from a political or human perspective about what may be the best long term outcome […]

Morning Brief – EUR

Morning Brief – EUR

Humphrey Percy Mon 15 Apr 2024

EUR European Central Bank President Madame Lagarde made two bold statements last week: the ECB does not target exchange rates and the ECB is not dependent on Federal Reserve policy. While at one level both are sometimes true, it is brave to explicitly make those statements at a ECB press conference and more than risks […]

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Humphrey Percy Fri 12 Apr 2024

European Central Bank Something for everybody: the ECB as expected left interest rates unchanged but made it clear that cuts will be forthcoming now that inflation is near the target 2% rate. Brushed over is that with growth at near zero, bank lending moribund and the EU economy flat, something has to give.EUR/USD 1.0720 Japanese […]

Morning Brief – Once, twice..

Morning Brief – Once, twice..

Charles Porter Thu 11 Apr 2024

Once, twice.. Three times a Dollar rally? With the market having been delivered a strong jobs report last week, all eyes were on yesterday’s US CPI print for greater clarity on the macro data set. As a reminder, on Friday of last week, non-farm payrolls data showed the US economy added 303,000 jobs in March. […]

Morning Brief – France

Morning Brief – France

Humphrey Percy Wed 10 Apr 2024

France Quite simply the numbers do not add up for President Macron and his future in government, never mind La Belle France and its citizens : France is the third most indebted EU country after Greece and Italy with a debt to GDP ratio of 110.6%. In the past year the deficit has increased by […]

Morning Brief – ECB

Morning Brief – ECB

Charles Porter Tue 9 Apr 2024

A long shot: ECB The ECB will deliver its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday followed by a press conference. For the first time in a long time, there is a faint prospect of an interest rate cut. At the very least, meaningful non-interest rate monetary tools, including the plethora of programs sustaining the ECB’s […]

Morning Brief – Space Solar

Morning Brief – Space Solar

Humphrey Percy Mon 8 Apr 2024

Space Solar UK Oxfordshire based company Space Solar is on the way to creating a solar farm that will generate constant and cheap electricity….in space. The plan is to launch a 2000 tonne solar farm into space and then with a complicated system of mirrors and solar panels beam light back to Planet Earth from […]

Morning Brief – A long shot

Morning Brief – A long shot

Charles Porter Thu 4 Apr 2024

A long shot: 2/2 Whilst it should not necessarily be read as a glowing endorsement of longer-term prospects of EURUSD, the transatlantic cognitive divide that I wrote of on Tuesday should begin to moderate. The same forces that for the past couple of years have made it relatively simple to talk up the perceived outperformance […]

Morning Brief – Oil

Morning Brief – Oil

Humphrey Percy Wed 3 Apr 2024

Oil As we have been pointing to, oil has been edging up and is now on a 7 month high. Not it should be stressed on a rosey economic picture but rather on increasing tensions in the Middle East-the latest being the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.Brent: USD 88.70 Sunny Spain The […]

Morning Brief – A long shot

Morning Brief – A long shot

Charles Porter Tue 2 Apr 2024

A long shot: 1/2 The world, in particular, the Northern Atlantic in a number of words that leaves you with some probability of reading the final sentence: no pressure then. Financial markets and FX in particular all tend to boil down to rates: interest rates, inflation rates, rates of return etc. The financial universe is […]

Morning Brief – Quarter End

Morning Brief – Quarter End

Charles Porter Thu 28 Mar 2024

Quarter End For those markets, including the UK, which will be observing Good Friday, today will be the last trading session of both March and Q1 2024. This means that we should expect today to mark the final day of any major FX position adjustment. The end of a month, quarter or year brings with […]

Morning Brief – EU Border Controls

Morning Brief – EU Border Controls

Humphrey Percy Wed 27 Mar 2024

EU Border Controls 26,000 respondents in 18 jurisdictions have spoken and 51% of them are dissatisfied with border controls and the level of immigration into the EU. Now that is a statistic that political parties across the EU should sit up and take notice of in the next two months in the lead up to […]

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