SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – Never a dull non-farm

Morning Brief – Never a dull non-farm

Charles Porter Tue 7 Feb 2023

Never a dull non-farm Non-farm payrolls data almost always provides the observers an opportunity to witness and potentially trade with some volatility in the markets. More often than not the salience of the event and the mixed expectations moving into it leads to more price fallout from the noise generated from the event instead of […]

Morning Brief – US Economy

Morning Brief – US Economy

Humphrey Percy Mon 6 Feb 2023

US Economy The US job figures on Friday most certainly set the cat among the pigeons: with non farm payrolls expected to be up by 187,000 and the market’s expectation that Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve was talking the talk rather than walking the walk when he had said last Wednesday that rates were […]

Morning Brief – UK Housing Market

Morning Brief – UK Housing Market

Humphrey Percy Fri 3 Feb 2023

UK Housing Market Plenty of comment about the UK’s housing market and where it is headed, but maybe it’s time to boil down the essentials for the next year: with rates higher and unemployment likely to rise, conventional wisdom suggests that the housing market will fall. However, there are two key differences to recent previous […]

Morning Brief – Blinkers

Morning Brief – Blinkers

Charles Porter Thu 2 Feb 2023

Blinkers Today is the day that the ECB and Bank of England meet. Spreads in the spot, forward and options markets are all reflecting a degree of uncertainty and exhibiting volatility already. As we have mentioned, both central banks are widely expected to pursue a 50-basis point hike but the higher conviction call within these […]

Morning Brief – Central Banks and Cost of Borrowing Drivers

Morning Brief – Central Banks and Cost of Borrowing Drivers

Humphrey Percy Wed 1 Feb 2023

Central Banks and Cost of Borrowing Drivers The two principal levers used by central Banks are monetary policy and the setting of interest rates and the management of their balance sheets. With a move towards tightening ie higher interest rates and the reduction in balance sheet holdings, the snag is that despite some encouraging signs […]

Morning Brief – A big week indeed

Morning Brief – A big week indeed

Charles Porter Tue 31 Jan 2023

A big week indeed Normally the first week of any new month is relatively significant. There is typically an above average volume of data releases with the notable non-farm payrolls in the United States normally the figure analysts are looking out most closely for. February will prove to be no exception with a significant load […]

Morning Brief – Global Trade Trends

Morning Brief – Global Trade Trends

Humphrey Percy Mon 30 Jan 2023

Global Trade Trends Following Covid, Lock Down, Supply Chain issues and the trade war between China and the USA, while globalisation may not have ended, it is being replaced in significant part by what some economists are naming fragmentation which is the handle given to countries moving production of goods to manufacturing centres nearer to […]

Morning Brief – Inflation

Morning Brief – Inflation

Humphrey Percy Fri 27 Jan 2023

Inflation With markets as ever getting ahead of themselves by many having decided that the inflation peak is a yesterday thing, there is a dawning realisation that with the current levels of USA 6.5%, 9.2% UK and 10.4% EU as at Dec 2022, inflation is not only well above target of 2% but is still […]

Morning Brief – Will they, won’t they

Morning Brief – Will they, won’t they

Charles Porter Thu 26 Jan 2023

Will they, won’t they It’s one week to the day until the next Bank of England decision. It will prove critical to the value of GBP and perhaps prove to be a defining feature of the currency market for at least the first quarter of this calendar year. Bank rate in the UK currently sits […]

Morning Brief – UK Government Borrowing By Numbers

Morning Brief – UK Government Borrowing By Numbers

Humphrey Percy Wed 25 Jan 2023

UK Government Borrowing By Numbers Many people have a disconnect when it comes to linking government finances with their own-bring on the idea of teaching finance as part of the school curriculum-however, yesterday’s release showing the government borrowing figures fall into the category of both attention grabbing but so eye watering that many will likely […]

Morning Brief – Canadian Clues

Morning Brief – Canadian Clues

Charles Porter Tue 24 Jan 2023

Canadian Clues There has been a key theme in markets emerging for several months now. It will likely continue to be the defining feature for several months if not quarters ahead. We had lived several phases of the monetary adjustment cycle that have each been so central to defining exchange rate movements in the post-pandemic […]

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Humphrey Percy Mon 23 Jan 2023

European Central Bank As we buckle up for the forthcoming February 2 European Central Bank meeting, ECB Board Member Klaas Knot broke cover at the weekend with the warning that at least two 50 bp rises are on the cards for February and March with more to follow in May and June, but the size […]

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