SGM-FX insights

UK Migration of HNWs UK migration has become the focus in recent days in addition to, rather than instead of, immigration which is always front and centre in peoples’ minds and not just in the Isle of Dogs and Epping, as some politicians would have us think. Henley and Partners forecasts that the UK will […]

A risky ‘risk-on’ The theme of this week is undoubtedly the risk-on rally caused by reported progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. As always with market moves driven by this topic, the details are opaque and at a time where progress is claimed, bombs continue to fall on Kyiv. Optimism comes from speculation that Ukrainian […]

Economic Competence “Chancellor has GBP10 billion hole blown in her calculations just days before her Autumn Statement”, screamed the financial headlines on Friday. Of course, a Budget the size of the UK’s has plenty of overs and unders, but over borrowing and the cost of debt servicing or interest costs are part and parcel of […]

UK Bank Reserves An excellent Daily Telegraph piece this week by economist Dr Gerard Lyons that made a number of telling points that both BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves would do well to read and afterwards to act differently. Just one of those points concerns the Bank of England paying banks bank rate on […]

Clarity The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday ended speculation on the fate of data produced during the recent US government shutdown. As a result of the inability to collect key household data, notably on unemployment, it has announced that there will not be an October jobs report. Moreover, what little data that was collected in […]

Japan While this week’s focus has been on the AI bubble as typified by Nvidia shares and the concerns raised by legendary investor Peter Thiel having sold all his Nvidia shares, the USD has been strengthening further against JPY prompting expectations of Bank of Japan intervention to halt the slide in JPY. When it last […]

Back in business? Tomorrow will mark one week since the President’s signature was provided to end the longest US government shutdown in history. It is not uncommon for the legacy of a shutdown to drag on beyond its formal conclusion date because it can naturally take differing amounts of time for different departments to get […]

British Pound News that Chancellor Reeves had abandoned her controversial and politically charged plans to raise UK Income Tax on Friday morning sent the British Pound lower by lunchtime, however, Sterling recovered from most of that fall later on Friday. The reason given for the change of tack on Income Tax rises was that economic […]

Gold and Oil Following the longest US Government shut down ever, the market view is that following the re-opening of the US Government, the data reporting that has been absent will resume and that data will strengthen expectations of a cut in US interest rates. That resulted in the USD selling off and US Yields […]

Volatility on offer As we approach year end, traded ranges have remained relatively narrow despite significant macroeconomic themes developing. Looking ahead beyond year end, we note the options market continues to severely underprice volatility versus historical standards. Within such an environment, broader risk appetite remains constructive. As a result, the carry trade has continued its […]

UK Unemployment by Numbers Work and Pensions Minister Pat Mcfadden defined the art of politics when he announced that 329,000 people “had moved into work” this year and that this was part of the plan to “get Britain working”. The Office of National statistics saw things a bit differently. While not disputing the Minister’s claim, since more […]

Just in time? As we wrote yesterday, the latest US government shut down has become the longest in history. The impact upon sentiment and consumption is sure to have been significant but it is too early to identify from the data just how much damage was done. Thanks to the eight democrats who have broken […]