Daily Brief – Peace Deal

Peace Deal

As news begins to emerge from the G7 Evian les Bains talks, at the time of writing there is still very little either in detail or in writing as to what the 60-day US-Iran Peace Deal contains, resulting in more questions than answers. John Bolton the very much ex advisor to POTUS contends that Iran has played him like a violin and that he has secured a poor deal entirely driven by his aim of bringing petrol prices down in the USA – i.e. yielding to domestic pressure at the expense of wider considerations. The market wants to believe that firstly the 60-day deal will hold, and secondly that there is the prospect that the other side of the 60 days lies a more permanent and workable peace deal. Meanwhile, the Brent oil price has come down further to USD 80.03 following Sunday’s announcement, but looking at EUR/USD and the continuing strength of the USD, the market wants to be but remains far from… convinced.

EUR/USD 1.1603.

Spanish Clean Energy

One of the puzzles is how the cost of energy in Spain has fallen in the past 3 months since March 1. The answer lies in Spain’s commitment to clean energy. Since 2021, solar and wind derived energy has increased by 37%. If that were not enough, the use of gas in creating electricity is one of the most expensive factors and in Spain the use of hours of gas has fallen from 52% in 2021 to 9% in 2026. Overall, the influence of fossil fuels on energy prices in Spain has fallen by 75% since 2019 due to Spain’s commitment to a clean energy transition.

EUR/GBP 0.8645.

Precious Metals

With Gold having passed through a chart point of USD 4,300 and currently trading at USD 4,349, calls for the next leg up have re-started yesterday. Influential US author Robert Kiyosaki advocates buying both Gold and Silver and bucking the trend, Bitcoin which as we mentioned last week is down 36% in the past year. Gold is tipped by JP Morgan to go up to USD 6,300 in the next year while Goldman Sachs is more measured forecasting USD 5,400.

GBP/USD 1.3420.

Sir Edwin Landseer

As Queen Victoria’s favourite artist and painter of Monarch of the Glen – think stags, misty mountains, and Scottish glens – Landseer’s art it is safe to say, apart from gracing the lids of biscuit tins and whisky bottle labels is out of fashion. But wait, another less known Landseer painting Scene of Braemar goes to auction in London next month. Anyone with GBP 4 million and the space to hang the 9 foot painting and who is not fussed by this niche school of art and hankers after a stag at bay flanked by two hinds should not hesitate: never mind being the sister piece to the Monarch of the Glen, it’s a monster of a painting of a beast.

EUR/JPY 186.16.

Mercy

This day in 2008 Welsch chanteuse Duffy Jones having adopted the mononymous stage name of Duffy had a breakthrough with this number that was named Song of the Year by Mojo magazine. Better known for her life story which features being moved in 1998 at the age of 14 to a police safe house due to her stepfather’s ex wife having taken out a contract to kill him, being rescued from a fire in a rented Kensington London penthouse in 2012 and most notoriously being kidnapped, drugged, raped and transported abroad in 2020, Duffy has led a life that would stretch a reader’s credibility to breaking point in a novel.

Hit the beat
And take it to the verse, now
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Yeah, yeah, yeah

Yeah, yeah, yeah
I love you
But I gotta stay true
My morals got me on my knees
I’m begging, please, stop playing games

I don’t know what this is
‘Cause you got me good
Just like you knew you would
I don’t know what you do
But you do it well
I’m under your spell

You got me begging you for mercy (Yeah, yeah, yeah)
Why won’t you release me? (Yeah, yeah, yeah)
You got me begging you for mercy (Yeah, yeah, yeah)
Why won’t you release me? (Yeah, yeah, yeah)
I said release me (Yeah, yeah, yeah)

Now you think that I
Will be something on the side
But you got to understand
That I need a man
Who can take my hand, yes I do

I don’t know what this is
‘Cause you got me good
Just like you knew you would
I don’t know what you do
But you do it well
I’m under your spell

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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