Daily Brief – UK Population

UK Population

If not the most emotive political topic in the UK today, that of the population size and the UK’s demographics runs cost of living a close second. 200 years ago in 1821, the breakdown of the then United Kingdom was Ireland 6.8 million, Scotland 2.1 million, Wales 800K, and England 10.4 million which totals 20.1 million. Scroll forward to 2019 from which as we know the UK has leapt forward further still in population size and the picture looks as follows: Republic of Ireland included for comparison purposes 4.9 million, Northern Ireland 1.9 million, Scotland 5.6 million, Wales 3.2 million, and England 56.3 million which totals 71.9 million. Apart from the standout more than 5X increase in England, the remarkable number at the other end of the scale is that of the total of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland which is unchanged. Migration, the Potato Famine, and Economics have all played their parts in the Irish numbers as of course does the less than hospitable nature of Ireland’s terrain facing the Atlantic Ocean.

GBP/EUR 1.1572.

Reverse Yankee Bonds

RYBs are debt issued by US firms in EUR and then swapped back into USD and the news in international markets is that they increased by 50% in the past year. International debt denominated in EUR rose to more than USD 1.1 trillion last year. In FX markets though, EUR reserves edged up a little but were broadly unchanged at 20% versus USD which commanded 57%. Private investment in Gold doubled last year to 2,200 tons while Central Banks bought 850 tons. There was a surge unsurprisingly in USD hedging in the past year given USD volatility on successive policy and tariff announcements by POTUS. China’s Yuan Renminbi stands at 9%. What all this adds up to is that the ECB President Lagarde’s dream of the EUR challenging the USD as a global reserve currency remains just that – for the moment at least despite the ongoing self-harm that the USA is visiting on its currency as well as its reputation.

EUR/USD 1.1619.

British Pound

If you are confused about the outlook for Sterling in the light of the protracted and ongoing USA-Iran peace negotiations, then it may be timely to summarise firstly what a peace deal would mean for Sterling. To date, the tightness of the range in GBP/EUR has been remarkable since March 1 and the outbreak of hostilities. All the movement has been in GBP/USD and when a deal looks imminent, USD weakens as its safe haven attraction diminishes and GBP goes up. The other change in the weather in the past weeks has been that as the Bank of England has dampened expectations for rate rises in support of the British economy, the market has liked that story more than its previous slavish adherence to the absolute and relative interest rate comparisons with other currencies. That leaves the Makerfield by-election in 2 weeks’ time on June 18 which apart from Labour and Reform looking close in the polls, looks to be the largest impending known unknown on the Sterling horizon.

GBP/USD 1.3451.

Littering

As I watched a car in a traffic jam ahead of me successively drop the remains of a McDonalds meal out of the window onto the road in London last night, I thought enviously of what Tokyo is doing to litter bugs. At Shibuya crossing one of the most visited parts of the Japanese capital, littering is met with an on the spot fine of JPY 2000 or USD 13 or GBP 9. Tokyo has 42 million visitors a year compared to London’s 30 million and not only London but all European cities would do well to emulate the response of clean Asian cities such as Beijing and Tokyo not to forget Singapore to such anti-social behaviour. Don’t hold your breath for London’s Mayor Khan to take similar steps.

EUR/JPY 185.81.

Light My Fire

This day in 1967 admittedly 59 years ago but just as good today as it was then, The Doors released this timeless song which certainly did set things on fire and caused lead singer Jim Morrison to be censored, fined and threatened by civic authorities not to mention law enforcement forces for his lewd behaviour at concert venues in the USA and Europe. It may not sound much in 2026 but all I can say is that you had to be there.

You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you
Girl, we couldn’t get much higher

Come on baby light my fire
Come on baby light my fire
Try to set the night on, fire

The time to hesitate is through
No time to wallow in the mire
Try now we can only lose
And our love become a funeral pyre

Come on baby light my fire
Come on baby light my fire
Try to set the night on, fire yeah

The time to hesitate is through
No time to wallow in the mire
Try now we can only lose
And our love become a funeral pyre

Come on baby light my fire
Come on baby light my fire
Try to set the night on, fire yeah

You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you
Girl, we couldn’t get much higher

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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