Daily Brief – “My body’s screaming”

My body’s screaming

“My body’s screaming
Can you hear the sound?”  

“Kiss me, take my heart and break it again
Please say that this night will never end”  

“Let the night go up in flames till we forget who we are”  

“Before we go, before we go home” 

And it was eyes never mind ears down for Saturday night’s Eurovision 2026 which kicked off with this ditty from Denmark which, in case you missed the subtleties in the original Danish, we translate into English. A couple of hours of madness in Vienna which, if not exactly a tonic, given the high level of all round Eurovision mania, was certainly a distraction from the realpolitik of this week’s world.

Makerfield

UK by-elections rarely excite as much interest as Makerfield is likely to do given that Andy Burnham, Labour PM, hopeful has staked his hopes on his return to Westminster on the 76,000 constituency. In 2024, Labour had a majority of 13.4% but that comfortable labour lead hides a number of factors that make the outcome rather more uncertain: firstly, the turnout in 2024 was 52% which, while not low, is likely to be much increased given the amount of press interest plus national and international investor interest in the outcome of the by-election. Then of course there is the recent dramatic local election swings to Reform while at the same time offset by the less dramatic increase in the Greens’ vote. Assuming that the Conservative and Lib Dem votes remain stable, the race will come down to the question as to how much of the Labour defection accrues to Reform. The stakes are high given that the Labour Party likes Andy Burnham most of the potential PM candidates and the bond markets like him least given his economic pronouncements especially on “the UK being in hock to the bond markets.” AB should take a course in the reality of the UK having a public sector debt of GBP 2.9 trillion which equates to GBP 102,000 per household.

EUR/GBP 0.8721.

Polymarket

Prediction betting is one of the fastest growing betting sectors and Polymarket is worth a look if not a flutter. But spoiler alert look away now if you are not of a strong disposition as Polymarket has proved itself to be a accurate predictor of outturns. The most likely to be the next UK PM is indeed Andy Burnham assuming he wins Makerfield on 42%, next is Keir Starmer (really?!) on 27%, while Angela Rayner commands 12%. No wonder markets and GBP especially don’t like it.

GBP/USD 1.3326.

Currency Trading

If one had bought the 5 highest yielding G10 currencies this year and sold the 5 lowest yielding according to Citibank one would have netted 4% year to date. The carry trade is back. Top currencies for yield are Aussie or AUD and Norway’s NOK followed by GBP. Low currency volatility encourages carry trades as volatility can wipe out value due to the costs of hedging. The world’s largest currency trading pair EUR/USD had a volatility of 5.6% in April versus 7.7% in March and 9% in April 2025 when tariffs were unveiled by POTUS. So that lower volatility is tempting funds and international investors back into the carry.

EUR/USD1.1623.

Brutalist Architecture

Pinch yourself: BA is in fashion. Most would have assumed that the post WW2 concrete monstrosities prevalent across Europe would not merit Instagram attention on socials, but they do and places such as Skopje, Macedonia or Oia, Santorini or the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona see queues to obtain the perfect shot. If all that seems a bit far flung never mind improbable, UK readers need go no further than the City of London where they will find the Barbican Estate which was built after the extensive clearance necessitated by WW2 and which covers no less than 40 acres and is sufficiently brutal for the most determined of brutalists.

EUR/JPY 184.70.

I Remember You

Covered by Frank Ifield the British-Australian singer who ascended to the great recording studio in the sky exactly one year ago this day in 2024. Frank had 4 Number Ones and is perhaps best known for incorporating yodelling into his singing in the 1960’s. And that is a form of musical expression that simply does not exist 60 years on. Try this behind a locked bathroom door: “Yoh-de-lay-ee-hoo! Boh-dee scree-ay-ee-min’, ho-la-di-oh! Can ya hee-yah da sooound?” 

Better now?
I remember you
You’re the one who made my dreams come true
A few kisses ago
I remember you
You’re the one who said, “I love you, too”
Yes, I do, didn’t you know?
I remember, too
A distant bell, and stars that fell
Like the rain out of the blue
When my life is through
And the angels ask me to recall the thrill of them all
Then I will tell them I remember you
I remember, too
A distant bell and stars that fell
Just like the rain out of the blue
When my life is through
And the angels ask me to recall the thrill of them all

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter