Daily Brief – US Markets

US Markets

As we settled into the weekend USD was enjoying a fourth day of strengthening, US GDP came in at 1.4% instead of the 3% expected by analysts and US inflation at 2.4% all added up to just a normal Friday in US markets. Then the Supreme Court decision came in deeming POTUS’ tariffs illegal. In the USA time zone which is where I am writing this, CNN lit up with every talking head claiming that they expected the decision and simultaneously discovering that tariffs were inflationary. Cue the startling epiphany that tariffs were costing the US consumer. Before getting ahead of ourselves the GDP figure was of course impacted by the lengthy US government shut down in Q4. The Dollar duly sold off but is still of course buoyed up by the US Iran Gulf tensions.

GBP/USD 1.3495.

ECB

The runners and riders are lining up to win the race to be the next European Central Bank President with Christine Lagarde burnishing her CV to head the World Economic Forum. Leading contenders are Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Coste, Dutchman Klaas Knot, and Italian Fabio Panetta. No one expects France to win the contest and Germany’s Joachim Nagel while a runner is regarded as an outsider. With the topics of EUR as a global currency, integrated capital markets and increased EU borrowings as being in the in tray of the incoming new President and Germany being opposed to at least two of those three, expect Joachim Nagel to be nobbled before the off.

EUR/USD 1.1785.

Mango Farming

Hands up if you knew that India is the largest grower of mangoes and produced 23 million tons of the fruit in the last year. A leading farm is Berrydale Foods that given the effects of climate change is experimenting with greenhouse cultivation. Mangoes are difficult and in the past took between 10 and 20 years to flower and produce fruit. That has come down to 5 to 7 years but it’s more of an art than a science with over 700 varieties and success being far from assured.

Brent Oil USD 71.62 and Gold USD5093

BCC

No not a typo, it stands for Better Chicken Commitment and the news is that 8 major restaurant groups have dropped it. So Nandos, Burger King, and Kentucky Fried Chicken to name a few are no longer committed to sourcing sustainable chicken. Money talks and well battery chickens probably don’t. If you are still reading M&S, Greggs, Pret, and Waitrose remain members of BCC.

EUR/GBP 0.8734.

Don’t Know Why

This day in 2003 Norah Jones scooped the pool at the 45^th Grammy Awards in Madison Square Gardens, NYC by winning Album of the Year, record of the Year, Best New Artiste and Best Female Pop Vocal with this number. Such was the weight of voting that the results were in stark contrast with the title of the song.

I waited ’til I saw the sun
I don’t know why I didn’t come
I left you by the house of fun
Don’t know why I didn’t come
Don’t know why I didn’t come

When I saw the break of day
I wished that I could fly away
Instead of kneeling in the sand
Catching tear-drops in my hand

My heart is drenched in wine
But you’ll be on my mind forever

Out across the endless sea
I would die in ecstasy
But I’ll be a bag of bones
Driving down the road alone

My heart is drenched in wine
But you’ll be on my mind forever

Something has to make you run
I don’t know why I didn’t come
I feel as empty as a drum
I don’t know why I didn’t come

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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