Daily Brief – Oil

Oil

On the back of rising tensions in the Gulf region due to the likelihood of a US strike or even a full out attack on Iran, Brent oil prices went back through USD 70 yesterday. That would of course lead to supply disruption and escalating prices. As night follows day for the same US-Iran reason, Gold also rose and now sits at USD 4991.45.

Brent USD 71.45.

Walmart

If one wants to take the pulse of the US economy one need look no further than bellwether consumer stock Walmart. While Q4 met or even exceeded analyst expectations, the outlook for 2026 did not meet forecasts from the market. Doubtless, the increasingly divided Federal Reserve Governors on the rate cutting side of the argument will be making a point of that.

EUR/USD 1.1765.

Cardinham

This Cornwall UK village has had 50 consecutive days of rain, which while a market leader in recent times is still well behind its record of 72 days set in 2000. That must mean that all those Water Companies are making sure that their reservoirs are fully topped up. Well yes, across the UK reservoirs are 90% full but surprisingly the South West only scores an average fullness rating. Still, plenty of leaks to plug presumably.

EUR/GBP 0.8737.

TFR

Total Fertility Rate is an issue for the old world i.e. Europe but it is equally so for China which has an overall TFR of 1.02 which means that death and birth rates are pretty much equal. Fewer workers and fewer consumers, and that is not healthy for an economy with such a voracious ambition to develop its economy and grow its population to support those vaunting set of objectives. The reasons for China’s birth rates collapsing are down to long working hours, high housing costs, and less enthusiasm among the young to embrace family life. As a prime example, Shanghai has a TFR of 0.53 which is just over a quarter of what is required to maintain a stable population.

 GBP/USD 1.3470.

I Should Be So Lucky

This day in 1988 miniscule pop pixie and Neighbours starlet Kylie Minogue made it big by notching up a Number One with this number. Now it’s a case of ho hum as Kylie has scored no less than 30 chart hit singles but then it was a case of Management 101 and taking a soap star and hey presto turning her into a pop star through the artifices of impresario Pete Waterman.

In my imagination
There is no complication
I dream about you all the time
In my mind, a celebration
The sweetest of sensation
Thinking you could be mine

In my imagination
There is no hesitation
We walk together hand in hand
I’m dreaming
You fell in love with me
Like I’m in love with you
But dreaming is all I do
If only they’d come true

I should be so lucky
Lucky, lucky, lucky
I should be so lucky in love
I should be so lucky
Lucky, lucky, lucky
I should be so lucky in love

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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