Daily Brief – Chinese Yuan

Chinese Yuan

Leaving aside the Frankincense and Myrrh, it is the relationship between the prices of Gold and Silver that are worth a further look at this point. In the past month, the ratio between 2026 could be the year that the Chinese Yuan becomes a world funding currency because of the ever-onward march of China and its economy together with the determination of POTUS to inflict damage on the USD which has resulted in a marked reduction of the trust that had been built and nurtured since WW2. Chinese overseas bank lending has tripled in the past 4 years and sales of onshore and offshore Yuan debt have set records for the second year running. The reason behind these rises in lending and bond issuance and sales has been largely due to the price differential between Chinese rates and US rates but because of that price differential real momentum for Yuan denominated funding has been developed. Make no mistake, 2026 will not see a replacement of the USD with CNY but it will see CNY make strides towards acceptance globally which will be fuelled by the BRICS countries that have the stated ambition of moving away from USD dominated funding.

EUR/USD 1.1768.

Caviar

It’s not only CNY that is poised to take off as a world funding currency for China. Kaluga Queen is a brand of Hangzhou Qiandaohu Xunlong Sci-Tech Co Ltd and has already more than taken off as it amazingly accounts for 60% of the world’s caviar production. By all means pair your caviar with vodka for that all Russian high end experience, but the chances are that the caviar is from China and the vodka is made by Diageo, the top selling global vodka manufacturer which is of course British.

GBP/USD 1.3509.

Californian Wine

Tough times for the Californian wine industry which has deservedly won its reputation as being one of the top two most overpriced wine regions along with Burgundy France. California’s Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon is being battered by the following: pre tariff over importation of European wines, cost of living pressures leading to punters eschewing the purchase of those USD100 bottles of wine and last but not least, younger people drinking less or nothing in the way of alcohol. Recommended by Jancis Robinson in the Weekend FT is a Californian Cabernet Sauvignon from Oakville offered by Tesco’s under their own Tesco’s Finest banner: a snip at GBP16.50. Standby for further Californian wine going on special in 2026.

EUR/GBP 0.8712.

2026 Workplace

Lots of gloom about job vacancies falling and the onward march of AI but where is the demand for jobs? Sectors like plumbers, electricians, and builders are all on the up as are architects, IT, childcare, logistics and anything that requires human interaction. Healthcare, technical trades and engineering all command higher pay and long term potential. So it’s by no means all bad and as it were ever thus, there is plenty of work available if one gets off the sofa to look and then chooses the sector sagely.

EUR/JPY 183.61.

Annie’s Song

This day in 1943 Henry John Deutschendorf was born in Roswell New Mexico. Despite this inauspicious start, HJD threw off the shackles and built himself a stellar musical career as John Denver before being an early adopter of all things warrior when it came to eco, green and climate. Sadly that all came to an untimely end on October 12 1997 when his microlight aircraft crashed in to the Pacific off the coast of California and while John Denver was lost to this world, his music and his green initiatives live on.

You fill up my senses
Like a night in a forest
Like the mountains in springtime
Like a walk in the rain
Like a storm in the desert
Like a sleepy blue ocean
You fill up my senses
Come fill me again

Come let me love you
Let me give my life to you
Let me drown in your laughter
Let me die in your arms
Let me lay down beside you
Let me always be with you
Come let me love you
Come love me again

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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