Daily Brief – Precious Metals

Previous Metals

Leaving aside the Frankincense and Myrrh, it is the relationship between the prices of Gold and Silver that are worth a further look at this point. In the past month, the ratio between Gold and Silver has moved from 80:1 to 64:1 or a 20% move. Some precious metal traders are claiming that support at 60:1 is fast approaching and the suggestion is that the ratio will then bounce off that level and rise again towards 80. Care needs to be taken as an alternative scenario is that the ratio breaks through the 60 level and will continue to fall. Looking at a graph for the past 50 years, the low is 14 and the high is 125, but it is the 10 year graph that gives an entirely different picture with a low of 64 and a high of 125 hence the suggestion of the ratio being likely to rise again. Gold currently stands at USD 4427 and Silver at USD 69. Gold currently strong on anticipation of further US interest rate cuts plus the considerable draw of its status as a safe haven asset in these times.

EUR/USD 1.1716.

Australia

2026 is likely to see a sharp rise in the AUD as two interest rate increases are anticipated in early 2026. Good for Australian savers but not for mortgage holders. Meanwhile, the Aussie is trading on a 14-month high as markets like the fact that interest rates will be up to 1% higher in Australia than USA interest rates. The other factor buoying the AUD is the strengthening of the Chinese Yuan which the AUD is increasingly tracking on the back of the influence of China on the Australian economy.

GBP/USD 1.3485.

Brussels Sprouts

Don’t look away, if you, like many cannot stand Brussels Sprouts. They represent a stand out in the cost of the Christmas dinner that you may still be recalling with a mixture of pleasure and regret that it is now past-only 361 days to the next one. The cost of Christmas dinner since pre Pandemic 2019 has risen by between 20% (carrots) and 30% (mince pies) with turkey like most of the other constituent parts up 25%. That’s why Brussels Sprouts stick out as they are the only ingredient that has fallen and by a surprising 14%. Very simply sprouts are out of fashion with demand having fallen by a whopping 87% since 1974. 

EUR/GBP 0.8731.

Handa

Off the very top North West coast of Scotland, the uninhabited 760 acre island of Handa seeks a ranger for the period March to September 2026. The post requires someone who is self reliant, at ease in their own company and possesses both people skills to ensure the 400 daily visitors go home at night plus knowledge of flora and fauna to provide the requisite level of visitor information. A bothy is provided for the ranger to live in on top of the £26K salary although the ranger will be unable to spend much of that if any on Handa. Win win: solitude and a boost to the savings account – so very Scottish!

EUR/JPY 184.01.

Do They Know It’s Christmas

Knocking Wham! From its otherwise unassailable grip on the hearts and minds of la jeunesse doré in 1984, came a disparate and unruly bunch of pop stars who came together as Band Aid to record what became the Number 1 seller as the world dug deep to contribute to the humanitarian disaster that had unfolded as a result of the famine in Ethiopia.

It’s Christmas time
There’s no need to be afraid
At Christmas time
We let in light and we banish shade

And in our world of plenty
We can spread a smile of joy
Throw your arms around the world
At Christmas time

But say a prayer
Pray for the other ones
At Christmas time it’s hard
But when you’re having fun

There’s a world outside your window
And it’s a world of dread and fear
Where the only water flowing is
The bitter sting of tears

And the Christmas bells that ring there
Are the clanging chimes of doom
Well, tonight thank God it’s them instead of you

And there won’t be snow in Africa this Christmas time
The greatest gift they’ll get this year is life, ohh
Where nothing ever grows
No rain or rivers flow
Do they know it’s Christmas time at all?

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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