Daily Brief – Condensed Hours

Condensed Hours

This is a relatively new concept which used to be called flexi hours and is available to public sector workers who as we have already written, are permitted to WFH – almost 50% of the public sector are in fact WFH for 2 or 3 days per week and 73% want to WFH for a min 2-3 days per week. Back to Condensed Hours: instead of working 5 days a week 0900 to 1700 which already sounds pretty generous to most private sector wage slaves, public sector workers can elect 0800 to 1800 4 days per week and be paid the same amount as for 5 days. Consequently, a combination of WFH+CH makes it entirely feasible for Civil Servants for example to live far from their workplaces and enjoy a 21^st century super work life balanced lifestyle far removed from the Dark Satanic Mills of the 19th century’s Industrial Revolution. Last week we came across a London employed Civil Servant who is required to attend his office just once a fortnight and lives in… Cardiff. The travel cost of that fortnightly visit to London is met by the taxpayer as an allowable expense, which does raise all sorts of other questions about cost effectiveness for the taxpayer but never mind that. An additional point is that to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, whom Chancellor Reeves would do well to emulate, good economic management starts close to home rather than just at home or even just by working from home.

EUR/GBP 0.8725.

US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and British Pound

Lots of Central Bank meetings this week but let’s get Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Switzerland out of the way first since none of them are expected to change monetary policy. That leaves the USA tonight with the current expectation of it cutting its rates but with the now expected signal that subsequent rate cuts will be fewer and smaller. That is what is likely to drive US Dollar higher at present. Japan hit earlier in the week by an earthquake and fearful of a tsunami is seeing JPY weaker. The UK’s Monetary Policy Committee is meeting week of 18 December and is expected to cut interest rates and for that to be followed in 2026 by 3x 25bp rate cuts. As ever in this fast moving world, that’s the 2026 forecast as of today, but much will depend on the unfolding economic and political events overshadowing Europe that look likely to play out in 2026.

EUR/USD 1.1644.

Gold

Last week one of our readers asked following the 60%+ run up in 2025, what lies in store for the Gold price in 2026. The World Gold Council is forecasting that given their view that Gold is now fair value, that the price will fluctuate in a narrow range of +5% to -5% from its current USD 4200. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley agree, while Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are predicting between USD 4900 and USD 5300. The factors that would send the price higher are heightened geopolitical risk, further economic slowdown, lower than expected US interest rates, and a weaker than anticipated US Dollar. Conversely, if POTUS’ economic measures were to succeed in igniting economic growth prompting higher US interest rates and a stronger USD then there could be as much as a 20% decline in the Gold price. What everyone led by the WGC do seem to agree on is that firstly 2026 will not see a repeat of 2025 and secondly that Gold should be retained as a component part of a well balanced asset portfolio.

GBP/USD 1.3343.

Global Shipping

On the back of the decision to postpone the levy on carbon emissions in the shipping industry which was proposed by the UN’s International Maritime Organisation, it would seem unlikely that the industry is ready yet for a decarbonised future. In 2024, almost 50% of all goods traded by the EU with the Rest Of the World – ROW were transported by sea and it is estimated that 1 in 5 jobs in the EU depend on the export industry. Worldwide, according to the OECD, 80% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. Given these numbers the decision not to impose the levy on the shipping industry smacks rather more of the one that got away rather than small fry. Maybe COP31 will deliver something more meaningful than its many COP predecessors.

EUR/JPY 182.05.

Mistletoe and Wine

Love him or otherwise, you just cannot escape Cliff Richard’s pop success: this one went to Number 1 in 1988. This was Cliff’s 100^th song release and only 9 failed to chart in the Top 40. So both musical and commercial stardom and consistency. No wonder he stands out in the halls of pop culture pantheon as he constantly reinvents himself as the evergreen Peter Pan of Pop.

The child is a king, the carolers sing
The old has passed, there’s a new beginning
Dreams of Santa, dreams of snow
Fingers numb, faces aglow

Christmastime, mistletoe and wine
Children singing Christian rhyme
With logs on the fire and gifts on the tree
A time to rejoice in the good that we see

A time for living, a time for believing
A time for trusting, not deceiving
Love and laughter and joy ever after
Ours for the taking, just follow the master

Christmastime, mistletoe, and wine
Children singing Christian rhyme
With logs on the fire and gifts on the tree
A time to rejoice in the good that we see

Silent night
Holy night

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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