Daily Brief – Economic Competence

Economic Competence

“Chancellor has GBP10 billion hole blown in her calculations just days before her Autumn Statement”, screamed the financial headlines on Friday. Of course, a Budget the size of the UK’s has plenty of overs and unders, but over borrowing and the cost of debt servicing or interest costs are part and parcel of financial management 101. The upshot of it is that if there was some good news once the Chancellor had found GBP 20 billion down the back of her sofa the previous weekend, the feel good factor had been dissipated in large part by lunchtime on Friday. It will be astonishing if further questions as to whether Rachel Reeves has a sufficient grip on the nation’s finances have not been raised by the time you are reading this. Unsurprisingly, GBP looks fragile and markets are awaiting a better than expected performance from the Chancellor on Wednesday if they are not going to penalise Sterling.

GBP/USD 1.3099.

EU

Germany’s economy is still growing though more slowly and France’s economy is stabilising though still contracting. And that’s the divergence at the heart of the EU with the two largest economies behaving differently. Overall the EU economy is still growing slowly but is held back by both tariffs and high electricity costs. Services are the driver of that growth while manufacturing is slowing progress. Input prices are rising and businesses are finding it increasingly hard to pass those additional costs on to consumers. EU GDP is predicted to grow 1.4% in 2025 with top of the class Malta showing growth of 5%. Just a shame that Malta is not larger.

EUR/USD 1.1506.

Greece

If you go down to the woods today in Greece, you may be more sure of a big surprise than you would have been 20 years ago. Brown bears have quadrupled in number in Greece and now there are more than 870 of them roaming the forests of Northern Greece. If that was not enough, wolves are also on the increase with predatory attacks being experienced on the outskirts of Athens and even as far south as the Pelepponese.

EUR/JPY 180.19.

NEETs

Not in Employment, Education or Training are known by HM Government when compiling sets as NEETs. For some time successive governments have failed to grasp that particular nettle and now the number of 16-24 year old NEETs is just short of 1 million at 987,000. The increase in NI and the new employment laws are yet to bite but expect the number to increase further and this potentially dynamic section of the adult work force to remain unharnessed for work.

EUR/GBP 0.8785.

Swings Both Ways

No not a radical new departure for us, just to register that it was this day in 2013 that Robbie Williams scored his 11^th Number One album. In a spookily great example of synchronicity it was also the 1000^th Number One album since Number Ones were invented/listed back in 1956. At that time on that date Frank Sinatra was Number One with…..Songs for Swingin’ Lovers. So there. Oh yeah.

I’m coming out of the sandbox
You’ll get covered in dog doo
I’m gonna get off the see-saw
Say goodbye to your mama
Oh yeah let’s get high on some pop rock
Pop rock and coke
I’ll blow your sucker
Teach you how to laugh at daddy’s dirty jokes
Don’t head your bets, doubled down
If you wanna get ahead in tinsel town
Turn that smile upside down
Happy people don’t have sex
Now Robbie

Everybody Swings Both Ways
From the butches, the bandits
The? of faggots and singers with everything they need
Everybody Swings Both Ways

Face it Robbie,

You’re a little bit gay

I’m Getting hard on the pavement
Can you find me some grass?
I have a certain arrangement
Up the kyber pass
Oh yeah

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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