Daily Brief – EU Budget

EU Budget

There’s nothing like a EUR 2 Trillion Budget to test the bonds of brotherhood binding the EU bloc to squeaking point. Yesterday, President Ursula von Der Leyen launched her increased and eye watering strategic budget which has already met what is politely termed a mixed reception by the EU Parliament as the key elements of agriculture and cohesion are merged as well as other changes described as ground-breaking are put forward. Not so claim the advocates of the multi year budget. What is for sure is that the budget is big and bigger than ever before at 1.23% of the EU’s Gross Domestic Product up from 1.07%.

EUR/USD 1.1591.

G20 Finance Ministers

As the G20 finance ministers gathered yesterday in South Africa, the context of the timing of the meeting given the USA’s impending tariffs due to land in 2 weeks time on August 1, not to mention the absence of Scott Bessent of the USA meant that it was more than likely to fall flatter than the top of Cape Town’s Table Mountain. While the RSA President Cyril Ramaphosa having survived his White House meeting was hoping to bid for better access to capital for poor countries and more action on climate change, delegates’ minds will be preoccupied with other matters. In one way, Scott Bessent not being there is a blessing given POTUS’ negative comments on RSA, but it should not be forgotten that as a member of BRICS, South Africa has been termed anti American into the bargain. So maybe an elegant absence.

EUR/JPY 172.15. 

Urban Agglomerations

In simpler historic times we used simply to call large densely populated areas, cities. Then came the urbanisation of the 20th century. London’s definition as an urban agglomeration has a population of 15.1 million. Meanwhile the giant 21^st century phenomena urban agglomerations are almost exclusively in Asia. For example Guangzhou, China has 72.7 million. Shanghai also in China has 41.6 million, a mere 400k ahead of Tokyo, Japan. This is civilisation on a giant scale. Apart from the challenge of managing urban populations larger than most countries it brings social, educational and security challenges unprecedented in the history of the world. When I attended a traditional Chinese banquet in Shanghai in 2012, the Mayor of Shanghai explained in his speech that at 33 million Shanghai was at that time larger than the population of Saudi Arabia.

GBP/USD 1.3412.

Cruising Economics

Is it the time value of money or perhaps the cruising industry having a collective wobble on whether going forward it can fill its increasingly large fleet of cruising behemoths with paying passengers? Whatever the reason, Regent Seven Seas Cruises is offering up to 40% discounts for passengers signing up for 2026 or 2027 or both. For example, adventurous well healed silver surfers who are both time and cash rich could sign up for a 20 night voyage titled Arabian Nights and Egyptian Shores offered at a snip of EUR 7,132 each for a Penthouse Suite. Clearly the marketing gurus in Miami USA are wonders with words but not so hot on geography since the itinerary is Doha, Qatar to Cape Town, South Africa via the Seychelles. Arabian Nights maybe, but no Egyptian Shores unless a diversion involving a sharp right turn through the Gulf of Aden then past Eritrea and Sudan and up the Red Sea to Egypt is executed.

 EUR/GBP 0.8642.

Not Fade Away

A mere 61 years ago today in 1964 the then newish Rolling Stones managed to get into the US charts for the first time with this number. It was an immediate hit and sounds as good today as it did then.

I’m gonna tell you how it’s gonna be
You’re gonna give your love to me
I’m gonna love you night and day
Well love is love and not fade away
Well love is love and not fade away
My love bigger than a Cadillac
I try to show it and you’re drivin’ me back
Your love for me has got to be real
For you to know just how I feel
Love is real and not fade away
Well love is real and not fade away
I’m gonna tell you how it’s gonna be
You’re gonna give your love to me
Love to last more than one day
Well love is love and not fade away

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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