Daily Brief – NATO

NATO

This week sees the 32 member countries of NATO convening in The Hague for the annual meeting which this time unsurprisingly is going to attract rather more in the way of news coverage than it has in previous years. The ECFR or the European Council of Foreign Relations has just completed a poll of 16,400 people in 12 countries to gauge how Europe feels about ramping up defence spending and weaning itself off US support. The short answer is that there are mixed feelings but broad support for increasing defence spending except in Italy where 57% are somewhat/strongly opposed and Spain which is not only anti but is refusing to commit to a percentage spend of GDP. Of the 12 countries polled, 11 of them are against withdrawing military support for Ukraine. As a reminder NATO members are attempting to agree that all countries should commit to a spend of 3.5% of GDP on core military plus 1.5% of GDP on infrastructure, cyber security and other security spend. Ex UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace has weighed in with the suggestion that any member country not signing up to the 5% commitment should be kicked out of the NATO club.

EUR/USD 1.1590.

e-bikes

Those readers who live in or visit London will be familiar with the distinctive green Lime bikes that are a popular feature of the London scene. All too often users dump them on pavements, blocking pedestrians and presenting dangerous obstacles for the blind, old, short sighted, inebriated or just plain careless. Hats off to Dame Joan Collins who may be 92 but is as feisty as ever for calling out “loutish” Lime riders who dump their e-bikes on the pavement in an Instagram post. It may be a far cry from her raunchy film performances but she still has what it takes when it comes to getting attention.

GBP/EUR 1.1733.

Oil

Monday saw a precipitous drop in oil prices, then that was followed by a sharp rise on Monday evening followed by smaller falls and rises yesterday as the on off ceasefire between Iran and Israel was absorbed. Apart from the supply of oil including petrol in one’s car, the implications for the stuttering global economy of a higher oil price for a sustained period and leading inevitably lastly to the consequent inflationary impact, the oil price is now the key barometer. Spare a thought for corporate treasurers exposed to the oil price as well as those oil traders trying to make sense of the events and announcements of the past few days. Brent stood at $60 at the beginning of May before rising briefly to $82 in Asian trading on Monday before falling back to $77 in Europe and then on the back of the ceasefire to $67. Taking those cumulative moves which add up to $37 on the base price of $60, being on the wrong side of all of them would be both painful and career ending.

GBP/USD 1.3605.

Heavy Metal

Nothing to do with music, this time it’s the French medical establishment that is exercised about the incidence of serious illness especially in young people due to their diets. Bread, potatoes and cereal can contain the heavy metal cadmium which causes a whole cocktail of horrors including cancer, heart disease, bone disease, kidney damage and fertility issues. Apart from France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Poland are all reporting raised level of illness caused by cadmium which is ingested having got into the food chain via soil and fertiliser. An education program is being introduced in France to encourage better diet and healthy eating rather than snacking on chip butties – if that’s a thing in La France Profonde.

EUR/JPY 168.05.

You’re So Vain

Happy Birthday to Carly Simon who turns 82 today. As is generally known especially by 70’s pop anoraks, this song was written by Carly Simon about Warren Beatty. However while not disclosing who they are the song is also about two other men. After all this time speculation as to their identities is hardly rife, but if it does come up in a pub quiz, Mick Jagger and James Taylor would be decent answers. Both definitely qualify as notches in the CS bedpost and on the grounds of personal vanity.

Son of a gun

You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht
Your hat strategically dipped below one eye
Your scarf it was apricot
You had one eye in the mirror, as you watched yourself gavotte
And all the girls dreamed that they’d be your partner
They’d be your partner and

You’re so vain
You probably think this song is about you

You’re so vain (you’re so vain)
I bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you, don’t you?

You had me several years ago when I was still quite naive
Well you said that we made such a pretty pair and that you would never leave
But you gave away the things you loved
And one of them was me
I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee, clouds in my coffee and
You’re so vain

You probably think this song is about you
You’re so vain, you’re so vain
I bet you think this song is about you
Don’t you don’t you, don’t you?

I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee, clouds in my coffee and
You’re so vain

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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