Daily Brief – Germany

Germany

In a scenario similar to those Germans bagging poolside sunloungers by getting up early, the German economy had a more than decent Q1 as the canny Germans got in ahead of the TT or Trump Tariffs. However, it has all come to a juddering halt in April as almost all economic indicators fell back led by production and exports. That very much underlines the need for the ECB to have cut rates last week. It remains to be seen however if President Lagarde manages to pause further cuts for that long before she is forced to accede to market forces.

EUR/USD 1.1398.

Unintended Consequences

The law is still throwing up examples with the latest being the US cutting overseas aid and it resulting in contraception supplies to poor countries being held up in warehouses from Belgium to Dubai as those cuts are implemented. Apart from unwanted pregnancies, there is also the issue of HIV cases rising. Ultimately the cost of those pills, condoms and IUDs will be far exceeded by the consequences of them not reaching their destinations and being deployed.

GBP/USD 1.3528.

Norway

Latest country to suffer from over tourism, Norway is going to implement a tourist tax shortly. Last year 38.6 million overseas visitors in search of its cool climate and the magic of the fjords visited Norway and notched up 12 million overnight stays. It’s unclear why there is such a marked discrepancy between the two numbers as surely not that many are day trippers from neighbouring Scandinavia countries. Norway has one of the highest GDP per capita numbers at USD 88,000 so the tourist tax is intended to be more of a disincentive than an economic Norway necessity.

EUR/GBP 0.8424.

Let them eat cake

2 chairs made for Marie Antoinette at Versailles Palace, France were bought by Qatari Price Mohammed Hamad Al Thani for USD 2 million to much fanfare and pride in France in 2010. It now transpires the chairs are fake prompting a diplomatic and financial brouhaha. Not much haha though for the Qataris.

EUR/JPY 165.06.

Time After Time

This day in 1984 Cyndi Lauper had a hit with this number which was her first success and went to the very top of the Billboard 100.

Lyin’ in my bed, I hear the clock tick and think of you
Caught up in circles, confusion is nothing new
Flashback, warm nights almost left behind
Suitcase of memories
Time after-

Sometimes you picture me, I’m walking too far ahead
You’re calling to me, I can’t hear what you’ve said
Then you say, “Go slow”, I fall behind
The second hand unwinds

If you’re lost, you can look, and you will find me
Time after time
If you fall, I will catch you, I’ll be waiting
Time after time

If you’re lost, you can look, and you will find me
Time after time
If you fall, I will catch you, I will be waiting
Time after time

After my picture fades and darkness has turned to gray
Watchin’ through windows, you’re wondering if I’m okay
Secrets stolen from deep inside
The drum beats out of time

If you’re lost, you can look, and you will find me
Time after time
If you fall, I will catch you, I’ll be waiting
Time after time

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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