Not an auspicious start
At the beginning of any political term, we often talk a lot about the first 100 days. It’s often something a candidate themselves is either questioned on or elects to comment on, telling the electorate what they will do if elected in their first 100 days in office. For elected candidates, the first 100 days is a focal point that the media latches onto to analyse the ambitions and impact of the new office holder. 100 days is slightly arbitrary, sure, but having a popular and repeated fixed period of reference to judge new candidates does have one thing going for it: the ability to compare the (mis)fortunes of new Prime Ministers and in the case of this particular morning brief, Presidents.
The 100th day of Trump’s second term as POTUS was 29th April. The supposedly market-, economy-, and Dollar-friendly President left the following legacy from his first hundred days of his second term: the worst first 100 days for US stock indices of any US President since 1974 when Gerald Ford replaced Richard Nixon. In terms of approval ratings, Trump would have had the worst post-war approval rating for this term but unfortunately Trump 2017 had a lower approval rating (41%) 100 days in. Trump 2025 therefore loses this title to Trump 2017 by a narrow 3%.
Whilst not unheard of in a President’s first 100 days, POTUS Donald Trump’s first 100 days have seen economic growth collapse, with the US economy registering its first quarter of contraction since 2022. Because the value of imports offsets against the value of exports in a growth calculation, this contraction was exacerbated by a flood of imports prior to the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. It is not certain therefore that this publication is the prelude to the declaration of a recession. Trump will hold the remedy to improving the economic fortunes of his next 100 days and the market is still guessing whether he will take it. GBPUSD sits at 1.33, 1% below its recent highs having failed to break through 1.3450 on Monday.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
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