Daily Brief – UK Economic Growth 2025

UK Economic Growth 2025

The range is from 0.5% to 1.6%. Funnily enough, and not sure what conclusions one can draw from this, the four most pessimistic forecasts are all banks – Nomura, UBS, NatWest and Barclays who lead the downbeat group at 0.5%. At the other end of the scale the acronym heavy ICAEW, OECD, NIESR and CBI all have the rose tinted specs firmly on with the Confederation of British Industry leading the pack at 1.6%. As ever, it does at least once again underline the gap between industry and finance.

GBP/USD 1.3315.

Unintended Consequences

Normally when one sees these words it can only mean something bad but hold on to your hats, this time it might just be good news for the EU. Trump tariffs or TT might just be good for the EU: why? Falling energy prices for a collection of countries that imports its energy is disinflationary as is the cost of imports given that on the back of a weakened USD the EUR has strengthened. Those excess goods being pumped out by China which are being re-routed and sold to the EU at cheaper prices are also going to bring down inflation. That in turn will increase the likelihood of the ECB cutting interest rates more and sooner which will provide a shot in the arm for EU productivity. 

EUR/USD 1.1365.

European Real Estate Investment

Wondering where the confluence of positives for European real investment lie being low property taxes with a max of 2.8%, high rental yields at 8.4% and low income and corporation tax with both at 12%? The answer for those with a strong disposition is Moldova. OK it’s somewhat close to Ukraine and has an uncertain political future being divided into the two camps of pro-Western and pro-Putin but it has all the prerequisites for adventurous risk takers. 

USD/JPY 143.67.

100 Years of Digestive Biscuits

Hard on the heels of the revelation that we have been enjoying digestive biscuits for 100 years is the news that manufacturer McVities is marking the event by setting up a pop up store at Piccadilly Circus, London W1 from May 2 to May 5. If that wasn’t enough we also learn that we have all been eating chocolate digestives in the wrong way. Of course there are only two ways: chocolate up or chocolate down, but by far the most common way is chocolate up which turns out to be wrong. Chocolate down according to Anthony Coulson biscuit boss of McVities improves the taste as one’s tongue and its myriad of taste buds will pick up the taste of chocolate much better.

EUR/GBP 0.8536.

Our Version of Events

Released in February 2012, Emili Sande entered the record books this day in 2013 for having a debut album in the Top 10 for the most weeks of any artist. In case it comes up in your Pub Quiz the previous holders of that accolade were the Beatles.

I guess it’s funnier from where you’re standing
‘Cause from over here I missed the joke
Clear the way for my crash landing
I’ve done it again
Another number for your notes

I’d be smiling if I wasn’t so desperate
I’d be patient if I had the time
I could stop and answer all of your questions
As soon as I find out how I can move from
The back of the line

I’ll be your clown
Behind the glass
Go ‘head and laugh
‘Cause it’s funny
I would too
If I saw me

I’ll be your clown
On your favourite channel
My life’s a circus, circus
Round in circles
I’m selling out tonght

I’d be less angry if it was my decision
And the money was just rolling in
If I had more than my ambition
I’ll have time for, “Please”
I’ll have time for, “Thank you’s”
As soon as I win

I’ll be your clown

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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