Daily Brief – China

China

FX has found some breathing room against the backdrop of a weaker Dollar. As we know, that weaker Dollar is largely created by two factors. Firstly, the Dollar losing its safe haven status and even attracting a risk premium as investors shield themselves from the uncertainty of President Trump’s tariff game. Secondly, again as a result of tariffs this time those already known, a risk to global and particularly US growth has decimated the prior economic narrative of US exceptionalism. China and its Renminbi however should stand out as an exception to that basket of foreign currencies benefitting from the declining Dollar.

That is, of course, because its economy is at the epicentre of the main tariff threat. With a pause taking effect in other singled out nations, the tariff threshold on Chinese imports only seems to be climbing. Speculation on China and Trump’s willingness to negotiate continues and Bessent’s current negotiations with Korea and Japan will serve as a proxy for the expectations of a future deal with China. Markets will also be evaluating China’s ability for exporters to reallocate surplus exports to markets where trading terms are more favourable.  

There is evident selling pressure within China’s Yuan. We can see that immediately from the decoupling of the offshore versus onshore Yuan with CNY/CNH spiking above 1 on several occasions. Intervention has swiftly brought the offshore Yuan in line with the onshore. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China has not allowed its daily band setting to slip higher despite evident selling pressure. Longer term, even with significant easing expectations from the PBoC itself, an expected deterioration in US benchmark rates may ultimately improve the long-term prospects of the Renminbi versus the Dollar despite short-term selling pressures.

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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