The removal of special advisor Dominic Cummings and the bubbling cauldron of tensions in Number 10 could show us a lot about Brexit. Number 10 does have a back door that photographers and journalists are banned from. Probably more than one in reality. So when Cummings was forced to walk out the big black door of Number Ten, tail between his legs and box in hands, we can be fairly sure the Prime Minister was sending a message. So what does making the master mind of the vote leave campaign and someone the media liked to portray as the government’s master puppeteer mean for the Pound?
Two things. Firstly, in the short run, Cummings’ very public dismissal presents a risk to the Prime Minister, his government and therefore the Pound. Before his appointment as special adviser Cummings kept a very public diary. His blog was his place to air his political ideas on everything from polling and forecasting to musings on the European Union. That same blog has remained stagnant and unpopulated since January this year and sparsely used during his period as adviser. With the broader stability of number 10 in question, it seems possible that Cummings could reopen his diary to scold Johnson. Some say he has even travelled to Barnard Castle to set up a lair in which to plot and mastermind the demise of his former advisee.. (Others don’t). Any reaction that harms political stability and the PM could undermine Sterling demand and thus its value.
With decades of surviving sticky situations both professionally and personally, any short run risk to Johnson can likely be discounted and spun as an embarrassed aid seeking revenge. What then might this change show us about the course of Brexit? Cummings’ dismissal followed a resignation by Lee Cain. If two events can be considered a theme then the evolution of Number 10’s staff is nodding towards a cognitive tilt on Brexit that might pave way to the removal of some red lines blocking the path to a Brexit deal. With the final week of intensified negotiations underway and an EU summit taking place virtually on Thursday and Friday, it appears the stars might be aligning for 28 signatures on a Brexit deal. With Sterling biding it’s time for more concrete progress there is still a considerable discount in the Pound that could unwind if a deal is passed.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Gold
Humphrey Percy
Mon 2 Mar 2026
Gold With Spot Gold at USD 5392, Friday saw not one but two US banks break cover and forecast that the price would reach USD 6000 by year end 2026. Indeed, JP Morgan has predicted it will reach USD 6300 a further 20% lurch up from here. Apart from Central Bank buying, the most cited […]
Daily Brief – Gold and Silver
Humphrey Percy
Wed 4 Feb 2026
Gold and Silver Due to the vertiginous moves in both these precious metals all markets are more than usually fixated on the price action at present. Yesterday, both steadied and clawed back some of the recent losses with Gold rising almost 6% and Silver 10% to USD 4921, and USD 86.70 respectively at the time […]
Daily Brief – US Markets
Humphrey Percy
Mon 23 Feb 2026
US Markets As we settled into the weekend USD was enjoying a fourth day of strengthening, US GDP came in at 1.4% instead of the 3% expected by analysts and US inflation at 2.4% all added up to just a normal Friday in US markets. Then the Supreme Court decision came in deeming POTUS’ tariffs […]
