GBP…and where to over the next few weeks?
At the beginning of Valentine week (following the week that was) it is timely to remind ourselves of what the various outcomes could mean from the UK Parliament vote as and when it occurs. The chart below struck me as being useful and thanks to our friends at RBC CM who have collated it.
Possible scenarios and potential Sterling outcomes: worth preparing given that it now looks as if the Prime Minister’s plan is to tell Parliament that a vote will be pushed out from Thursday for at least two weeks.
Markets start the week with a further US Government Shutdown looking increasingly likely following Congressional talks running into trouble and the Democrats and Republicans rumoured not to be talking to each other over the weekend. Stock markets around the world closed last week mostly either small up or down with FTSE +0.73%, Dow +0.17% but with the Nikkei -2.40% despite the Hang Seng more positively at +1.36%-the Chinese market came back in a positive frame of mind after their New Year celebrations.
In Currency world GBP after some see saw days in the past couple of weeks remains steady and unchanged against USD and EUR and ZAR. That could come to an abrupt halt with increased volatility later in the week once the debate restarts on Brexit and the UK’s increasingly fractious relationship with Brussels. NB Brussels not necessarily all of Europe!
So in Rick’s words:
The Prime Minister is no doubt hoping that the Conservative Party this week of all weeks is:
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Onto June A slew of strong US economic data over recent weeks had boosted expectations for how the culmination of the Fed’s two-day meeting would be presented to the public last night. The story goes back further. The narrative dominant in late-2023 of a US economy in need of restrictive monetary policy was unavoidable. The […]
Germany and the EU The Germany Supply Chain Act came into force in 2023 as a result of Germans wanting to do something good for employees in other countries in particular with respect to human rights and environmental issues. So far so good. But a combination of cost and bureaucracy overlaid with the difficulty of […]
Emergency Stop In the early hours of trading on Monday morning, sudden and significant buying pressure within USDJPY has markets wondering: is this the signal that local authorities are taking another stab at active market intervention? In a critical week for FX, with central bank decisions and a slew of top-level economic data from across […]