As Brexit dominates the Pound, economics and monetary policy dominates the Dollar, and political scandal dominates the Rand, FX markets may start sounding like a broken record. However, one should remain very much aware that this repetition and almost paradigmatic taxonomy of certain currencies is more fragile than it may seem. Even the slightest amelioration or deterioration of the current situation could have phenomenal or catastrophic consequences for the respective currency. The Dollar has been the unquestionable winner so far this week as markets reprice their approach to the Chairmanship of Jay Powell. Sterling meanwhile has been caught in the doldrums, threatened by a Dollar that currently trades at 1.3750 against the Pound and 1.1280 against the Euro. The Rand has weakened off mildly following a disappointing and somewhat frustrating cabinet reshuffle. The Rand now trades close to 16.40 against the Pound, 11.92 against the Dollar, whilst clinging on just above 14.50 against the Euro.
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The only way is $ The Dollar has served as the first-choice safe haven currency during this latest bout of geopolitical risk. Safe havens need to exhibit lower levels of volatility during times of elevated risk and, on balance, exhibit a negative price correlation with perceived risk. As geopolitical risk was on the rise over […]
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Where’s the Beta Amongst FX, there exist currencies known as ‘commodity currencies’. This isn’t a fixed basket of currencies, however, particular candidates spring to mind when the group are mentioned. The foremost amongst the G10 are the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. These currencies are so-called because they typically exhibit a positive correlation with […]
Daily Brief – Forgiven
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Forgiven Even with an equity correction underway at the start of yesterday’s session, it still appeared that the market was under-pricing the risk of a protracted conflict in the Middle East. FX and fixed income asset classes had reacted more severely with stronger defensive bids into currencies including the Dollar and Franc, but still the […]
