The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected with a 1.8% increase for January, but the figure was inflated by aircraft orders and underlying sales declined 0.2% on the month following a revised 0.9% gain for January. Pending home sales data was weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January which pushed annual growth to 12- month lows. The Euro rallied to highs around 1.0630 after the US data as the dollar faded slightly.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should increase interest rates in the near future which helped boost speculation of a rate hike in March with futures markets indicating the chances of a move had increased to around 50%. The shift helped underpin the dollar and the Euro retreated below 1.0600 and held just below this level on Tuesday.
Weren’t Tariffs USD Negative? The Dollar proved sensitive to headlines regarding trade during the US overnight session. However, contrary to what many commentaries would have you believe, as the risk of tariffs escalated the Dollar rose. The 90-day pause following Trump’s April ‘liberation day’ tariffs had been set to expire this coming Wednesday. To the […]
Dollar Reserves With the passing of Trump’s original deadline for the reimposition of liberation day tariffs yesterday, markets have breathed a sigh of relief. July VIX futures continued to slide lower. Moreover, what may surprise anyone who had been expecting the issue of tariffs to resurface following the passing of Trump’s new deadline, so too […]
Big Girls Don’t Cry A bond market tantrum and one of the sharpest one day sell offs in Sterling for several years appear to have been catalysed by the Chancellor’s appearance in PMQs yesterday. First: the back story. This Labour government has faced some embarrassment in recent weeks trying to get its welfare bill through […]