A public holiday today Stateside provides welcome relieft for the Greenback. The USD has been confirmed as the worst performing G10 currency in the first 6 months of the year according to Rabobank and is threatening to continue its poor performance into the back end of 2017.
Prima facie, one may place the blame on the Dollar decline solely with President Trump however looking at the hard data the economy simply hasn’t picked up as much as intially expected.
Central to this is the now increased market scepticism as to weather the Fed willl be able to announce a third rate hike by the end of the year.
Reversal out of long USD positions is also a function of an improvement in European fundamentals [i.e. political risk] which have driven money back accross the Atlantic. This has seen EUR trade to its highest since May 2016 against the Dollar and is predicted to end the year at 1.1700.
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Forgiven
Charles Porter
Tue 10 Mar 2026
Forgiven Even with an equity correction underway at the start of yesterday’s session, it still appeared that the market was under-pricing the risk of a protracted conflict in the Middle East. FX and fixed income asset classes had reacted more severely with stronger defensive bids into currencies including the Dollar and Franc, but still the […]
Daily Brief – Where’s the Beta
Charles Porter
Thu 12 Mar 2026
Where’s the Beta Amongst FX, there exist currencies known as ‘commodity currencies’. This isn’t a fixed basket of currencies, however, particular candidates spring to mind when the group are mentioned. The foremost amongst the G10 are the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. These currencies are so-called because they typically exhibit a positive correlation with […]
Daily Brief – Fade America
Charles Porter
Thu 26 Feb 2026
Fade America There have been times during Trump’s second term that have had markets and financial commentators alike calling for an era of ‘sell-America’. Sell-America is the notion describing a scenario in which investor sentiment sours towards the US so much so that valuations across US assets decline. This is a unique scenario because many […]
