SGM-FX insights

  At 09:30 yesterday morning, the Pound was in momentary free fall as investors priced out the positive risk of an increase in interest rates in May and into 2019. As the imperative monetary policy decision on the 10th May draws ever closer, analysis and qualifications of future inflation expectations will be highly salient to […]

  Following yesterday’s chronic bout of Sterling weakness, the Pound has opened weaker for the second consecutive day this week. Yesterday evening saw the heads of state of Commonwealth nations gather together at an event in London hosted by the UK Prime Minster Theresa May. As the market opens this morning, investors appear uncertain whether […]

  The European sovereign debt crisis that gripped the eurozone at the beginning of this decade has left the bloc with rose tinted spectacles. During the crisis, the economic performance of key Eurozone member states tumbled considerably. Shown in the Graph below, the economic growth rate within previously flourishing and affluent member states tumbled during […]

  The Pound Sterling has flipped back and forth from an infatuation with politics, to an inescapable reliance upon economics. The phenomenon is partially responsible for creating the unprecedented channel trade that GBPEUR has crabbed along over the last six months. Supported at a little above 1.1050 on several occasions in October, the GBPEUR cross […]

  The Euro may have rightly earned its default position of strength and power that is so frequently actively and passively attributed to it when discussing Brexit. One of the principal arguments for forming a monetary Union is security, risk sharing and solidarity. When FX markets must move so freely in developed economies, why not band […]

  The 21-month transition deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union has been struck, announced, and hailed by Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart, David Davis. The Pound rallied and equity markets spluttered, but make no mistake, no progress has been made.   In fact, the outcome of one year of tense negotiation […]

  Fasten your seat-belt, hold the nearest handrail, dump your equities, your Dollars and grab all of the Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen and Gold you can get your hands on. Ignoring the former two imperatives designed to do little more than compensate for the impotence of the latter requests, the above risk-off strategy could be […]

As the President’s cabinet comes to look more and more modelled upon a revolving door policy, market volatility has increased somewhat. Rex Tillerson became a household name as a symbolic and quintessential original appointment within the Trump administration’s cabinet. The former CEO of ExxonMobil of ten years forfeited much of his participation in the private […]

  Over the past couple of days, Sterling has enjoyed two optimistic and seemingly genuine rallies that have ultimately all but dissipated within a matter of hours. Yesterday, Robin Walker, the Undersecretary of State for the Department for Exiting the European Union, or David Davis’ sidekick as he might be better known, suggested that the […]

  The European Central Bank has done very little to benefit the Euro in the past days and weeks. Following the ECB Bank Rate decision on the 8th March the Euro has underperformed. The rhetoric that emerged during the early afternoon press conference following the monetary policy decision has been sustained by a number of […]

… Not for the Rand!   The political overhaul in South Africa is mesmeric. The entrenchment of the previous incumbent regime throughout society, trade and politics was hard to understate. The release of the African National Congress from the grips of Zuma and his family afforded the Rand considerable value, propelling the Rand down from […]

As Brexit dominates the Pound, economics and monetary policy dominates the Dollar, and political scandal dominates the Rand, FX markets may start sounding like a broken record. However, one should remain very much aware that this repetition and almost paradigmatic taxonomy of certain currencies is more fragile than it may seem. Even the slightest amelioration […]