According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.
Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations would prevent a rise in the inflation rate. Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should raise interest rates again sooner rather than later with rates increasing in a gradual and patient manner.
The dollar’s trade-weighted index hit the highest level for over three weeks and the Euro dipped to test support below the 1.0600 level as strong risk appetite curbed Euro support.
Commentary from Fed Chair Yellen will be watched very closely on Tuesday with markets currently putting the chances of a March interest rate increase at around 22%.
Any hints of a March hike would provide further net dollar support as the Euro edged back above 1.0600 on a wider US retracement.
Forgiven Even with an equity correction underway at the start of yesterday’s session, it still appeared that the market was under-pricing the risk of a protracted conflict in the Middle East. FX and fixed income asset classes had reacted more severely with stronger defensive bids into currencies including the Dollar and Franc, but still the […]
Fade America There have been times during Trump’s second term that have had markets and financial commentators alike calling for an era of ‘sell-America’. Sell-America is the notion describing a scenario in which investor sentiment sours towards the US so much so that valuations across US assets decline. This is a unique scenario because many […]
Sell first, question later The jury is still out on whether the initial “sell everything” reaction to a sudden increase in geopolitical risk has concluded. Certainly, some volatility remains which serves as an indication that trading conditions have not calmed whilst markets continue to question how this chapter of US military intervention ends. Emerging markets […]