According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.
Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations would prevent a rise in the inflation rate. Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should raise interest rates again sooner rather than later with rates increasing in a gradual and patient manner.
The dollar’s trade-weighted index hit the highest level for over three weeks and the Euro dipped to test support below the 1.0600 level as strong risk appetite curbed Euro support.
Commentary from Fed Chair Yellen will be watched very closely on Tuesday with markets currently putting the chances of a March interest rate increase at around 22%.
Any hints of a March hike would provide further net dollar support as the Euro edged back above 1.0600 on a wider US retracement.
What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care? At heart, the Mar-a-Lago Accord is a proposal for President Trump to weaken the US Dollar. As we know, Trump’s typical deregulatory and risk-inducing persuasion would, all other things equal, increase demand for the US Dollar. As far as the relationship between perceived risk and the […]
Blinkers on The Federal Reserve published its latest interest rate decision last night. As widely expected, it made no change to current benchmark rates. The Fed funds rate therefore remains within a restrictive 4.25-4.5% target band. The Fed did make some marginal changes to its balance sheet operations, tweaking some caps on treasury redemptions. But […]
Where’s the Trump Put? On Tuesday Trump went some way towards remediating for his comments that appeared to show a disregard for a recession over the weekend. In a Fox News interview on Sunday the President declined to rule out the prospect of a recession, contributing to the stock market decline come Monday. For what […]