According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.
Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations would prevent a rise in the inflation rate. Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should raise interest rates again sooner rather than later with rates increasing in a gradual and patient manner.
The dollar’s trade-weighted index hit the highest level for over three weeks and the Euro dipped to test support below the 1.0600 level as strong risk appetite curbed Euro support.
Commentary from Fed Chair Yellen will be watched very closely on Tuesday with markets currently putting the chances of a March interest rate increase at around 22%.
Any hints of a March hike would provide further net dollar support as the Euro edged back above 1.0600 on a wider US retracement.
One in three Until recently, the market had held the probability of a rate cut at the Bank of England’s November meeting at near zero. Above-target inflation and insufficient evidence of faltering economic growth alone suggested the BoE would continue to adopt a wait and see approach. Combine that with the uncertainty of the UK […]
Grinding lower The key currency pairs of GBPUSD and EURUSD continue their slow but consistent grind lower. This story is not just one of dollar strength but also a rotation away from GBP and EUR, in favour of safe havens. Under performance in global equity markets continues to be a factor behind the market’s general […]
A glimmer of (European) hope The ECB has made significant progress in cutting rates towards an accommodative level. The Eurozone saw evidence of cooling inflation much sooner than many economies and has been able to respond accordingly, cutting the deposit rate to 2%. The ECB will meet again this Thursday to publish its latest monetary […]