Daily Brief – What the Trump-Putin meet up means for markets
Charles PorterThu 14 Aug 2025
What the Trump-Putin meet up means for markets
Tomorrow a US military base in Alaska will play host to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This date has been known for some time with POTUS taking to his chosen and own social media platform, Truth social, in order to announce the news. What’s changed in the week or so since that announcement was made are the expectations for success at that meeting. As the details have unfolded, confidence in the ability of this meeting to either secure peace, or at least pave the way towards a meaningful ceasefire, has grown.
Despite a significant sell off in the US Dollar in recent sessions, largely driven by concerns in some way or another regarding monetary policy, expectations for a successful meeting amount to a net USD positive. It’s a positive for global trade too as the prospect of peace between Ukraine and Russia will limit the White House’s perception of the need for secondary and direct sanctions that Trump has spoken of again recently. Prior to tomorrow’s meeting, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will meet in Downing Street today with UK PM Keir Starmer.
It was also confirmed yesterday that Trump will hold a conversation with the Ukrainian PM. This creates the expectation that Trump may actually keep in mind the Ukrainian President’s win-set for such talks. Such moves have helped to bolster confidence in tomorrow’s talks whilst observers speculate a more palatable deal for both warring nations could be achieved. Politically, Putin needs a win from his efforts in Ukraine so will be in a grab for territory. For obvious reasons, Ukraine will be unwilling to accept large swathes of land grabs. However, it will be mindful that much of the land Russia is hoping to take control of formally is already under Russia’s military control. Given that expectations for a deal from tomorrow’s meeting have grown, markets may be vulnerable to disappointing news from the negotiations should it materialise.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Delayed fuse
Charles Porter
Thu 30 Apr 2026
Delayed fuse Last night’s Federal Reserve decision held all the potential requirements for a momentous occasion. Markets had been ascribing a high value to the event with options pricing suggesting the decision posed a significant risk towards exposed assets. Ultimately, the potential swan song publication of Chair Jay Powell passed without incident. Claims from some […]
Daily Brief – Cancelled Travel Plans
Charles Porter
Thu 23 Apr 2026
Cancelled Travel Plans No, this time not because of the impending jet fuel crisis threatening continental travel as we discussed yesterday. Instead, I’m referring to the grounding of Vice President Vance whose trip to Islamabad, Pakistan was cancelled on Tuesday to avoid embarrassment. The Vice President was expected to travel on Tuesday to resume talks […]
Daily Brief – Sterling defence
Charles Porter
Tue 28 Apr 2026
Sterling defence Options markets are flashing warning signals for Sterling. It’s no secret that the forthcoming Bank of England monetary policy decision later this week poses a risk for the Pound. However, there are risks mounting further afield. The local elections on May 7th are a material risk for GBP, for example, with traders concerned the […]
