Daily Brief – What the Trump-Putin meet up means for markets
Charles PorterThu 14 Aug 2025
What the Trump-Putin meet up means for markets
Tomorrow a US military base in Alaska will play host to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This date has been known for some time with POTUS taking to his chosen and own social media platform, Truth social, in order to announce the news. What’s changed in the week or so since that announcement was made are the expectations for success at that meeting. As the details have unfolded, confidence in the ability of this meeting to either secure peace, or at least pave the way towards a meaningful ceasefire, has grown.
Despite a significant sell off in the US Dollar in recent sessions, largely driven by concerns in some way or another regarding monetary policy, expectations for a successful meeting amount to a net USD positive. It’s a positive for global trade too as the prospect of peace between Ukraine and Russia will limit the White House’s perception of the need for secondary and direct sanctions that Trump has spoken of again recently. Prior to tomorrow’s meeting, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will meet in Downing Street today with UK PM Keir Starmer.
It was also confirmed yesterday that Trump will hold a conversation with the Ukrainian PM. This creates the expectation that Trump may actually keep in mind the Ukrainian President’s win-set for such talks. Such moves have helped to bolster confidence in tomorrow’s talks whilst observers speculate a more palatable deal for both warring nations could be achieved. Politically, Putin needs a win from his efforts in Ukraine so will be in a grab for territory. For obvious reasons, Ukraine will be unwilling to accept large swathes of land grabs. However, it will be mindful that much of the land Russia is hoping to take control of formally is already under Russia’s military control. Given that expectations for a deal from tomorrow’s meeting have grown, markets may be vulnerable to disappointing news from the negotiations should it materialise.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – The Hassett Trade
Charles Porter
Thu 4 Dec 2025
The Hassett Trade Not another one, I hear you say. So far this year we’ve seen bandied around the TACO trade, the Trump put, FOMO trade, the MEGA trade, surely there isn’t another to surface before year end?! Wrong. The so-called Hassett trade is that which is currently pushing the Dollar lower but coming to […]
Daily Brief – A week out
Charles Porter
Tue 2 Dec 2025
A week out Markets are now in their final few trading days ahead of a Fed blackout that will precede the Reserve’s decision next Wednesday. The US government shutdown, despite now feeling like a distant memory, continues to weigh on the Dollar and market pricing in general. In particular, as we approach the decision next […]
Daily Brief – OBR: Oops, Budget Released
Charles Porter
Thu 27 Nov 2025
OBR: Oops, Budget Released Traders who might have been out grabbing a coffee ahead of the planned publication of the UK budget yesterday afternoon would have returned to chaos. Reuters, a popular financial news agency, revealed that although not directly discoverable via a link on their website, the OBR had published its report on Chancellor […]
