Daily Brief – US Dollar

US Dollar

If you are struggling to understand the US Administration’s Dollar policy, then you are far from being alone. Last week, POTUS when asked about the weakening US Dollar and whether it had declined too much replied that he thought it “Just great.” That prompted Treasury secretary Bessent to try to calm markets on Wednesday this week when he said that the USA continued to have a strong Dollar policy. In theory, a weaker USD makes the USA more competitive because its exports are cheaper but conversely it makes imports more expensive and imports inflation. Such is the danger with which POTUS is flirting and the level of distrust markets have for both him and Secretary Bessent, that the USD yesterday weakened further despite those reassurances from the Treasury Secretary. Yesterday, there was talk of a further 20% depreciation in the USD which would take GBP/USD to 1.66 which is a level that has not been seen since April 2014.

GBP/USD 1.3835.

Copper

Yesterday it was the turn of Copper to soar when it shot up to USD 14,000 per ton. Just two months ago at the end of November it stood at USD 11,000 per ton. Demand from AI, electronic chips, and power construction means that there is no sign of the price pulling back – yet. However, like all markets that show such spectacular rises in a short time, the price will be subject to corrections and inevitably in this climate, those corrections will be sharp.

EUR/USD 1.1960.

Pesticide Action Network (PAN) Europe

New research is highly critical of the EU approach to risk when it comes to apples. No less than 13 countries have identified a cocktail of pesticide residues in apples but also in other fruit and vegetables in Belgium, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Switzerland. Unclear what to make of it all but apparently if these contaminated fruit and vegetables were sold as baby food i.e. for under 3-year-olds, 93% of it would not meet health standards. Meanwhile, the rest of us continue mostly in blissful ignorance of what PAN has discovered.

EUR/GBP 0.8651.

The Parallel Universe We Live In

This time it’s an employment in Watford that needs calling out: in short in 2024 the driver of a Number 206 Metroline London bus travelling between Wembley and Maida Vale witnessed a man boarding his bus, tearing a necklace off a female passenger, and then scampering. The driver, Mark Hehir chased the man and retrieved the necklace which he returned to the passenger. The thief re-appeared at that point and punched Mark Hehir who defended himself returning blows and then subduing the thief. Restraining the thief until the police arrived, Mark Hehir was told he would face no action. Imagine his surprise to be suspended and then dismissed because the thief’s defence was that he was returning to apologize to the passenger. Now the tribunal has upheld his dismissal for bringing Metroline into disrepute, punching the thief and leaving the bus unattended.

EUR/JPY 183.27.

The Pop Personality You Would Most Want as Your Doctor

A poll was taken by the New Musical Express this day in 1999 and however improbable the question, the runaway winner was perhaps even more improbable: Australian chanteuse Natalie Imbruglia. Those readers with a good memory might dig deep and recall that perhaps equally unlikely and possibly an indication for NI’s capacity to surprise was back in the day her romancing Liberal Democrat MP for Montgomeryshire in Wales Lembit Opik who has most recently reinvented himself as a member of Reform.

You live your life, you live like an island
Satisfied, you live for the moment
Here you come, you make it look easy
I bet you smile in your sleep, are you smiling at me?

You live your life, you live like an island
Surrounded by water and silence
Mm, there you go, you make it look easy
I bet you laugh at yourself, are you laughing at me?

‘Cause sometimes anything goes
When you’re looking at me
And sometimes everything goes
When you’re looking at me

So come on, come on, everything goes
When you’re looking at me
Come on, come on, everything goes
Sometimes when you’re smiling at me
Come on, come on, everything goes, come on

You live your life, you live like an island
What is it like? I wish I could hold it
Mm, there you go, making it look easy
I bet you like how it feels but do you feel me?

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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