Daily Brief – UK Unemployment by Numbers

UK Unemployment by Numbers

Work and Pensions Minister Pat Mcfadden defined the art of politics when he announced that 329,000 people “had moved into work” this year and that this was part of the plan to “get Britain working”. The Office of National statistics saw things a bit differently. While not disputing the Minister’s claim, since more people had moved out of work than into work with payrolled employees falling in number by 109,000, the Office of National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate had risen above the expected small rise of 4.9% to 5%. With 1.7 million claiming unemployment benefits and Job Vacancies stuck at 723,000 the claim that the Minister was getting Britain working was a bit more than a stretch. However, what Minister McFadden did not mention and doubtless the MPC and in particular Governor Bailey of the Bank will be focused on is Wage Growth: private sector wage growth stands at +4.2% but public sector wage growth is at an unsustainable +6.6%. Those figures alone will need to be much more under control for interest rates to be (credibly) cut before year end and reduce the pressure on Chancellor Reeves.

EUR/USD 1.1565.

Belgian Drones

In case it has passed you by, Belgium has suffered significant disruption to its airports in the past week by the flying of drones in particular at both Brussels and Liege airports, causing the diversion and cancellation of large numbers of flights. Belgium has put out a call to other countries and some have responded including the UK which has experience of dealing with drones most recently last year at Gatwick. Theories vary as to who is behind the drones but the most credible is that it is Russia that is sponsoring the drone flights in response to its financial assets of EUR 140 billion being frozen by Belgium’s Euroclear and currently being packaged up as security for a reparations loan to Ukraine.

GBP/USD 1.3128.

UK Inflation Index

As we know UK Inflation as of 30-09-25 stands at 3.8% which is its highest level for nearly 2 years when it was 4% in January 2024. Every so often the components that make up the Inflation Index are reviewed and if necessary adjusted. In 2025, it is instructive to note that the following were removed: DVD Rentals, Local Newspaper advertisements, and fresh Minced Turkey. Certainly, the DVD rentals and Local Newspaper advertisements seem anachronistic to say the least but fresh Minced Turkey has been removed as consumers have replaced it with leaner protein options and plant based alternatives. When it comes to additions to the index Pulled Pork is in despite not seeming obvious as a healthier alternative to the turkey mince; Mens’ Pool Sandals also make it which presumably is a reflection of warmer summers and British men losing their shyness when it comes to sandals – no indication of whether socks are sported at the same time as the sandals although there must be a chance since mens’ socks are indeed part of the index included in the clothes section. Next are Virtual Reality Headsets which is a surprise given that we had not realised that they were sufficiently widely owned and used. Last newcomer is the Yoga Mat which deservedly earns its place.

GBP/EUR 1.1345.

New Bee

Australian scientists have identified a new species of bee that they have named the Lucifer bee. The bee was discovered in the Western Goldfields area which is almost 500kms east of Perth and has distinctive horns on its face. There are fears that the species may be short lived due to the small area in which it has been found so wildflower meadows are being cordoned off to encourage the Lucifer bee species to propagate.

EUR/JPY 178.48.

Somebody to Love

This day in 1976 Queen released their 5^th studio album A Day at The Races and this number was the standout hit for Freddie Mercury and the band.

Can anybody find me somebody to love?
Each morning I get up, I die a little
Can barely stand on my feet (take a look at yourself)
Take a look in the mirror and cry (in the mirror and cry, yeah-yeah)
Lord, what you’re doing to me?
I have spent all my years in believing you
But I just can’t get no relief, Lord
Somebody (somebody)
Ooh, somebody (somebody)
Can anybody find me somebody to love?
Yeah
I work hard (he works hard) every day of my life
I work ’til I ache in my bones
At the end (at the end of the day)
I take home (goes home) my hard-earned pay all on my own (goes home on his own)

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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