Daily Brief – Germany

Germany

Good news for beleaguered German Chancellor Friedrich Merz as the German GDP forecast is lifted from 0.5% to 1.3% for 2026.The car industry may be enduring torrid trading conditions, the Strait of Hormuz may be mostly shut, but the German economy has been boosted by strong foreign trade numbers with exports showing an increase of 3.7% versus a decline the previous year of 0.9%. As the locomotive pulling the long and ever-lengthening EU train, this is positive news for the EU as a whole.

EUR/USD 1.1204.

Oil

In case you are wondering why Oil has shot up (again), it is mostly down to POTUS once more contemplating air strikes on Iran although details as ever are sparse to date and could even be POTUS seeking to project strength ahead of what are likely to be damaging for his US mid term elections next month. Other factors weighing on then oil price are 1. Iran increasing its attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and 2. Hurricane Isaias prompting American refineries to shut down capacity of as much as 500,000 barrels per day of Mexican Gulf production ( or Gulf of America as POTUS would have it called) ahead of the hurricane coming ashore.

Brent Oil USD 105.20.

Carlsberg Britvic

Despite Burton being known as the beer capital of the UK for centuries, that cuts no ice or even yeast with Marstons Brewery owner Carlsberg Britvic announcing that it is calling time since it is more focused on the demand for cask beer evaporating. 310 jobs are affected but it is rather more the ending of an era for Burton. Beer buffs will mourn the loss of Marstons earthy eggy smell known in brewing circles as “Burton snatch.”

GBP/USD 1.3215.

Bedbugs and Pesticides

A thoughtful piece in last week’s Economist magazine posed the question of whether bedbugs have built up sufficient resistance to pesticides over time to render them ineffective. Doubtless, commuters on South Eastern railways had wondered the same given the recent outbreak of the biters on some of their trains. SE have intervened and withdrawn the affected trains from service until the bedbugs have been eradicated. For those commuters who were literally itching to get to work/to their homes and were unaware why, a steam cleaning their clothes might well be in order.

GBP/EUR 1.1798.

Je t’aime….Moi Non Plus

This day in 1969 for the first time ever, the producers of BBC TV’s Top of the Pops refused to play this sultry night club standard by Frenchman Serge Gainsbourg and English actress singer Jane Birkin. Then record label Fontana dropped the song for it to be taken up by minuscule record label Major Minor whose bet paid off when the French song stormed up the charts.

Je t’aime, je t’aime, oh, oui je t’aime
Moi non plus
Oh mon amour
Comme la vague irrésolue
Je vais, je vais et je viens
Entre tes reins
Je vais et je viens
Entre tes reins
Et je me retiens
Je t’aime, je t’aime, oh, oui je t’aime
Moi non plus
Oh mon amour
Tu es la vague, moi l’île nue
Tu vas, tu vas et tu viens
Entre mes reins
Tu vas et tu viens
Entre mes reins
Et je te rejoins
Je t’aime, je t’aime, oh, oui je t’aime
Moi non plus
Oh, mon amour
Comme la vague irrésolue
Je vais, je vais et je viens
Entre tes reins
Je vais et je viens
Entre tes reins
Et je me retiens

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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