Daily Brief – China and the USA

China and the USA

What prompted POTUS to escalate the trade war last week? Before answering that, it is worth a refresh on the current state of play: US tariffs on China average 58% and China on the US 33%, and the next cliffhanger date is November 10, after which the current threat is for the USA to impose 100% or more tariffs on a whole range of Chinese goods. To answer the trigger for the red mist that affected first POTUS and then markets last week, one only has to look at Rare Earths and the fact that China has a stranglehold producing more than 90% and controlling more than 70% of the world market. Talks at APEC between the two countries’ leaders at the end of this month or alternatively in Beijing in January look to be in question ahead of clarity on the November 10 outcome.

EUR/USD 1.1561.

Silver

On Monday Silver settled at USD50.13 for the first time overtaking the previous 1980 high of USD48.70, when earlier in my career I had as one of my daily tasks to re-value the bank’s security where I worked at the time. Those were during the heady days when that bank along with a number of others had lent money to Nelson and Lamar Hunt the infamous Texan oil family brothers who had set out to corner the world’s Silver market. At first, all went well with the Hunt brothers buying up physical gold and then using those stocks as security to buy futures and options on margin. The film Trading Places is a good way to learn about the story and not wishing to spoil it for you all I will say is that it was an exciting time and taught me about market forces and liquidity. Silver, in case you are wondering, is primarily used for industry (30%), solar (20%), physical investment (15%), jewellery, and silverware (15%), exchange traded funds (10%), and the rest down the back of the sofa. Silver would need to reach USD200 to eclipse the 1980 level to allow for inflation, but so far this year has risen from USD28.89 to its current level i.e. an increase of 72% eclipsing the rise in the price of Gold which has “only” increased 56% in 2025.

GBP/USD 1.3268.

Europe’s Most Dangerous Cities

As judged by the somewhat less than perfect and somewhat subjective Citizens’ Crime Index – whatever that might be, the top 30 most dangerous European cities have been ranked. The UK features with 6, France with 8, Italy with 4, Spain, Ireland and Belgium with 2 and a sprinkling of Eastern European cities making up the balance. Regrettably, of the UK’s 6 entries Bradford is judged as the Number 1 most dangerous city in Europe narrowly beating France’s Marseilles into 2nd place, and Coventry and Birmingham are 3rd, and 4th respectively. As ever, it’s where you go in a metropolitan area and of course at what time of the day or night.

EUR/GBP 0.8713.

The Old Forge, Inverie

This pub which rejoices in being the most remote pub in the UK is located in the Knoydart Peninsula, North West Scotland. To reach Inverie, The Old Forge and its population of 130 involves either a 29km walk or a 11km sea crossing. So, when the Old Forge announced it was holding a Harry Potter themed Halloween Night, one might have assumed that it would be greeted with approval. Not so, given the strong gender critical views expressed by JK Rowling which have caused sharply divided if not incendiary feelings in the Knoydart Peninsula, and the pub management instead of a lock in have scrapped the whole evening. Less witches and warlocks and more crotchety crofters – if not cottaging…

EUR/JPY 175.86.

Like a Virgin

Here’s a bit of a time warp: on this day in 2013 just 12 short years ago, 55 year old pop legend Madonna was watching the film 12 Years a Slave at the Alamo Cinema as part of the New York Film Festival. An audience member took exception to her texting during the film screening and following a complaint being made Madonna was banned from visiting the Alamo Cinema chain until such time as she apologised. So woke so archaic so American and lastly so 2013. History does not relate whether Madge apologised.

I made it through the wilderness
Somehow I made it through
Didn’t know how lost I was
Until I found you
I was beat
Incomplete
I’d been had, I was sad and blue
But you made me feel
Yeah, you made me feel
Shiny and new
Hoo, like a virgin
Touched for the very first time
Like a virgin
When your heart beats
Next to mine
Gonna give you all my love, boy
My fear is fading fast
Been saving it all for you
‘Cause only love can last
You’re so fine
And you’re mine
Make me strong, yeah you make me bold
For your love thawed out
Yeah, your love thawed out
What was scared and cold
Like a virgin, hey

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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