A return to data
So far, this trading week has been characterised by a lack of salient data publications. In the absence of such data, markets have been more sensitive to news headlines and political developments. That certainly hasn’t left markets directionless with both of these drivers more plentiful than ever, largely due to POTUS. Today marks a shift in the economic calendar with heavy hitting data publications scheduled today and tomorrow. Amongst major data including unemployment and PPI in the US, some typically less market sensitive data may find greater meaning.
Retail sales, for example, is an important but often not market or session defining publication. Well, now that the market and indeed world jury is out to find out how the US consumer reacted to Trump’s tariffs, it should have a newfound importance. So far, since April 2nd, hard data on the US consumer hasn’t been observed. We have seen exports into the US weather the storm better than expected but it is pivotal to test how the US consumer is reacting in the face of higher import costs. Today, the retail sales consensus forecast for April shows a 0% month-on-month change. That compares with a 1.4% MoM growth in March. A downside surprise to this data may reinvigorate a sell-America narrative as recessionary risks would be priced in.
One such headline that has driven markets came during the US session yesterday. A Bloomberg publication revealed that a person familiar with the matter has claimed that a currency accord to weaken the Dollar has not been present in current negotiations. A jump higher in the Dollar overnight recovers some of this week’s losses and has endured into this morning’s session. Given that Trump has rolled back tariffs close to pre-inauguration in some cases and at least pre-liberation day levels in most, it would become hard to justify the heavy discount that remains in the Dollar. It becomes significantly harder again to do so if the assumption of Dollar devaluation by design in trade negations isn’t happening.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
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