Daily Brief – A Fork in The Road?

A Fork in The Road?

Well that was UK PM SirKeir’s “rallying” cry to the UK electorate: it’s me or Reform. Hmm. In a bit of a mixed day for the UK government with some poor Q2 UK economic growth figures at 0.3% after a better Q1 at 0.7%. Then keynote speeches from the UK Chancellor who started the week blaming the Conservative predecessor government for her problems and went on after issuing the ritual soundbites that her party expects, to leave the door open on tax rises in the Autumn Statement who was then followed by the Prime Minister. It is easy to see just why SirKeir has problems as he unerringly chose the very worst small political mound to make an even smaller stand on: the other lot – Reform – are bad and Nigel Farage is a snake oil salesman. A chance missed to seize the moment and state what both the UK Chancellor and importantly what he stands for as Prime Minister. Sterling cemented the end of the worst quarter for 5 years. I did say it was mixed: somewhere between poor and bad, and that was without his own MPs weighing in which by the time that you read this, they will no doubt feel impelled to do.

GBP/USD 1.3448.

Lumber, Bathroom Cabinets and Films

It may sound a ragbag collection and that’s because it is, but those are the items uppermost in the mind of POTUS so as night follows day they are all being lined up for punitive tariffs. No point in debating whether those tariffs will work and will save the bathroom cabinet industry of South Carolina as President Trump claims. What is 100% certain is that President Trump does not comprehend that imposing 100% tariffs on films made outside the USA will not succeed. The kindest response from the film industry to date is that those tariffs are unenforceable. For those of you not involved in the film industry – as SGM-FX has been for over 20 years – films are made in multiple locations, and 21st century audiences expect all in one film as a minimum car chases in the South of France, bad guys in Bangkok and business deals in NYC. A potpourri of FX requirements, cross border shareholdings and a multiplex of international co-operations… including but not limited to the USA.

EUR/USD 1.1745.

EU Environment Agency

A surprise from the EEA in their environmental report which is published every 5 years. Unfortunately, not a good one: in 2020 40% of the EU’s lakes, rivers, and coastal sites were in a bad ecological state. That has risen to 62% in 2025. It is not only pollution but pesticides that are to blame as well as the rising incidences of drought conditions. Given the amount of airtime given to all things green and especially so in the EU, this report should make waves in Euroland and far beyond.

EUR/JPY 173.57.

Artemis ll

As soon as February 2026 i.e. in just 4 months time, NASA is planning to send a manned space craft to orbit the Moon. This is the first time for 50 years that a crewed mission will journey so far. And the 4 person crew will include a Black astronaut and also a Woman. The aim of the crew apart from testing systems is to take the preparatory steps towards establishing a human presence on the moon which in turn will act as the staging post and launch for missions to Mars. It is also a powerful political reminder that POTUS’ USA has NASA, and NASA has not (yet) been bought by either Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. 

EUR/GBP 0.8725.

She

This day in 2018 French crooner Charles Aznavour departed this world while in his bathtub at the ripe old age of 94. CA wrote 1000 songs, recorded more than 1200 songs and sold more than 180 million records as well as earning himself the soubriquet of being France’s answer to Frank Sinatra.

She may be the face I can’t forget
A trace of pleasure or regret
May be my treasure, or the price I have to pay
She may be the song that summer sings
May be the chill that autumn brings
May be a hundred different things
Within the measure of a day

She may be the beauty or the beast
May be the famine or the feast
May turn each day into a heaven or a hell
She may be the mirror of my dream
A smile reflected in a stream
She may not be what she may seem
Inside her shell

She who always seems so happy in a crowd
Whose eyes can be so private and so proud
No one’s allowed to see them when they cry

She may be the love that cannot hope to last
May come to me from shadows of the past
That I remember ’til the day I die
She may be the reason I survive
The why and wherefore I’m alive
The one I’ll care for through the rough and rainy years

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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