SGM-FX insights

USD Surge   The publication of the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes provided a boost to the US Dollar last week. Whilst risk sentiment had remained fragile and US macroeconomic data had continued to be strong, the greenback had remained on the front foot for much of the preceding week. The market was looking out for […]

Or Not.   As we wrote about last week, the decision to close the economy of New Zealand due to a suspected case of coronavirus within the community took a heavy toll on NZD. Against the US Dollar, the Kiwi did not find support at its recent lows reached earlier this month and set new […]

Too Much, But Not Enough   Ahead of an inflation data release yesterday afternoon, the trade-weighted Dollar index stood at year-to-date highs. Positive US headlines and developments within the US Federal Reserve over the past two weeks had helped USD secure further gains on its major crosses. The inflation data released yesterday afternoon was expected […]

Data vs Data   Markets had placed their bets on a low volatility summer period and so far at least, across the broader market this has largely been delivered. Key FX pairs have stayed within recent ranges and channels with volatility still realising below or in line with the record low implied volatility that markets […]

Claridy   Yesterday afternoon saw EURUSD kick into life. Initially, with US Treasuries still continuing to be bought in droves, demand for the US Dollar was weak. The market had a key technical level of 1.19 in its sights and rode towards it throughout the morning session. A weak private employment report (US ADP data) […]

Scale   The Federal Reserve has been in its blackout period ahead of its latest monetary policy decision this week. No doubt many Fed Presidents are itching to head towards the microphone once Powell’s Reserve publishes its latest policy decision. The bond market has been flashing warning signals as we have covered with fair value […]

Loonie?   Amidst signs of rising inflationary pressures and a strong recovery in underlying economic activity, Canada joined the early recovery club early on. With strong fundamentals of its own and the expectations of a spillover from its outperforming neighbour, the United States, the Bank/Banque signalled its intent to normalise policy ahead of many of […]

Hot Air   A change of tide has begun in the foreign exchange market. However, it is not one that will float all ships. Finally, an acknowledgement of rising inflation expectations in the United States and globally has coerced the Federal Reserve to begin the path towards a discussion about tapering rates it seems. Their […]

Norway   Norway’s Norges Bank is setting the pace for the world’s Central Banks by announcing yesterday that they plan to raise rates 4 times in the next year. Currently the key rate for Norway is at 0.00% but the indication is for 4 rate increases of 0.25% each quarter over the next 12 months […]

US Labour Market Bottleneck   Why was the US jobs market weaker in April than expected and likely to remain so? With 7.5 million more people out of work than a year ago, the US is looking for answers as to why people are not getting back to work. The answers are likely to be: […]

Sell-off, Sell-on   Yesterday markets were perhaps as non-directional as they have been in a long time. Usually, the set of expectations moving into an important event or data release is well defined and it’s possible to place your finger on exactly how the market should react to certain tangible outcomes from such events. The […]

Cheese   Before I get to the astronomical rally in cheese futures that I know you have been eagerly awaiting, let’s take a look at what the Federal Reserve said last night in one of its most defining monetary policy meetings in a decade. As we discussed recently, the market knows that global central banks […]