SGM-FX insights

CBDCs Coming to your High Street soon: Central Bank Digital Currencies. The largest due to launch next year is the digital Euro. The Bank of England is still looking into it. Given that we have bank transfers, electronic banking, credit and debit cards and multiple payment cards the question is what will be the plus […]

Pushing back The Federal Reserve delivered its latest monetary policy decision yesterday evening. As was widely expected, the Fed kept rates on hold in their current band of 4.25-4.5%. This does not mean that there were not any fireworks during the publication and subsequent press conference. There were two dissenting votes to the decision to […]

Oil At a smidge below USD70, Brent oil rose sharply at the beginning of the week on the back of two principal factors: firstly, the EU committing to buy USD 750 billion of energy products from the USA as part of the 15% tariff trade deal; secondly, POTUS’ 50 day ultimatum to President Putin to […]

A deal on trade? On Sunday, a deal was agreed between the EU and US on trade. This has been presented as both sides seeking to avoid the uncertainty of the tariff deadline approaching this Friday. However, a deal in the context of the EU is never quite so simple. An audience with Ursula von […]

Greek Water Greek PM Mitsotakis is taking action on Greece’s problem of widespread water shortages brought on by climate change and increasing demand for what is an increasingly scarce water supply exacerbated by drought. A 5 pronged nationwide plan to tackle the crisis which has evidenced itself with forest fires and arid landscapes is being […]

EU Interest Rates As expected the ECB held interest rates yesterday. Unsurprising, given the August 1 deadline on the US tariffs that might see a punitive tariff rate of 30% on the EU, although talks are meant to be getting closer to a 15% rate and in sight of the finishing tape. That means that […]

Deals, deals and nearly deals Risk assets have received a boost as trade deals cross or approach the finish line ahead of next week’s August 1st deadline. First in yesterday’s session was the announcement of a deal between Japan and the US. This deal had proved elusive for a while and news of its completion […]

UK Government Borrowing At GBP 2.7 trillion or 2,700 billion, the UK is one of the most indebted nations, but to put that in perspective the UK Government borrowing is equivalent to 96% or almost 1 year of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. Broadly between 1975 and 2008, the percentage was between 40 and 50%. […]

Change of plan The ECB’s decision to adjust policy in June hadn’t been a consensus view within the market. The probability of a rate cut increased into the decision, but many had expected the Bank to keep rates on hold, pausing to take stock of policy adjustment to date. The decision last month to make […]

US Dollar As markets mostly do after a near straight line decline of 14% up until the end of June USD has clawed back 2% since July 1. For the next couple of months it would look as if USD will consolidate further. What could spoil that? 1. Unexpected US protectionism in the shape of […]

EU Budget There’s nothing like a EUR 2 Trillion Budget to test the bonds of brotherhood binding the EU bloc to squeaking point. Yesterday, President Ursula von Der Leyen launched her increased and eye watering strategic budget which has already met what is politely termed a mixed reception by the EU Parliament as the key […]

There goes those foundations Markets whipsawed yesterday as the press published regarding POTUS’ intentions for the Fed Chair. CBS news kicked things off reporting Trump had asked a room of Republican lawmakers on Tuesday whether he should fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell. That report suggested Trump had indicated on Tuesday night […]