SGM-FX insights

UK Growth Normally when UK Government figures come in exactly in line with forecasts it is a matter for self congratulation among economists and last week’s July Growth figures were no exception: the expectation was for Zero growth and indeed growth for the UK economy in July was Zero. There is a snag here: apart […]

France Beyond its political woes, which were somewhat mitigated by the appointment of President Macron’s latest PM on Wednesday, France is looking down the barrel of a likely credit downgrade that will see it losing its AA status. This will further constrain growth as well as increase its cost of borrowing. Just to round things […]

48 Hours There has been a noticeable shift in geopolitical risk this week. So how, baring a mild slip lower in EURCHF, have FX markets remained quite so flat? Sure, there have been some contained intraday spikes in some commodity prices but ultimately those legs higher have been thwarted, often in the very same trading […]

O Canada With much of the world’s North American focus on the USA rather than Canada, it is worth taking a look at what has been happening in the past few months in Canada. Government initiatives have been directed towards mitigating the effects of the US tariffs including new strategic response funds and extra loan […]

Next! The outcome of the Parliamentary debate in France yesterday leaves the nation in political limbo as its Prime Minister François Bayrou is ousted. The vote yesterday was on the motion that the French Parliament held no confidence in the government’s 2026 budget. As expected, they don’t. Many prominent voices in the market suggested that […]

Independent Central Banks To continue the recent debate about how worried we should be (very) about the loss of independence of the USA’s Federal Reserve, the respected ex Deutsche Bank and HSBC Financial Times columnist Stuart Kirk, posited at the weekend that the answer should be, not very worried at all. SK arrived at this […]

US Rate Cuts The markets are understandably fixated on the US jobs report which comes out this afternoon given the Federal Reserve’s laser like focus on employment. On Wednesday data reflected that July Job Vacancies fell to a 10 month low. There is now a 100% chance priced in for a September US rate cut and […]

Tariffs: more than a risk to trade This week has emphasised just how quickly deteriorating confidence in the sustainability of public finances can unwind support for a currency. This of course has been evident in GBP as we have covered. Despite a small recovery yesterday, helped by weak US data, the local currency continues to […]

British Pound That Indian Summer predicted for GBP took a knock yesterday, with UK PM Sir Keir reshuffling some of his top team and the markets scoring it, as a blow for Chancellor Reeves since the PM seems to be recruiting a rival economic team to try and regain control of the UK economy and the […]

Food and flights It will be a couple of weeks until UK data for September kicks off in earnest. This week will really only see a delayed publication of July’s retail sales data which, although salient, is unlikely to tip the needle on price. The same is true of next week with growth data to […]

US Consumer Spending Inflation may be a concern, consumer sentiment may be low, the US labour market may be slowing but in the past four months the US consumer has been out and proud: spending. While consumer spending fell on an inflation adjusted basis for H1 2025, taking the period from may to end August […]

Independent Central Banks The concept that has served the USA and the wider world so well for more than 8 decades is being tested in respect of the Federal Reserve by POTUS and the financial world is largely so far, complacent. Distinguished economist Paul Krugman wrote an excellent piece yesterday and his conclusion, other than […]