Daily Brief – In the Barrel

In the Barrel

Yesterday marked my 52nd anniversary in the City which is worth reporting here for the changes that have taken place in both the physical landscape of the City and the technology supporting the markets. There were still overt signs of WW2 bomb damage in the many areas of wasteland used invariably as car parks, bowler hats and furled umbrellas were sported and the streets of the City were empty by 6pm. There were no news feeds and information was gleaned from newspapers and passed by word of mouth on the phone or telex during the trading day. In the FX trading room where I worked, we had a TV in the corner that displayed just 4 prices which were GBP/USD, Gold, FTSE and the Long Gilt. Lunchtimes meant an Early Lunch (1130-1230) or a Proper Lunch 1230+ or being in The Barrel. Being very junior (Pondlife) I was invariably in The Barrel.

*as at 1-10-1974
GBP/USD 2.33 * or 1.3216.

Uber

In an example of the unforeseen consequences of evolving technology, when I remonstrated with an Uber driver for taking the central London 20mph speed limit to extremes, he replied that he was worried as Uber had installed an algorithm in the App that measured drivers’ speeds and that Uber had in certain instances withdrawn drivers’ licenses for averaging more than 20mph. We proceeded in my case with gritted teeth in mutual silence at a measured 15mph.

EUR/GBP 0.8544.

Barclays v Goldman Sachs

In future business school case studies, one can all too easily imagine puzzled students asking their lecturers how on earth major institutions including HM Government, International Banks from Goldman Sachs to Barclays and Major Corporations managed to tie themselves in knots over WFH or Working From Home. Many institutions including some of the above have not succeeded in extricating themselves from negotiations with their workforce resulting in their Human Capital asset deigning to show up only infrequently at work This is an excerpt from a staff memo to Barclays staff from its Executive Committee this week:
“We are extending the implementation period for UK colleagues to ensure colleagues have the right support as we move through the transition … We are also reviewing our flexible working policy.”
Contrast Barclays’ weak message with that of Goldman Sachs’ CEO in February 2021 on the subject of WFH:“It’s an aberration that we’re going to correct as soon as possible.” Then reinforcing that in 2023 when GS Management began tracking badge-swipe data to enforce attendance.
So there’s the difference.

EUR/USD 1.1290.

AI and the US Labour Market

Starting with the headline number, the USA has a workforce of 170 million and within that, there are 7 million unemployed. AI according to McKinsey will affect the jobs of 36 million workers by 2035 but 25 million will retain their roles due to increases in productivity. That leaves a colossal 11 million who will need to find new jobs in different sectors ie completely different occupations. That will require mobility on a vast scale on a par with that of the Great Depression.

Brent Oil USD 100.44.

Tonight’s The Night ( Gonna Be Alright)

Exactly 50 years ago today Rod Stewart’s single of this name crashed onto the Billboard 100 at #81 selling 1 million copies in the USA alone. Banned on UK radio for its suggestive lyrics and his then squeeze Britt Ecklund’s sultry whispering in French(!) on the soundtrack -which of course immediately ensured its smash hit commercial success: the song rocketed to Number 1.

Stay away from my window
Stay away from my back door too
Disconnect the telephone line
Relax, baby, and draw that blind
Take off your shoes and sit right down
Loosen up that pretty French gown
Let me pour ya a good, long drink
Ooh, baby, don’t you hesitate, ’cause
Tonight’s the night
It’s gonna be alright
‘Cause I love you
Ain’t nobody gonna stop us now
C’mon, angel, my heart’s on fire
Don’t deny your man’s desire
You’d be a fool to stop this tide
Spread your wings and let me come inside, ’cause
Tonight’s the night
It’s gonna be alright
‘Cause I love you
Ain’t nobody gonna stop us now
Don’t say a word, my virgin child
Just let your inhibitions run wild
The secret is about to unfold
Upstairs before the night’s too old cold

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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