Daily Brief – UK Retail Sales

UK Retail Sales

Up 0.5% in August versus the median market forecast of a drop of 0.2%, fears that all that glorious weather would, as it normally does, mean that Britain’s shoppers stay at home were proven incorrect. In fact Retail Sales were up 2.4% from August 2025. Not enough to get pulses racing but enough to suggest that the UK economy is doing better than it was feared and that the Bank of England are even more likely to raise interest rates in November. The Pound duly improved marginally.

GBP/USD 1.3376.

Currency Hedging

In a survey of 285 major decision makers at US and UK companies, consultancy MillTech found that an uncharacteristically low proportion of between 25 and 50% have hedged their FX exposures. Why? The answer somewhat improbably is due to the high level of uncertainty about where USD and consequently other currencies are going. Two things about that: firstly and traditionally in times of uncertainty, companies hedge; secondly, if there is a breakout or an increase in volatility, there will be a corresponding and higher level of activity exacerbating any swings as those 285 corporate titans head for the exits.

EUR/USD 1.1469.

Top World Airlines

The Top 20 features just 6 European Airlines-Turkish, Air France, Lufthansa, Iberia, Virgin and Swiss. Some might argue with some of those and wonder if the right weighting has been ascribed to that of enjoyability(no). However fewer will dissent with the world’s best airlines: Singapore, Qatar, Cathay and ANA which fill the top four spots. Flying in Asia or on Asian airlines is a pleasure that few Europeans experience but if they did they would most definitely query the inclusion of those top European airlines featured in the 2026 World Airline Awards. Separately and positively for not just air travelers but the whole world, Iran says that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial shipping.

Brent Oil USD 104.30.

Software Freedom Day

With no sense of irony in these days of AI debate, we can report that yesterday was the day that we should all have celebrated FOSS or Free and Open-Source Software. If that doesn’t get your pulse racing, then maybe that is because you were celebrating the other observance: International Talk Like a Pirate Day when people hailed each other with Ahoy Matey or Roger, the cabin boy. Hmmmm.

EUR/GBP 0.8574.

ABBA Gold

This day in 1992 PolyGram Records released this album collection of the Swedish pop quartet’s best songs which sold an incredible 30 million copies and became one of the bestselling albums of all time. This song says it all: banal but compelling lyrics and lots of them:

I don’t wanna talk
About things we’ve gone through
Though it’s hurting me
Now it’s history

I’ve played all my cards
And that’s what you’ve done too
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play

The winner takes it all
The loser standing small
Beside the victory
That’s her destiny

I was in your arms
Thinking I belonged there
I figured it made sense
Building me a fence

Building me a home
Thinking I’d be strong there
But I was a fool
Playing by the rules

The gods may throw a dice
Their minds as cold as ice
And someone way down here
Loses someone dear

The winner takes it all (takes it all)
The loser has to fall (has to fall)
It’s simple, and it’s plain (yes, it’s plain)
Why should I complain? (Why complain?)

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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