Daily Brief – Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets

As we have written before this newish market sector is big- USD51 billion wagered in prediction bets in the USA last year and growing: this year it is forecast to grow to USD240 billion. Previously banned in the UK, the FCA is rumoured to be contemplating lifting that ban. Who knows, UK punters may soon be permitted to bet on how long the new PM Andy Burnham lasts before he is inevitably replaced. 

GBP/USD1.3519

Cybercabs

Stand by for a Tesla reveal and this time it was for their autonomous driven cybercabs which this past week have been licensed in Texas. Well, 45 of them have. Ok it’s a small acorn but Elon Musk who unusually did not show up at the launch, reckons that his cybercabs will be a game changer. Since there is no need for pedals nor a steering wheel, it is unclear what the human operators who will be present during the initial phase will do in the event of an emergency. Maybe they will join in with the passengers in watching entertainment on the 22-inch monitor that each vehicle will have.

EUR/GBP0.8587

US Employment

The US employment release on Friday was more than double the predicted increase of 65,000 with 162,000 in new jobs. That sent short end bond yields higher as markets predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. The Federal Reserve has the mandate to keep US inflation at or below 2% and maintain full employment. The first of those looks like Work In Progress given that the latest inflation measure i.e.  July US CPE stood at 3.7%.

EUR/USD 1.1614

Dog fruit

That is what avocados were termed in India just 15 years ago when the fruit was allowed to fall off the trees to rot or to be eaten by wild dogs. That all changed when Bollywood star Shilpa Shetty recommended avocados for skincare adding that she used the fruit herself on her skin. Things have moved on since then and Indians are now eating the fruit, and it has become a fashionable menu item.

Brent Oil USD 96.28

Communication Breakdown

This day in 1968 a line-up billed as the New Yardbirds performed to 1200 teenagers in Gladsaxe, a suburb of Copenhagen to generally positive reviews but which resulted in the original Yardbirds issuing a writ and Jimmy Page, Robert Plant, John Bonham and John Paul Jones being forced to change their name to Led Zeppelin. A local paper reported: “Their performance and their music were absolutely flawless, and the music continued to ring nicely in the ears for some time after the curtains were drawn after their show…”

Hey, girl, stop what you’re doin’
Hey, girl, you’ll drive me to ruin
I don’t know what it is I like about you, but I like it a lot
Won’t you let me hold you, now, let me feel your lovin’ touch

Communication breakdown, it’s always the same
Havin’ a nervous breakdown, a-drive me insane

Hey, girl, I got somethin’ I think you oughta know
Hey, babe, I wanna tell ya that I love you so
I wanna hold you in my arms, yeah
I’m never gonna let you go, ’cause I like your charm

Communication breakdown, it’s always the same
Havin’ a nervous breakdown, drive me insane, ow, suck

Communication breakdown, it’s always the same
Havin’ a nervous breakdown, a-drive me insane, yeah

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter