How do we really feel about tariffs?
As we wrote yesterday, financial news outlets erupted as if it were Christmas come early upon the initial suggestions that the Supreme Court would likely find Trump’s tariffs contrary to law. Upon the realisation later on during the US session that this expectation had become reality, headlines doubled down on the illegality of Trump’s tariff agenda. Whilst the press had no apparent concern of risking an over reaction, the markets behaved somewhat differently.
Coupled with an initial modest gain in US equities, the US Dollar did decline sharply at first. However, such losses were short lived with EURUSD barely able to scrape into the 1.18s and, even then, only for a fleeting few moments. When the Supreme Court first picked up the gantlet of tariff by executive order, SGM-FX noted that in the event of a ruling against the use of tariffs, it would most likely be Trump’s reaction to such a decision that mattered the most. Already, we know that the President is seeking alternatives to replace what he sees as the necessary instruments to enact his trade and foreign policy that the Supreme Court has denied him.
So, at the end of the day, there’s limited change to the backdrop of tariffs. There shall be no such windfall to economic growth and inflation prospects from the removal of this legislative inefficiency. However, is the President done? POTUS may well see the removal of this terms-of-trade weapon as a threat to his America-first narrative. In which case, may the next-best weapon waiting in the wings have media outlets halting the front page once again? And, in any case, will the markets maintain their calm nonetheless?
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
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