Back in the 1990’s the Japanese Yen’s strength based on Japan’s trade position with the USA and the flows of capital inwards to the USA to fund its ballooning deficit, marked the likely direction for the US Dollar versus the other major traded currencies: the GBP, German Deutschmark and Swiss Franc. Until 2005 the Chinese Reminbi was fixed against the US Dollar and after 2015 the People’s Bank of China-PBoC- the Chinese Central Bank allowed the Chinese Reminbi to float more freely versus USD. With China’s economy so much larger today in global terms plus the swift bounce back from Covid in China in 2020, recent strengthening in the Reminbi is signaling that firstly the Chinese Reminbi has assumed the previous role of the Japanese Yen as bellwether for other major trading currencies against USD, and secondly that the Reminbi is indicating further future USD weakness versus EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY.
Car part manufacturers seeing a slump in demand for their normal output have turned to manufacture ventilators and other Covid related PPE items that are in short supply in RSA. This has the twin benefit of addressing those shortfalls in equipment and also keeping their workers in jobs. Reef Engineering the Johannesburg company and Rand York Castings the Durban company are just two examples of this shift in output. At ZAR 16.49 at the end of last week, the Rand is not out of the woods but has benefitted from a weaker USD having been as low as 19 back in May.
Hands up all those who thought ON-J was Australian! In fact she was born in Cambridge, UK and her parents emigrated to Melbourne when she was 6. Before the smash hit that was Grease, she had already carved out a successful career and this number from 1974 was at the top of the charts for weeks at that time:
I honestly Love You ( for the sake of clarity, that’s the name of the song!)
Maybe I hang around here
A little more than I should
We both know I got somewhere else to go
But I got something to tell you
That I never thought I would
But I believe you really ought to know
I love you
I honestly love you
You don’t have to answer
I see it in your eyes
Maybe it was better left unsaid
This is pure and simple
And you should realize
That it’s coming from my heart and not my head
I love you
I honestly love you
I’m not trying to make you feel uncomfortable
I’m not trying to make you anything at all
But this feeling doesn’t come along everyday
And you shouldn’t blow the chance
When…
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Oil Price
Humphrey Percy
Fri 2 May 2025
Oil Price Pre TT or Trump Tariffs, the oil price seesawed around but mostly reverted to its mean over a few trading sessions unless a major piece of economic, political or trade news arose. All that has gone out of the window with steady declines in session after session, so in case you have been […]
Daily Brief – Asia on Fire
Humphrey Percy
Wed 7 May 2025
Asia on Fire The TWD or Taiwan Dollar has scarcely featured in most FX traders’ consciousness until the past four weeks, when the NTD has roared up over 10%. The Korean Won has managed a respectable 6%, the Thai Baht and the Malaysian Ringgit 5% and the Singapore Dollar 4%. So what’s behind it? The […]
Daily Brief – British Pound
Humphrey Percy
Wed 30 Apr 2025
British Pound Whenever one reads a headline such as Sterling at a 38 month high versus USD, the tendency is to assume that GBP is due for a hubristic fall after that particular piece of pride. However this time it might just be different with no sign that USD has turned a corner and is […]
