US fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.9% compared with expectations of an upward revision to 2.1% as a higher estimate for consumer spending was offset by a downward revision to government spending and investment.
The Chicago PMI index was notably stronger than expected with an increase to 57.4 for February from 50.3 with robust gains in employment and prices on the month. The latest consumer confidence reading was also stronger than expected with an increase to 15-year highs of 114.8 from 111.6 in January which underpinned confidence in the spending outlook.
The dollar was still unable to gain any support as the Euro broke above 1.0600 with choppy trading into the London fix. San Francisco Fed President Williams stated that a March rate increase was up for serious consideration given full employment and accelerating inflation which provided fresh dollar support. New York Fed President Dudley stated soon after, that the case for interest rate increase is now more compelling and that there had been a very large rise in household confidence together with very buoyant financial markets.
Dudley’s comments had a more substantial impact in boosting the US currency as futures markets indicated that the chances of a March rate increase were now well above 50%. The Euro retreated to test support near 1.0550 as the dollar gained strong support against all majors.
Quarter End For those markets, including the UK, which will be observing Good Friday, today will be the last trading session of both March and Q1 2024. This means that we should expect today to mark the final day of any major FX position adjustment. The end of a month, quarter or year brings with […]
EU Border Controls 26,000 respondents in 18 jurisdictions have spoken and 51% of them are dissatisfied with border controls and the level of immigration into the EU. Now that is a statistic that political parties across the EU should sit up and take notice of in the next two months in the lead up to […]
A 1.08 floor? As we wrote yesterday, a surprise interest rate cut in Switzerland from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has jolted markets into life. Over the last month, the probability of interest rate cuts at major central banks has been falling consistently. This surprise cut from the SNB last week has awoken investors to […]