Tag Archives: when to sell pounds

SGM-FX London skyline

Data Sharing: India

Data Sharing: India

 

The Indian government plan to regulate non personal data which will cramp the plans of Facebook, Amazon and Google in particular as they all view India’s 1.4 Billion population as a very enticing and juicy market. In short this will tighten up the rules on data transfer and US big data is loudly objecting to New Delhi’s plans. The INR traded at a record low of 76.97 on 21-4-20 but since then has improved but the implicit threat from US companies like these is that they will withdraw foreign direct investment into India. Right! The size of the market speaks for itself and while it will make things harder for those companies, the economic attractions of such a huge market will win through.

 

Emily Dickinson, Poet 1830-1886 nailed the point (presciently) although admittedly not with reference to India(!) when big data had not even been thought about:

 

I’m Nobody! Who are you?
Are you – Nobody – too?
Then there’s a pair of us!
Don’t tell! they’d advertise – you know!

 

 

Turkey: Bank Insurance Transaction Tax ( BSMW)

 

Up until May the then 0.2% tax was an inconvenience to most Turkish citizens but as dollarisation has gathered pace, the government increased the tax to 1%. Now a decree has exempted non resident financial institutions from the tax with immediate effect. The hope in Ankara has to be that this will alleviate the concentrated selling of the TRL by those same institutions. By the end of last week the rate had steadied at 7.29 v usd after a precipitous week’s drop.

 

 

Sultan’s of Swing

 

42 years ago in 1978 clubs and pubs pounded to the beat of Dire Straits and their newly released hit, Sultan’s of Swing as Europe’s glittering youth threw themselves around on dance floors. That summer, temporarily released from my duties on the FX desk after several ferries from Piraeus, I managed to reach Paradise Beach on the Greek island of Paros. In those days there was only one taverna, one London FX trader and a few German hippies until the sun went down and the open air disco powered up which attracted a few more fellow lotus eaters from the nearby villages. Here’s a sample from Sultans of Swing:

 

Check out Guitar George, he knows all the chords.
But it’s strictly rhythm; he doesn’t want to make it cry or sing.
If any old guitar is all he can afford,
When he gets up under the lights to play his thing.
And Harry doesn’t mind if he doesn’t make the scene.
He’s got a daytime job, he’s doing alright.
He can play the honky tonk like anything,
Savin’ it up for Friday night.
With the Sultans,
With the Sultans of Swing

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Figures

Morning Brief – U.S. Labour market

U.S. Labour market

 

A further 262,649 job cuts in July were announced by U.S. employers yesterday reflecting more heat going out of the pre Covid U.S. employment market. This represents an increase of 54% over June’s figure and brings the total cuts year to date to 1.85 million. The record was set in 2001 when just under 2 million jobs were cut. The U.S. Labor Department publishes its closely watched and broader employment report later today. These employment statistics are more uncertain and less predictable than for many years-for example June surprised on the upside with 4.8 million new jobs whereas July is expected to see non-farm payrolls increase by 1.6 million. So a key release later today but within these confusing numbers one thing is sure: a large number of jobs have disappeared permanently. As for what replaces them in the post Covid world, it is too early to say.

 

 

Turkey and South Africa

 

 

TRL

 

The expensive defence of the Turkish Lira has seen the defensive psychological barrier of 7 versus USD breached this week. Yesterday was a very bad day for the Turkish authorities with the TRL depreciating 3.2% versus USD on concerns about how much is left in the tank since the start of the USD selling by Turkey-more than $65 Billion. This has been exacerbated by the outflow of capital from the Turkish market leading markets to expect that there will soon be a limit on the amount of USD buying permitted to Turkish citizens.

 

 

ZAR

 

Real value for USD and GBP buyers of South African Rand-ZAR with the exchange rate now at its most advantageous for 3 months and in the past 7 trading sessions having depreciated by nearly 7% due to fears of spreading Covid and also poor employment releases-Q1 unemployment at 30.1% of the workforce.

 

 

Christine Perfect

 

Better known as Christine McVie, Birmingham, UK born Christine started life as a sculptor having studied classical music and played the piano. In 1969 she married John McVie of Fleetwood Mac and in true romantic style spent their honeymoons separately with their respective bands, Fleetwood Mac and Chicken Shack. It was this day 50 years ago in 1970 that Christine McVie joined Fleetwood Mac and the rest is true rock and roll history with hits, break ups, divorces and much more right up until now which finds her back with Fleetwood Mac and worth more than USD 65 million. 77 divorced three times and currently single while showing no sign of losing her enthusiasm for music, Christine has collaborated both musically and more with many other music icons over the past 50 years including Christopher Cross and Dennis Wilson the Beach Boys drummer and the only surfer of the group(!). Here is one of my all-time favourite Fleetwood Mac songs written in 1976 and performed flawlessly so many times by Christine McVie:

 

Songbird

For you, there’ll be no more crying.

For you, the sun will be shining.
And I feel that when I’m with you,
It’s alright, I know it’s right.

To you, I’ll give the world.
To you, I’ll never be cold.
‘Cause I feel that when I’m with you,
It’s alright, I know it’s right.

And the songbirds are singing, like they know the score.
And I love you, I love you, I love you, like never before.

And I wish you all the love in the world.
But most of all, I wish it from myself.

And the songbirds keep singing, like they know the score
And I love you, I love you, I love you
Like never before, like never before, like never before.

 

Have a wonderful sunny and restful weekend!

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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SGM-FX handshake montage

Morning Brief – Soothsayer

Soothsayer

 

In the last few weeks there has been a prominent voice siding with more radical interpretations of the status and path that the global economy is on. Claiming the beginning of the Dollar’s debasement, it is the voice of Goldman Sachs that now brings the market a stark warning about government debt and tech valuations. The paradigm of a strengthening US Dollar, falling global bond yields and soaring tech valuations has been with us for at least a decade, many would argue closer to two. To publish attacks on all three of these phenomena within the space of a week signals to the market Goldman’s belief in a fundamental shift in the global political economy.

 

The call of a debasing US Dollar from the leading investment bank goes further than many market participants’ belief of a shift in sentiment against the greenback and a move away from risk. Debasement occurs when an asset or entity changes so significantly that it’s very fundamentals are incomparable over two time horizons. In Goldman’s opinion, economic fundamentals, political uncertainty and the pandemic response measures thus far create a significant disturbance to the drivers of the US currency so as to warrant a complete reclassification of its strength and even position in the world. There are relatively few market participants persuaded by the debasement story so far.

 

During the course of the pandemic central bank balance sheets have been raised by 20% to 120% of GDP in Japan, increased by half to 60% in the Eurozone, and expanded by $3tn in the United States. The vast amount of new liquidity in markets has driven yields lower as the central bank has soaked up any excess supply of government debt not purchased in the open market. Goldman warned yesterday in a note that the early discovery of a coronavirus vaccine could force a cyclical rotation from government debt into more risky assets. The bank suggested that the risk of discovering and approving a vaccine this year has not been priced into the market sufficiently. If this event did materialise the bank suggests it would be sufficient to question assumptions about eternally negative real rates.

 

Over in the United Kingdom this morning the Bank of England convened early to publish their latest monetary policy decision. They kept rates on hold and the pace and scale of the asset purchase program unchanged in line with market’s consensus expectation. The BoE did concede that the economy may not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021. The issue of negative nominal yields as part of the BoE’s toolkit was sidelined encouraging a positive momentum behind the Pound this morning.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Skyscraper view

Morning Brief – Turkey: Short and Caught?

Turkey: Short and Caught?

 

Being short of Turkish Lira will cost 1050% to borrow overnight in the offshore market as the local market has been drained following heavy state intervention executed through the state banks in the past week-probably more than $2.5 Billion taking the state $ sales to over $65 Billion. That Lira defence has meant that short sellers of the currency have to deliver and hence the squeeze. The fight to keep the TRL below the psychological level of 7 to USD has been a very costly exercise and cannot yet be judged a success.

 

 

Hugo Boss

 

A single swallow does not make a summer but encouraging that German fashion house Hugo Boss is expecting demand for suits and formal wear to return as soon as the current Covid lockdown ceases, after sales fell 59% in Q2. Their shares are down 47% this year but have remained steady with the announcement that quarterly revenues were at EUR 275 Million and the operating loss of EUR 124 Million was not as bad as expected. Hugo Ferdinand Boss was born in 1895 and founded his company in 1923. Hugo Boss had form at anticipating trends in formal wear as in the 1930’s he supplied uniforms to the SS, the SA, Hitler Youth and the Wehrmacht. After the war he was found to be an activist, supporter and beneficiary of National Socialism, but having successfully appealed, this was downgraded to being a follower despite him being an early adopter having joined the Nazi Party in 1931. The company was subsequently run by his son in law Eugen Holly as Hugo Boss was banned from both owning and also the management of any company; somewhat bizarrely, in 1948 Hugo Boss succumbed to an abscess of a tooth and died. Hugo Boss AG has in the past 75 years gone from strength to strength and as a leading global fashion brand has fully overcome that earlier period in its history.

 

 

Isle of Wight Festival: 1970

 

50 years ago in August 1970 the last in a series of 3 annual music festivals took place on the Isle of Wight. Better attended than Woodstock, 600,000-700,000 fans flocked to the Western side of the IoW. Hendrix, The Doors, Moody Blues, Who, Miles Davis, Joan Baez, Joni Mitchell, ELP, Free, Sly and the Family Stone and Ten Years After were included in the line-up. Financially it was a conspicuous failure as once the numbers became apparent, ticketing went out of the window and the organisers had no choice but to announce it was a free festival. Organisationally it was badly received with technical failures that drove the over refreshed crowd wild. Beer cans and much worse were hurled at performers, tents and concessions were set on fire and the 100,000 residents of IoW were so traumatised that it was not for a further 32 years in 2002 that a licence was granted to hold a music festival. The Moody Blues did manage to calm things a little with this 1967 classic which was number 10 out of 16 on their set list that memorable night on 30-08-70:

 

Nights in White Satin:

 

Nights in white satin
Never reaching the end
Letters I’ve written
Never meaning to send

Beauty I’ve always missed
With these eyes before
Just what the truth is
I can’t say any more

‘Cause I love you
Yes I love you
oh oh oh I love you

Gazing at people
Some hand in hand
Just what I’m going through
They can understand

Some try to tell me
Thoughts they cannot defend
Just what you want to be
You will be in the end

And I love you

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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team discussion

Morning Brief – Pitter Patter

Pitter Patter

 

On the more eclectic scale of renewable energy concepts was to harness the power of walking. By not having a completely fixed pathway, a pavement could rest upon dampers that could harness the kinetic energy of the pathway generated by people walking up and down the street. If you don’t think the energy generated by a few people walking down a street is anything considerable, cast your mind back to the design of the millennium bridge and how resonance almost brought an £18m bridge into the Thames below it. Judging by the increased footfall in London yesterday you’d be hard stretched to charge your phone on the energy generated by the capital’s commuters and tourists.

 

Plans announced last month to bring office workers back into the workplace as of August seem not to have been heeded by England’s capital. I have noticed my tube becoming increasingly crowded making my way into Bank station of a morning. But only by perhaps three or four people. Official observations yesterday saw a 2% increase week-on-week of the number of people on London’s streets. That leaves the pitter patter of Londoners’ steps 68% dimmer than the same time last year.

 

Many eat and drinkeries remain closed in the capital with fewer patrons and locations available for helping out by eating out. The typical jobs of the City of London have befitted working from home with financial services facing an easier task of working from a home office than many occupations. However, with some 2.9m people in the UK employed by the multi-billion Pound hospitality industry, a return to a connected civilisation will be important to maintaining a sustainable economic recovery.

 

Despite the encouragement back to towns and cities across the UK, a British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed 62% of companies expected some or all of their employees to be working remotely for the next year. Across the UK yesterday there was optimistic data coming from the eat out to help out scheme. Many restaurants, particularly in urban areas, reported increased footfall and receipts thanks to the introduction of the eat out to help out scheme. The short duration of the scheme remains a concern for the hospitality sector with the incentive scheme in place for the month of August only and to the tune of just £500m. GBP unphased by the social developments so far with a moderate consolidation versus the USD following a tremendous month of July.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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UK buildings

Morning Brief – Mexico

Mexico

 

Like other countries with huge diaspora working overseas such as the Philippines, the amount of remittances or funds from those workers that are sent home each month is keenly watched in Mexico City. Despite evidence that suggests that casual workers have seen their earnings crater in most countries during LockDown, for Mexico at least, remittances have actually increased in the past month to $3.4 Billion which is a year on year increase from the same period in 2019. SGM-FX remains active in the Mexican Peso and our very own Charles Porter keeps a close eye on the MXN which has fluctuated between 18.5 and 25.4 versus USD in the past year. The MXN market has always been a challenge for all participants-even professionals- and I well remember in 1995 at the time of the Mexican Financial Crisis, a whole trolley of tortillas being ordered and delivered to loud and ironic applause on the trading floor in a money centre bank in New York as it was wheeled across the floor to a senior trading manager in recognition of his conspicuous failure to read the market. Sadly but probably understandably he did not see the funny side, and having demanded the name of the miscreant, it was Adios Amigo!

 

 

Bitcoin

 

If a weekend of football, Grand Prix motor racing, cricket, horse racing and boxing has not provided enough excitement, a look at the price action in Bitcoin will certainly get pulses racing: having broken through then key $10,000 level last week, Bitcoin stood at $11,000 on Friday night and then around midnight on Saturday roared up to break $12,000 before crashing back to nearly $10,500 in the early hours of Sunday morning. Currently at $11,150, where it goes now is less certain, but for the optimists reading this, the next chart point is $13,800.

 

 

Jesse Owens 1913-1980

 

It was today in 1936 84 years ago at the Berlin Olympics that Jesse Owens won the 100 meters gold medal and additionally won gold for the 200 meters, 100 meters relay and the Long Jump. As history relates Owens also upset the then German Chancellor, Adolf Hitler and his own pet theory regarding sporting prowess being dependent on one race-the German race. However Jesse Owens as sports fans attuned to history will know, prior to that time, had already ensured his place in their affection and in the history books for what happened the year before on May 25 1935: at the Big Ten Track Event at Ann Arbor, Michigan, Jesse Owens broke three world records and tied a fourth in less than one hour. That feat has never been equaled and is known as the greatest 45 minutes in sport. Respect.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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St Mary Axe view

Morning Brief – China Politburo

 

China Politburo

 

China’s monetary policy will be more flexible and its fiscal policy more proactive in H2 2020. While a long way from embracing Western human rights values as we know, China is demonstrating that its economic approach is completely different today to how it was when the First 5 year Plan focussing on rapid industrial development was decided on in 1953; this gave way to the Second 5 year Plan in 1958 when the focus under the Great Leap Forward was on agricultural communes and smaller industrial enterprises. In other words when China used to set a course and a 5 year Plan, that was it-no deviation at all. Looking at the direction of 5 year USD versus CNY graph, the 12% CNY devaluation to where it stands today at 7.00 has certainly not been a straight line and reflects China’s efforts to establish the credentials of the CNY as a major global currency.

 

 

UK Residential Property

 

It is anecdotal, but the UK Chancellor lifting Stamp Duty Land Tax to kick in at GBP 500,000 is injecting life into the moribund UK residential property market- in London at least. SGM-FX Operations Officer Jisun has been up with the lark over the past few weekends to join long viewing queues for houses in North East London. Jisun and her husband have encountered that old chestnut of agents informing them that only offers at or above the asking price will be countenanced. However their persistence has finally paid off and they have managed to beat off other hopefuls and snag the house that they wanted at below the asking price.

 

 

1,540,556 Miles

 

British Airways mailed yesterday to advise me that in the past 28 years I have flown more than 6 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon with them. Right now long distance and regular air travel is looking to be a long way away from making a comeback, but just to motivate their customers, BA is offering double Avios.  In recent years I have also regularly patronised both Singapore Airlines and Virgin Atlantic to Asia and North America respectively so my total is well over 2 million miles but still close to home against the 34 million miles between Earth and Mars. The question was certainly on David Bowie’s mind in 1971 with this classic from Ziggy Stardust:

 

Life on Mars

 

It’s a God-awful small affair
To the girl with the mousy hair
But her mummy is yelling “No”
And her daddy has told her to go

But her friend is nowhere to be seen
Now she walks through her sunken dream
To the seat with the clearest view
And she’s hooked to the silver screen

But the film is a saddening bore
For she’s lived it ten times or more
She could spit in the eyes of fools
As they ask her to focus on

Sailors fighting in the dance hall
Oh man! Look at those cavemen go
It’s the freakiest show
Take a look at the lawman
Beating up the wrong guy
Oh man, wonder if he’ll ever know
He’s in the best selling show
Is there life on Mars?

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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SGM-FX buildings

Morning Brief – TRY again!

TRY again!

 

The Rand, Brazilian Real, the Ruble and the Indonesian Rupiah join the Turkish Lira to form a basket of emerging market currencies that are particularly vulnerable to capital flight – the so-called “fragile five”. During the height of the pandemic this basket of currencies recorded heavy losses versus their G10 counterparts. Losses had largely peaked by the end of March with the immediate speculative sell of in emerging market currencies moderated by global central bank action to support economic and monetary conditions. Since then rising infection rates across Latin America have put pressure upon the Real, historically low and volatile oil prices continued to undermine the Ruble and strict lockdown measures in Indonesia and South Africa have kept the Rupiah and Rand well discounted.

 

During the height of the episode of global market volatility spurred by the spread of the pandemic, losses within the Turkish Lira were noticeably contained. Thanks to measures introduced to limit the capacity for speculative selling and capital flight from the economy, the Lira was reluctant to sell-off at the pace of its vulnerable counterparts. However, four months on and the basket of emerging market currencies continues to firm up with one notable exception: Turkey. Despite a momentous sell-off in the USD to two-year lows over the last couple of weeks, the Lira fell to a 2.5 month low versus the Dollar. Against the European Single Currency things look even worse. EURTRY has now surpassed the levels reached during the Lira’s flash crash in 2018 and now sits at all time lows. The main cause behind the vulnerability that looks set to continue is monetary policy and economic mismanagement.

 

Turkish President and wannabe Economics Professor Recep Erdogan detests high interest rates. He sees them as a demand from an external group who demand high interest in order to reward/insure their speculative bets in the Lira. He also sees high rates of interest as the enemy of growth. As a result of this Turkey faces a structural balance of payments crisis leaving its currency vulnerable to speculative selling and an environment hostile to much needed overseas investment. Interest rates in Turkey stand at 8.25 percent. That sounds healthy, right? Well with inflation reaching 12.6 percent (annualised) last month, Turkey has a deeply negative real yield that renders it among the most unattractive currencies from a yield perspective on the planet.

 

Whilst sinking to record lows the market has shrugged off an estimated $1bn spent by Turkish authorities each day to sustain the Lira. Spending operations are not published in Turkey so the impact upon foreign exchange reserves remains an estimate. With lockdowns re-emerging across the globe and notably in Europe, FX intervention is a game that Turkey will find it rapidly cannot afford to play. In the past rapid sell offs in one of the fragile five currencies can have a contagion effect upon the other currencies. For now, and whilst the Lira’s decline seems quintessentially Turkish, the rest of the group are stable and still gobbling up (pardon the pun) accommodating monetary backdrops across the globe.

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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SGM-FX View of london

Morning Brief – Grace Hopper 1907-1992

Grace Hopper 1907-1992

 

GH had a sparkling career stemming from an insatiable curiosity for knowledge as a child; she went on to enjoy a first class education at Vassar College followed by a PhD in mathematics at Yale University. Having extended her mathematics knowledge into a career in what became computer science, Grace Hopper was responsible for developing what was initially called Flowmatic and which subsequently became the much better known COBOL or Common Business Orientated Language. Not content with teaching mathematics at Vassar and being a computer pioneer, GH joined the US navy reaching the rank of Rear Admiral before retiring and advising DEC. This week Grace Hopper is being honoured in a different way and this time by Google which has named their new transatlantic subsea superfast data line after her and which will stretch between NYC and both Bude, Cornwall and Bilbao, Spain and is due for completion in 2022.

NB Spookily today July 29 saw British PM Margaret Thatcher sign an agreement with France’s President Francois Mitterrand to build a tunnel underneath the Channel. Never mind that they could not agree whether it was the English Channel or La Manche: Eurotunnel was green lit.

 

 

Greggs

 

At last some better news from the beleaguered High Street fast food/ takeaway sector: when all we hear about are closures and layoffs, it is refreshing to see that while Greggs, purveyors of sandwiches to sausage rolls has made a loss of GBP 65.2M for the first 6 months of 2020 versus a corresponding profit of GBP 36.7M in 2019, sales of their products are now back running at 72% of the 2019 rate. Why? Simply this: Greggs caters for customers who cannot and do not work from home and now that building sites and construction projects are fully back, Greggs are back too with almost all of their 2025 outlets open. SGM-FX’s very own galloping gourmet, Richard Picton-Turberville having flirted briefly with a vegan sausage roll last week has now joined the other artisans in Eastcheap queuing up for bacon baguettes each packing a punch with reassuringly powerful boosts of 507 kcal and 2141 kJ. With all that energy, Rich should be unstoppable!

 

 

Aubrey Drake Graham aka Drake

 

The Canadian rapper has overtaken Madonna, the Beatles, Rihanna and actually everyone with the most Top 10 singles in the US Billboard chart. Aged 33 and followed closely by avid fan SGM-FX’s Conor who admiringly gasps that he is the “most famous rapper on the planet”. Drake is well known for romancing- at separate times- both Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez and he has not exactly been a slouch in the money making stakes either with a fortune estimated at USD 180 Million+.

Here’s a sample of how he made it with his franglais (Canadian obv) geographically challenged chart topping number, Greece which he recorded with DJ Khaled :

 

Come with me, leave all of your things, yeah
We can stop at Gucci, stop at Louis V, yeah
Come with me, fly you out to Greece
Full speed, survoler Paris, yeah
Come with me, leave all of your things, yeah
We can stop at Gucci, stop at Louis V, yeah
Come with me, fly you out to Greece
Full speed, survoler Paris

 

Speedboats, baby, in Nikki Beach
Waves in my ears, smokin’ weed (Oui, oui)
Whippin’ through the sand in a Jeep (Oui, oui)
All because of what I did on beats, baby
Life’s sweet, baby, iced out, baby
You just go get ready, we go out, baby
Long time lookin’ for the bounce, yeah
OZ had the bounce, yeah

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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SGM-FX London skyline

Morning Brief – How low can you go?

How low can you go?

 

With Euro-Dollar at two year highs, the rapid sell-off in the Dollar is in question. The trade weighted Dollar index is flashing oversold suggesting the broad-based USD sell off that has been underway since June could be running out of steam. A direct counter party to many fx trades and involved in some way in yet more, the path of the Dollar has a huge impact upon global markets. With an FOMC meeting staring down the Dollar tomorrow, let’s have a look at the main factors moving USD.

 

One factor driving the Dollar lower is a byproduct of the States’ response to the pandemic. The US balance sheet has swollen by around 70% thanks to the immense stimulus measures the Federal Reserve undertook at the start of the pandemic. The rapid injection of cash into markets has the effect of diluting the existing pool of currency with the effect of trimming the value of the wider currency. Opening swap lines overseas for Dollar liquidity too is known to devalue a currency on foreign exchange markets – why fund the purchase of Dollars with a currency trade when you can fund directly in USD? This would not have been an unwelcome side effect of the pandemic response. Whilst some of these policies are winding down there is no sign that the excess cash dumped on markets will be unwound any time soon. The persistently accommodating stance of the Fed should continue to weigh on the Dollar.

 

This huge injection of liquidity across the globe has pushed yields lower in many assets. The value of negative yielding debt is now greater than 15 trillion Dollars. What that means is that there are debt instruments out there approximately the size of the US economy itself that to buy (and therefore lend) will cost you. Within these instruments, if you lend money you will get back less than you initially lent. In an environment where real yields behind the Dollar are deeply negative, the currency loses some of its appeal to greener, less costly grass.

 

Over the last few decades the relative rate of inflation in the Eurozone and the United States has been a good indicator of EURUSD performance. When US inflation was considerably higher than in the Eurozone, the Dollar tended to outperform the Euro. With the obliteration of inflation in the United States and a surprisingly robust Eurozone economy, the inflation gap is now knocking on the door of 0 for the first time in a decade with inflation in Europe almost as high as it is in the United States. If the last two decades are anything to go by then EURUSD could have some catching up to do.

 

After seven consecutive days of losses versus the Euro, the Dollar is taking some breathing time around the 1.17 mark with the pair down from its overnight highs. The Dollar is fighting with its support levels from a trade weighted perspective and across G10 currency crosses. Expect choppy conditions as the Dollar decides which side of the line it wants to sit on. If the Dollar does break its support levels expect the sell off to gain new momentum and breakout into a new range. Any move by the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy further tomorrow will undoubtedly push the Dollar lower once again.

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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