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Morning Brief – End of the Week Round Up

End of the Week Round Up

 

It is positive if not fully refreshing to be able to comment that at $22.88 WTI Oil has steadied, stock markets put in a second decent session yesterday after an early wobble in Europe, gold is at $1628 and GBP has clawed its way back to its best level for the past week versus USD and EUR. Also as highlighted in earlier Briefings, the ZAR is at its lowest ie the most advantageous level against EUR, GBP and USD for the last 4 years.

 

SGM-FX HQ is fully staffed (albeit remotely) and we pride ourselves on continuing to deliver both the very best service to you our Clients. What we used before “Lockdown” to call “normal”, has been replaced by a new way of working with instant communication over both audio and video internet mediums and our hours of business are unchanged. So please do give us a call/ mail and we will be pleased to talk/reply responsively and rapidly.

 

 

Working From Home

 

There are some unforeseen consequences of WFH where the blame can be fairly laid on all those journalists who have been detailed by their Editors to write about keep fit exercises that one can do at home. Let’s just get it out of the way : it is very many years since many of our readers will have experienced carpet burn but following the daily home keep fit guides in the newspapers on how best to execute planks, mountain climbers and bear crawls in front of your wide screen, knees, knuckles and elbows throughout the land in all countries will have taken a beating on sitting room hearth rugs. Expect Bandaids and Savlon to be in short supply! So if you want to get ahead of the game you should think about buying the largest medical supplier in the world, Johnson and Johnson shares at $119 down from nearly $160 in January…..!

 

 

Statistic of the Week

 

While the team at SGM-FX have been closely monitoring markets and looking for value in the world’s currency pairs, forced to stay at home citizens of Canada have clearly had their minds on a different set of priorities:
With Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN on for 12-18 hours a day as usual, tracking global market movements in commodities, currencies, bonds, gold, equities and government bonds we at SGM-FX could of course expound further on all of that and more, but instead, we want to alert you to the key stat of the week : internet sales of sex toys has increased since the lock down in Canada by no less than 135%.
O Canada!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our land glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

 

 
Have a great and safe weekend!

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Lekke to be lekke

Lekke to be lekke

 

An Afrikaans ish phrase meaning it’s nice to be nice.. or so I’m told. In the times we find ourselves in, there seems to be value in examining exactly how nice is nice enough. Take the UK government’s call for citizens to volunteer to support the NHS. As Boris Johnson spoke to the nation yesterday we learned the government had expected 250,000 volunteers in a number of days. In less time than the government had expected, some 405,000 pledges to help had been received. That’s fantastic and I thank those that have been able to do so for their commitment. Unfortunately if we take things like this in isolation we approach our analysis of the population with rose-tinted spectacles.

 

As Rishi Sunak explained in his defence of the lack of financial coverage for self-employed workers there remains the concern that individuals and corporations will take advantage of the provisions that are being put in place to cushion the public through the Coronavirus pandemic. It’s unavoidable and a shame given that every pound borrowed by the government to fund these unprecedented spending plans will leave us with an enormous fiscal deficit that must be paid back. Look elsewhere: there was a huge spike in Companies House registrations for limited companies and individuals to be sole traders as covid-19 emerged as a pandemic. Whilst some of these certifications will have been granted to pursue philanthropic efforts, the vast majority of them are, I’m sure, to take advantage of people’s fear during this time. Testing kits for thousands of Pounds, toilet rolls for 1000% of their normal prices and hand sanitiser that looks set to rival saffron’s per unit cost are testimony to this belief!

 

The question of how nice is nice enough is set to become even more important for South Africa in the next 48 hours. We’ve been talking about Moody’s rating decision in South Africa for a long time. Since October when their last decision was to issue a negative outlook ahead of the Q1’20 budget speech, this Friday has been a focal point for the Rand. South Africa’s debt has been held at ‘junk’ status by two of the three major ratings agencies, Fitch and S&P. The classification by Moody’s, as all you Rand buyers and sellers will know, is Baa3- i.e. investment grade by the skin of its teeth. Given the worsening of South Africa’s credit outlook amidst the shutdown that comes this Friday it seems inevitable that a downgrade will take place.

 

Most economic commentaries out there authored domestically and internationally focus upon two themes. 1) Should and could Moody’s downgrade in good conscience given the state of the global political economic amidst Coronavirus; 2) does a downgrade even matter given everything else that’s going on? I find these two strains of thought defeatist in principle with the second more offensive than the first. Let’s address the first one: for every borrower of money, the debtor, there is a lender of money, the creditor. The very point of these ratings agencies is to create a level of consistency and transparency to lubricate the credit market. If an inevitable downgrade was to be held up it could therefore have the very effect of constraining the lending market, making the situation even worse: not only would South Africa’s borrowing costs rise further there wouldn’t be any money on offer to borrow. So, it wouldn’t be that lekke to be lekke in this scenario. To address the second point: Yes! It will still matter!

 

The yield on a 10-year South African note has spiked above 12%. That means that money in South Africa is the most expensive to borrow since 2002. At a time when the government is borrowing to fund the shutdown and the (privatised!) South African Reserve Bank is buying assets such lending rates are damaging to the real economy. Given that Eskom doesn’t generate enough revenue to cover its interest payments in times of ‘normal’ borrowing at rates circa 7%, it seems inevitable that it cannot finance its debt at these levels. The concern around Moody’s downgrade is that index linked bonds frequently have a condition that they must only buy ‘investment grade’ bonds meaning that if South African debt loses its last claim to non-junk status is must be immediately dumped into the market.

 

The magnitude of such debt is estimated, but not known with absolute certainty, to be USD 15bn. I fear that upon realisation of the junk status tomorrow it will not be a ‘buy the rumour sell the news’ non-event given the legal requirement to flog the debt. Yields should therefore climb higher from their already lofty heights. The Rand should spike lower simultaneously. Eventually, the inexpensiveness of the currency combined with the high rate of return for buying it should lead to a correction but, given the uncertainty in the global market at the moment, that correction could be a long time coming and fragile. Those with an exposure to Rand should set price objectives and have a trading strategy in place to take advantage of and also defend themselves from the volatility likely to come with tomorrow’s announcement. Our desk remains fully staffed and is extending our full range of services and we’d be happy to put such a strategy in place for you.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – For UK Business Readers

For UK Business Readers

 

Here is a useful summary of what the UK Government is offering UK businesses:

 

 

For those of you who submit self assessment returns, before you ignore the item above, do look at the final box above which does help.

 

Markets

 

Too early to heave a sigh of relief but certainly an opportunity to catch one’s breath; the USD having risen in an almost straight line for 11 days has now retraced a bit and there is talk of a return to currency intervention by the Federal Reserve. Gold at $1672 and most Stock Markets up by between 3 and 6% has given a more positive tone. The Dow had its largest rise for decades and finished up 11%. That positivity has extended into the Asian markets this morning. GBP steadier. USD weaker. EUR on its lows but again steady.

 

Rocket Man

 

Surprisingly this is not about POTUS and The description he gives to Kim Jong Il of North Korea. Today is Elton John’s 72nd birthday and funnily enough it was 1972 when he released one of his greatest songs, Rocket Man. For teenagers at that time Elton John was generating the most exciting music of anyone and when Goodbye Yellow Brick Road came out the following year, Elton John’s records were spinning on every self respecting pop enthusiast’s turntables. The rest is history!

Happy Birthday Elton!

 

Rocket Man

Rocket Man

 

She packed my bags last night pre-flight
Zero hour nine AM
And I’m gonna be high as a kite by then
I miss the earth so much I miss my wife
It’s lonely out in space
On such a timeless flight

 

And I think it’s gonna be a long long time
‘Till touch down brings me round again to find
I’m not the man they think I am at home
Oh no no no I’m a rocket man
Rocket man burning out his fuse up here alone

 

And I think it’s gonna be a long long time
‘Till touch down brings me round again to find
I’m not the man they think I am at home
Oh no no no I’m a rocket man
Rocket man burning out his fuse up here alone

 

Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids
In fact it’s cold as hell
And there’s no one there to raise them if you did
And all this science I don’t understand
It’s…

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – There goes the kitchen sink

There goes the kitchen sink

 

Markets have been talking about the ‘double punch’ that unsettled the benign and plain financial paradigm that we existed in for many years. The full-on right hook came from the Coronavirus that manifested as a simultaneous shock to supply and demand. The left hook came like some kind of bizarre scissor punch in the form of an oil price collapse. I can promise you that I’m not much of a boxer. But if I were to imagine what a boxer might do inside the ring when faced with such an onslaught I’m pretty sure it would be to respond with a similar act of aggression. Given that I hadn’t already been knocked out that is.

 

Yesterday the market had the opportunity to provide a US-led double punch response to the attack it was facing. The first punch was expected to come from the US government that was debating a fiscal response to the crisis, 25% of which was thought to be spent on Trump’s direct payment to US citizens. There were also provisions for sizeable loans to small businesses, additional liquidity assistance, and investment in healthcare. The second retaliatory punch would have been from the US Federal Reserve in yet another commitment to expanding market liquidity. In the end, the market received only the latter commitment from the Fed as momentum slowed on the $2tn package to support the US economy. The bailout package is still on the table and looks likely to pass but each day of inaction will unnerve the markets further.

 

Ultimately, the Fed’s action was insufficient alone to placate markets. Immediately after the Fed’s commitment there was a stabilisation of the risk fire-sale that had been taking place over the last few days. However, as markets weighed up the policy response to the developing health crisis stock markets continued to tumble to the benefit of safer havens. The Federal Reserve in a historic move opened two new facilities to the market allowing the Bank to purchase corporate bonds. Okay it sounds about as bland as the plain Ryvita consumers have been stockpiling but it isn’t:

 

Central banks are the institution in economies that can literally print money. They buy and sell government debt in quantitative easing and tightening cycles by literally inventing money. Their pockets are infinitely deep and the money they create never has to be paid back or made up. Even in the 2008 financial crisis developed markets central bank’s didn’t step into the corporate debt market – it wasn’t seen as a necessary step. However, the infinitely deep wallet is now being used to fund corporate spending directly.

 

A failing corporation can only stay alive so long as it can borrow in order to fund its commitments. When liquidity dries up in times of economic duress it won’t find people willing to take a risk on it and lend it money. In comes the Federal Reserve, directly funding the debt issuance to provide reasonably priced and guaranteed cash so that they might survive. Despite Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve it seems so far that the central bank is doing far more for US citizens than the White House or the US political system.

 

In the United Kingdom we have entered a lockdown as the public largely failed to heed the social distancing advice that the government had issued. Whilst Sterling reacted negatively to the news of lockdown around 8:30 last night, the Pound is bid this morning parring its losses in the overnight session. Markets have opened up constructively in many sectors as news of Wuhan reopening and Italy’s death toll curtailing reassures investors that this crisis will end.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – Situation summary

Situation summary

 

Oil at the lowest level since 2001, stock markets off 30%, gold lower at $1476 than it was on January 1, interest rates cut in 50 countries to help, the US Dollar has appreciated by 10%. The secondary effects are as follows: travel restrictions in place in 100 countries, airlines have been hardest hit with flights from the USA to Asia down 98%. Restaurant bookings have fallen by 90% from the same period in 2019.Car sales in China have also fallen by 90%. Global growth forecast is 2.2% versus 2.8% for 2019. It is the sheer speed and the size of the moves that have taken markets and consumers by surprise-but there again in this age of perfect communication especially when it comes to bad news, we should not be surprised. Markets and especially currency markets remain choppy at the beginning of the week.

Just to repeat the FX mantra with apologies for it beginning to sound like a self help lecture(!): set objectives, put protection in place and patience will be rewarded.

SGM-FX remains open and busy with and for you our clients; we are working a full day-every day!

 

 

Russian Constitution

 

In case it’s passed you by, President Putin’s amendment to the Russian Constitution will let him stand in 2024 and that means he could remain in power(legally) until 2036. There have been some protests over the weekend about this but these have been muted due to the illegality of any large gatherings as well as the protesters taking each others’ temperatures and finding it difficult to make much noise from behind their face masks.

The relevance of this in particular at present is the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia which has generated still more invective over the weekend with Russia blaming the Gulf nations and KSA especially. WTI at $22.63 now.

 

 

Glastonbury 2021

 

No not a typo: in case you missed it those who have paid the £50 deposit for this year have been told that they can put it against the 2021 festival. Taylor Swift, Sir Paul McCartney and Diana Ross were just a few of the top names who have been stood down. The 200,000 fans who are disappointed by the reluctant decision to cancel this year have been promised a line up in 2021 guaranteed to wow them. Meanwhile it is by no means certain that the other pop festivals scheduled for the summer months will be able to proceed.

Live streaming from Coldplay, Bruce Springsteen, Yungblood, Christine and the Queens plus some social distancing in your tepee in your back garden is the only realistic 2020 cool and safe vibe.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – GBP

GBP

 

Having fallen to USD 1.14 last night, GBP has bounced off that level and against all currencies including EUR it is stronger this morning. It has been a very long week and it is not over yet(!). Just to remind you, GBP started the week on Sunday night in the Far East at USD1.24.

 

 

Oil

 

With WTI now at $25.62 and the Saudis and the Russians engaged in their high stakes game of poker with oil supplies and prices, the world’s capacity to store oil is being severely tested given the slow down in demand due to the economic impact of Covid19. As land based storage facilities are filling up, traders are looking to water based storage ie using oil tankers as storage rather than transport. Last week Glencore rented 1 of only 2 ULCC or Ultra Large Crude Carriers which can take 3 million barrels. Tanker rates are soaring for super tankers: a 6 month contract is now $85K per day or $15.3 million, while a 3 month contract is $150K per day or $13.5 million. Ship owners are enjoying the ride while OPEC members are nervously hoping that Russia and Saudi Arabia patch things up soon…..

For those of you who are wondering about the price history, I have gone back to the end of WW2 and yes that was 1 of the 3 times that WTI has been at this price level. The others being 1973 and 1999. At the other end of the scale, the high in the past 75 years was in June 2008 when it was $165.

 

 

E scooter and Bike rentals

 

The two largest companies Lime and Bird started by suspending their services in 11 states in the USA and have now suspended their services in many European cities with the restrictions in place on people movement. With e scooters already an increasing feature of many cities, many are hoping that there is some clear legislation regarding their usage and in particular which part of the road they should stick to.

 

 

A story for our times….

 

The last time that I can recollect people in this country stocking up or less charitably hoarding supplies of staple goods was much earlier in my foreign exchange career when I was trading Swiss Francs (CHF). On 24-04-80 President Jimmy Carter gave the go-ahead to invade Iran for the purpose of rescuing the 44 American hostages that Ayatollah Khomeini had detained. Operation Eagle Claw was launched and included the USS Nimitz the high tech symbol of the USA’s fearsome nuclear power as well as 8 helicopters. As is well known the mission was a conspicuous failure as only 5 helicopters made it to the landing zone. Upon the advice of his generals, Carter then aborted the mission which prompted the Ayatollah to declare it an act of God or as he put it “Angels of God” which had intervened to protect Iran, him and his theocratic government from the Great Satan.

Meanwhile back on the trading desk, all hell was breaking out and suddenly the CHF was the most wanted currency in the world and I was in the hot seat. The spectacle of the mighty USA humbled in this way prompted a run on bottled water, baked beans, candles, torches and batteries. Epilogue: Some of my then colleagues who “went long” baked beans were feeding them to their luckless children for the next 2 or 3 years.

 

 

Popular Mechanics Magazine

 

Amazingly this publication still exists today with a website and also is popular……despite or maybe because of their 1949 prediction: Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. SGM-FX’s IT guru, Michael shook his head sadly as he headed off home with his ultra light PC weighing just 1.35 kg. “Just tragic” he muttered.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Down, down, down, down, down

Down, down, down, down, down

 

The chorus lyric of Flo Rida’s hit song echo the title of this market briefing. Two confessions: 1) yes I had to google the song to check 2) yes I spelled his name wrong. It might be erroneous to assume that just because the hit song was recorded in 2008 that Mr Rida was commendation on the global financial crisis and Great Recession he saw unfolding before him. But it seems more fun to do so than not, so I will.. After all, his co-star on the track (Ke$ha) even spells her name with a Dollar symbol! Coincidence?! Yeah probably.

 

Self-defamation and flippancy aside, the title of our budding musical FX analysts’ song was “right round”. My conviction to the belief of a sharp and deep recession followed by a period of rapid and unprecedented millennial growth mimicking a V-shape has only grown. I agree therefore with Flo Rida CFA and Ke$ha CPA, we should see valuations come right round.

 

Until the exogenous shock of Coronavirus the one world associated with GBP was Brexit. The most obvious feature of Brexit upon the Pound aside from a massive depreciation following the June 23rd referendum was a tight channel trade for more than three years. The range had a top (around 82.5 on a trade-weighted basis) that had been well tested and proven. It also had a firm bottom that had been reached and tested some three times in the course of post-referendum Britain at around 74 on a trade weighted basis. The average value was about 77.5 on the same scale. We have commented several times that this tight range is not sustainable and, eventually, volatility must come back into the underlying market and the Pound’s tight range broken. We also said that when the range is broken it won’t just crack, it will shatter and price action will be violent.

 

Following a rally at the end of 2019 following the result of the general election it looked as though the overdue range-break could have been to the upside. Unfortunately for Pound sellers and importers, the lack of a trade-deal and a stubborn PM in number 10 who was willing to leave without a deal capped Sterling’s gains in line but ultimately below the upper level. Given the above-average value of the Pound our expectation was for a correction at least towards the median and a move lower in Sterling. Well, we got it but the move was turbocharged by Coronavirus. As such we have broken the post-referendum price floor and Sterling is in free fall. See the graph below to see the Pound’s post-referendum performance and recent fall. Markets in normal times go up like an escalator. In bad times, they perform like a lift. Just in Sterling’s cash we’ve got a loose wire. Within the week, GBPEUR could well trade at 1-1.

 

On the desk we have been asked a lot why is Sterling taking the beating of international market’s angst at Coronavirus. Four reasons.

 

  1. Unpreparedness/Inaction

 

The UK government has been accused of inaction quite rightly. Despite a severe outbreak quarantine has not been enforced. Limitations on social interaction are value and not enforced. On top of that the amount spent and pledged by the UK government is pathetic in comparison with other developed European and US peers. Markets don’t like the UK government’s complacency and think it could deepen the Coronavirus crisis and ultimately the UK economy.

 

2. External deficit

 

Trust me, it isn’t just the Pound that’s taken a beating. All currencies whose underlying domestic economies have a large external deficit – i.e. they import considerably more than they export – are proving vulnerable to speculative flows. A weak current account balance can be likened to an over-leveraged debtor; in bad times their credit line is the first to be cut.

 

3. Brexit

 

With the political change that the UK was already attempting to undertake still underway and the time still ticking on a deal, there is a level of political risk that sours the taste of Sterling in investors’ mouths even further.

 

4. Oil

 

Whilst the UK may not be affected by the value of oil to the same degree as the true commodity currencies (CAD, NOK, RUB), Brent Crude (North Sea Oil) does still have an important influence on the capital flows around Great Britain. The sell-off in Crude Oil prices can still be seen to weaken Sterling slightly.

 

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – Laura Ashley

Laura Ashley

 

Sales having fallen by the relatively small margin of 10% is enough to have pushed the company into appointing Administrators. Sloane Rangers from yesteryear scarcely able to believe it are pinching themselves at this news given the vice like grip those designs had on Middle England for so many years. The virus outbreak has had an immediate and terminal effect on this high street perennial and the clear message is that we should brace ourselves for further chains to go the same way. With 150 stores and 2,700 staff it is a sad day to see Laura Ashley fail despite it being clear that those floral designs had had their day. Tempus fugit….

 

 

Australia

 

So obvious but why haven’t other countries adopted this excellent idea until now? In order to allow elderly shoppers in these extra-ordinary times to avoid aggressive shoppers and their hoarding, and to buy much needed food and other grocery supplies, supermarkets down under are opening one hour earlier for the elderly and advertising a so called Elderly Hour. Bonzer!

 

 

Iran

 

Political correctness gone mad: Students in Iran have made a film as part of a university project which appears to show it raining aubergines. Seems just the thing to jolly us all up in the circumstances. But the Iranian regime has taken a dim view of this “inappropriateness.” The 5 fun and aubergine loving students having been arrested were then paraded on public TV to make their apologies for causing “public disquiet.”

 

 

Lots of tips on what diet to follow to ward off Coronavirus: funnily enough pretty similar to diet tips before it was ever heard of:

 

Citrus fruit, broccoli, yoghurt, garlic, ginger, spinach.

 

 

And (working from) home exercise when you have watched all the box sets and can’t reach any co-workers to talk to:

 

Running on the spot-self explanatory

Push ups- brutal

Jump squats-worse

Side plank rotations-excruciating

Mountain climbers-heart rate higher than when you discover there’s no gin on a Friday night

Lateral shoot throughs-think high plank on one hand and leg combined with a kick.

Bunny hops-sounds benign, but it’s nothing like Watership Down.

Lateral lunges- you will be semi-unconscious by now so no need for explanation.

Bench dips-your arms and hips will be on fire two hours after stopping.

Bear crawls-this will finish you off.

Repeat…but look on the bright side, it has at least taken your mind off the news.

 

 

Meanwhile at SGM-FX….

 

The CEO has arranged for a flu vaccination top up to strengthen stalwart SGM-FX staff’s immune systems: a nurse is due this morning. Huge excitement from Euan on the Client desk who has apparently been re-watching Carry on Doctor.

Better hope it’s Barbara Windsor and not a Hattie Jacques lookalike…Ooh Matron!

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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St Mary Axe view

Morning Brief – Deep and sharp

Deep and sharp

 

Alarm bells are still ringing. Households are on lockdown. Authorities are seemingly powerless to overcome the Coronavirus pandemic. Yesterday the Fed’s almost unprecedented 1% weekend cut in the target rate and a $700bn ramp up in quantitative easing failed to placate markets. If you’re not sure what that means it’s the Fed filling more than 116 Air Force Ones with $100 bills and throwing it over Washington DC for spending. Even a G7 commitment in true Super Mario form to do “whatever is necessary to ensure a strong global response” failed to stem the value bleed from risky investments. The problem Coronavirus presents is becoming ever more pervasive. But surely someone’s got to focus on the silver lining…?! I’ll give it a crack.

 

The global economy looks like it is emerging from one of its longest and largest expansions in history. Without sounding like I’ve suddenly converted to a socialist economy ideology, the world was over indebted and that puts a strain on the very growth that facilitated the debt’s creation. The economy’s natural response is to contract – we get a recession – something like that which we saw during the Great Depression of 2007/8. It’s econ101 – a squiggly line on top of a straight one – the business cycle. In 2007/8 the recession and crisis in the real economy was caused by a financial crisis. That’s particularly damaging because the banking system stops handing out money at the very time when the world needs it. Lending for mortgages, asset purchases and business funding dries up because banks themselves are the subject of immense balance sheet strain and need all the cash they can get their hands on!

 

In fact, a financial crisis has often preceded a crisis and recession in the real economy and the two have seldom been separated. The world was due a correction and, in the absence of an exogenous shock like the coronavirus, and like the oil price shock that we’ve been ‘double punched’ by in recent weeks it might not have come for as long as a couple of years. It would have been long and laborious and cost thousands if not millions of jobs worldwide.

 

Now though, because of the sudden collapse in supply chains, travel, consumer spending and productivity, it’s taps open on monetary and fiscal accommodation. What’s more than that is we have well capitalised banks that can still lend to individuals and business to weather the storm. Many have been offered a deposit ratio of 0% to encourage spending meaning that when its back to business as usual (likely in summer once the peak of the virus has been and gone) the global economy should soar in one of the most aggressive periods of growth in modern history. The combination of oil at $20-30 and cash aplenty will mean that business conditions are optimal once the world is back online. The downturn should in summary be deep and sharp with an impressive V-, not U-, shaped recovery.

 

If that wasn’t enough good news for you, never have I had so much room in which to stretch my arms and accommodate the full majesty of a broadsheet on my morning commute… every cloud!

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – Unprecedented Action

Unprecedented Action

 

Last night’s Federal Reserve action underlined the commitment of global monetary authorities’ to tackle the economic fallout from the virus. The Currency Market is opening steady from the move late on Friday night which no doubt lay behind the weekend decision. GBP a cent stronger versus USD but still sharply lower than London’s close. Markets overall highly nervous and equities selling off again.

 

 

Hydro-Electric Relief for Zambia and Zimbabwe

 

After the worst drought since 1978, it’s been pouring with rain in Angola, and that means that the Zambezi River having been flowing at a comparative trickle has turned into a raging torrent 250 miles away but now coursing towards the Victoria Falls and the very under used hydro-electric dam in Lake Karina the largest man made reservoir in the world which will in turn generate plenty of electricity. At 3,307 cubic meters of water per second coming their way, people in Zimbabwe and Zambia are now sure of an end to the 18 hours a day that they have been without power.

 

 

Bitcoin

 

New word on Friday and it applied to Bitcoin: halfening. It means if you hadn’t worked it out, that the price of Bitcoin in this case, halved in just 2 days from $8,000 to $3,914. Plucky buyers in Hong Kong took it back to $5,250 by lunchtime in Asia. If you were kicking yourself for not having bought and watched it up to $10,367 on Valentine’s Day, you might want to buy some. Or…you might not. Remember like any share if there is a dash to cash, all that valuation stuff goes out of the window. The added challenge with Bitcoin is that liquidity is not always forthcoming. Mind your eye.

 

 

Happy To Help

 

That is of course if Asda is qualified to do so. While filling up with petrol on Friday, I noticed a man with two plastic cans at the pump opposite-unremarkable except that he was talking animatedly on his phone. The tannoy of the unmanned station squawked indignantly followed by the announcement that the use of phones was not permitted on the forecourt and that all pumps would be switched off on the grounds of safety. After 10 minutes an Asda employee arrived and castigated the man with the petrol cans for being on the phone and then told him that in any case cans were not permitted to be filled -also on the grounds of safety. Having brought the petrol station to a halt and with queues of irate Isle of Dogs motorists shouting the odds, plastic can man pushed off.

 

The Asda employee said he was Happy to Help and being fully qualified to do so that he would re-set the system and the pumps would be working again shortly. With that he disappeared into a concrete safety bunker marked Entry Strictly Forbidden. Nothing happened for a time other than that the messaging on all the pumps flickered into life and now read : Out of Service. A further 20 minutes and I, having had enough, opened the bunker door to find the Asda employee punching numbers into the phone. You don’t know how to reset the system, do you? I said. He hung his head and admitted that he did not, and that he was unable to get through to Asda central control to get help.

 

The moral which is especially appropriate in these strange times, other than that one should leave immediately in similar circumstances, is that a disaster recovery plan should always be operated by er….qualified operators. Petrol? 114p if you are wondering. And yes having lost 30 minutes of my life I went up the road and paid 125p. Older, wiser and poorer for the Asda experience.

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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