Tag Archives: Humphrey Percy

St Mary Axe view

Morning Brief – Market News

Market News


Oil firmer to $22 on the back of POTUS saying that he is expecting Russia and Saudi Arabia to reach agreement on both supplies and pricing soon. USD stronger. Equity markets remarkably stable on the back of horrible but expected US Unemployment figures with 6.65 million new claims. France is preparing a second stimulus package with the likely target to be the beleaguered French auto industry. GBP firm especially against ZAR, NZD and AUD.
Strong man Viktor Orban’s win to rule Hungary by decree has backfired spectacularly sparking huge sell offs in the Hungarian Forint-HUF and forcing VO to perform a U turn as the EU are taking a keen interest which could lead not only to a suspension of EU voting rights but more importantly the cutting of the multiple billions that Hungary receives from the EU budget.



Last business day of the UK Tax Year


Today marks the last business day for the UK tax year, so for those of you affected by that, you only have a few more hours to take actions on investments, dividend payments and other financial matters where you do at least know what the current tax regime holds for the consequences of your decisions. Starting next week all around the world economies will be embarking on voyages in new tax environments where both the quantum and the timeframe for the repayment of the ginormous economic stimuli are unknown. All that is known is that in some shape or form there will be payback. A more cheerful consequence of all this is that there are some bargains on offer in the wine world if you know where to look online and of course …..you can get it delivered!



Shenzhen: The first city in China


Surely some mistake, it’s Beijing you say? Not a bit of it Shenzhen came out yesterday with the reassuring news that it is indeed the first city in China to ban eating cats and dogs… USD v CNY at 7.10 unchanged but widespread relief in the companion pet world…in Shenzhen at least.



World Food Prices


This may come as a surprise to you as it did to us to learn that the United Nations Food Agency has declared that March saw one of the largest falls in global food prices. This was down to two factors: first to a drop in demand as everyone was staying at home and second the dramatic fall in oil prices due to the economic slowdown. The prices in UK supermarkets are not just anecdotally higher but it is a fact that Tesco withdrew many of its offers two weeks ago and Sainsbury’s soon followed suit. Waitrose just became (even) more expensive. So that means….with demand full or more than full and prices lower, supermarket shares are destined to vastly increase their profitability and consequently outperform.


Wishing you a healthy, happy and peaceful weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – V or U?

V or U?


Studying the various analyses issued throughout the day from the Far East through to Europe and on to North America on this topic, it is important to appreciate that the authors of these reports simply do not know whether the economic recession is going to be a sharp V or a long U. It all depends (obviously) on when everyone from Wuhan to Western Europe to Washington can all get back to work. And that depends on a whole range of known unknowns, as Donald Rumsfeld once said in respect of Iraq, and therefore in a completely different context.
All I can say is that within an hour or so yesterday, two completely conflicting reports were issued: the first set out to prove that the Chinese economy was on a path to fully recover in the course of 2020 ie a sharp V. The second was headlined that economists had now given up on the likelihood of a V shaped recession and had resigned themselves to a long U.
Yesterday was no different than most days In the recent past: volatile equity markets, wide ranges in currency pairs, oil weak then strengthening etc etc. As we closed the first quarter of 2020 we looked back to our prediction at the end of 2019 that Q1 would see increasing volatility-that is the understatement of the past year and in fact a great deal longer!
At SGM-FX we have succeeded in creating a single virtual office from 14 different locations in the past two weeks and our continuing aim is to deliver the same seamless service to you from those remote locations that we normally provide from 41 Eastcheap.
So from places including E14 to Harrow to Stevenage to Stratford to Islington to Bexley to Dartford to Sandhurst to Putney and the list goes on, we at SGM-FX wish you a healthy and happy Q2 2020.



April Fools Day


It is always tempting to write something of a spoof on April 1st, but I will not do so given the fact that in the present circumstances in particular that might lead to an expensive mistake being made if someone took a decision based on such a false premise. Instead I have researched the Top 100 April Fools of all time and I am pleased to report that in Number One position from 1957 is the BBC Panorama spoof which did the job in spades and remains one of the greatest funny hoaxes of all time. Here it is:


April 1, 1957: The respected BBC news show Panorama announced that thanks to a very mild winter and the virtual elimination of the dreaded spaghetti weevil, Swiss farmers were enjoying a bumper spaghetti crop. It accompanied this announcement with footage of Swiss peasants pulling strands of spaghetti down from trees. Huge numbers of viewers were taken in. Many called the BBC wanting to know how they could grow their own spaghetti tree. To this the BBC diplomatically replied, “place a sprig of spaghetti in a tin of tomato sauce and hope for the best.” Even the director-general of the BBC later admitted that after seeing the show he checked in an encyclopedia to find out if that was how spaghetti actually grew (but the encyclopedia had no information on the topic).



Coming of Age: The Euro


Just over 21 years ago on 1-1-99 the European Union adopted the Euro as the common currency to replace the ECU for those first 11 member states to join. Over the next 16 years a further 8 countries signed up. And another 7 are as of now in the preparatory stage of joining. It is fair to say though, that of those 7, most of them due to economic conditions having changed, are almost certain to need to pass referendums to enable them to get the backing from their publics. 2008 and 2012 were both huge tests for the Euro and Europe for different reasons than to today. 2020 is much more about the individual countries both symbolically, and in some cases actually, having closed their borders. For the first time for more than 60 years the agenda has focused on nation states rather than common interests.

For those readers who are interested, the low versus the USD was on 1-1-02 when it reached 0.90 and the high? 1.60 in July 2008.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – OPEC+



The Russians have now said that if other countries agree to join them, Russia will be willing to re-open negotiations with OPEC. In reply-although it was definitively not a reply- the Saudis have said that they have not received any such overtures. It is in the rest of the world’s interests for OPEC+ to hammer out an agreement and an orderly approach to both supply and pricing not only for global economies to be able to plan how best to recover from the Covid-19 hit, but also to calm the as ever febrile economic and political atmosphere of the Middle East.



Spectacular Own Goal


‘I was denounced as somebody that wanted to spend more money than we could possibly afford… I didn’t think that it would take only three months for me to be proved absolutely right by the amount of money that government is now prepared to put in.’


It’s not often that SGM-FX would choose to quote Jeremy Corbyn verbatim (or any other politician for that matter) but to confuse the Covid-19 economic life support mechanism with the management of the economy in normal times betrays a startling lack of a basic grasp of economics. It was JC’s final appearance on the big pitch of the House of Commons as Leader of the Opposition and his final opportunity to be statesmanlike and leave an impression that he would like to be remembered for. However when confronted with such an open goal he somehow managed to backheel the ball the length of the pitch past his goalkeeper into his own net. Respect!



Vincent Van Gogh 1853-1890



Today is Vincent’s birthday – his 167th in fact. When he died at the age of 37 he had completed approximately 900 pieces of work that he had either given away or mostly parlayed for food, absinthe and lodging( not necessarily in that order). There are probably 800 pieces left following natural events such as fires and less natural such as wars-especially WW2. Some of his works go for $100million+ but some of his drawings go for as little as $1million. Research shows that conservatively VVG’s portfolio today is worth more than $10 Billion. Now that puts most 37 year old master of the universe hedge fund managers in the shade. Here is Don McLean and the start of his 1971 song Vincent:


Starry, starry night
Paint your palette blue and grey
Look out on a summer’s day
With eyes that know the darkness in my soul
Shadows on the hills
Sketch the trees and the daffodils
Catch the breeze and the winter chills
In colors on the snowy linen land




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – End of the Week Round Up

End of the Week Round Up


It is positive if not fully refreshing to be able to comment that at $22.88 WTI Oil has steadied, stock markets put in a second decent session yesterday after an early wobble in Europe, gold is at $1628 and GBP has clawed its way back to its best level for the past week versus USD and EUR. Also as highlighted in earlier Briefings, the ZAR is at its lowest ie the most advantageous level against EUR, GBP and USD for the last 4 years.


SGM-FX HQ is fully staffed (albeit remotely) and we pride ourselves on continuing to deliver both the very best service to you our Clients. What we used before “Lockdown” to call “normal”, has been replaced by a new way of working with instant communication over both audio and video internet mediums and our hours of business are unchanged. So please do give us a call/ mail and we will be pleased to talk/reply responsively and rapidly.



Working From Home


There are some unforeseen consequences of WFH where the blame can be fairly laid on all those journalists who have been detailed by their Editors to write about keep fit exercises that one can do at home. Let’s just get it out of the way : it is very many years since many of our readers will have experienced carpet burn but following the daily home keep fit guides in the newspapers on how best to execute planks, mountain climbers and bear crawls in front of your wide screen, knees, knuckles and elbows throughout the land in all countries will have taken a beating on sitting room hearth rugs. Expect Bandaids and Savlon to be in short supply! So if you want to get ahead of the game you should think about buying the largest medical supplier in the world, Johnson and Johnson shares at $119 down from nearly $160 in January…..!



Statistic of the Week


While the team at SGM-FX have been closely monitoring markets and looking for value in the world’s currency pairs, forced to stay at home citizens of Canada have clearly had their minds on a different set of priorities:
With Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN on for 12-18 hours a day as usual, tracking global market movements in commodities, currencies, bonds, gold, equities and government bonds we at SGM-FX could of course expound further on all of that and more, but instead, we want to alert you to the key stat of the week : internet sales of sex toys has increased since the lock down in Canada by no less than 135%.
O Canada!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our land glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.


Have a great and safe weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – For UK Business Readers

For UK Business Readers


Here is a useful summary of what the UK Government is offering UK businesses:



For those of you who submit self assessment returns, before you ignore the item above, do look at the final box above which does help.




Too early to heave a sigh of relief but certainly an opportunity to catch one’s breath; the USD having risen in an almost straight line for 11 days has now retraced a bit and there is talk of a return to currency intervention by the Federal Reserve. Gold at $1672 and most Stock Markets up by between 3 and 6% has given a more positive tone. The Dow had its largest rise for decades and finished up 11%. That positivity has extended into the Asian markets this morning. GBP steadier. USD weaker. EUR on its lows but again steady.


Rocket Man


Surprisingly this is not about POTUS and The description he gives to Kim Jong Il of North Korea. Today is Elton John’s 72nd birthday and funnily enough it was 1972 when he released one of his greatest songs, Rocket Man. For teenagers at that time Elton John was generating the most exciting music of anyone and when Goodbye Yellow Brick Road came out the following year, Elton John’s records were spinning on every self respecting pop enthusiast’s turntables. The rest is history!

Happy Birthday Elton!


Rocket Man

Rocket Man


She packed my bags last night pre-flight
Zero hour nine AM
And I’m gonna be high as a kite by then
I miss the earth so much I miss my wife
It’s lonely out in space
On such a timeless flight


And I think it’s gonna be a long long time
‘Till touch down brings me round again to find
I’m not the man they think I am at home
Oh no no no I’m a rocket man
Rocket man burning out his fuse up here alone


And I think it’s gonna be a long long time
‘Till touch down brings me round again to find
I’m not the man they think I am at home
Oh no no no I’m a rocket man
Rocket man burning out his fuse up here alone


Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids
In fact it’s cold as hell
And there’s no one there to raise them if you did
And all this science I don’t understand




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Situation summary

Situation summary


Oil at the lowest level since 2001, stock markets off 30%, gold lower at $1476 than it was on January 1, interest rates cut in 50 countries to help, the US Dollar has appreciated by 10%. The secondary effects are as follows: travel restrictions in place in 100 countries, airlines have been hardest hit with flights from the USA to Asia down 98%. Restaurant bookings have fallen by 90% from the same period in 2019.Car sales in China have also fallen by 90%. Global growth forecast is 2.2% versus 2.8% for 2019. It is the sheer speed and the size of the moves that have taken markets and consumers by surprise-but there again in this age of perfect communication especially when it comes to bad news, we should not be surprised. Markets and especially currency markets remain choppy at the beginning of the week.

Just to repeat the FX mantra with apologies for it beginning to sound like a self help lecture(!): set objectives, put protection in place and patience will be rewarded.

SGM-FX remains open and busy with and for you our clients; we are working a full day-every day!



Russian Constitution


In case it’s passed you by, President Putin’s amendment to the Russian Constitution will let him stand in 2024 and that means he could remain in power(legally) until 2036. There have been some protests over the weekend about this but these have been muted due to the illegality of any large gatherings as well as the protesters taking each others’ temperatures and finding it difficult to make much noise from behind their face masks.

The relevance of this in particular at present is the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia which has generated still more invective over the weekend with Russia blaming the Gulf nations and KSA especially. WTI at $22.63 now.



Glastonbury 2021


No not a typo: in case you missed it those who have paid the £50 deposit for this year have been told that they can put it against the 2021 festival. Taylor Swift, Sir Paul McCartney and Diana Ross were just a few of the top names who have been stood down. The 200,000 fans who are disappointed by the reluctant decision to cancel this year have been promised a line up in 2021 guaranteed to wow them. Meanwhile it is by no means certain that the other pop festivals scheduled for the summer months will be able to proceed.

Live streaming from Coldplay, Bruce Springsteen, Yungblood, Christine and the Queens plus some social distancing in your tepee in your back garden is the only realistic 2020 cool and safe vibe.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – GBP



Having fallen to USD 1.14 last night, GBP has bounced off that level and against all currencies including EUR it is stronger this morning. It has been a very long week and it is not over yet(!). Just to remind you, GBP started the week on Sunday night in the Far East at USD1.24.





With WTI now at $25.62 and the Saudis and the Russians engaged in their high stakes game of poker with oil supplies and prices, the world’s capacity to store oil is being severely tested given the slow down in demand due to the economic impact of Covid19. As land based storage facilities are filling up, traders are looking to water based storage ie using oil tankers as storage rather than transport. Last week Glencore rented 1 of only 2 ULCC or Ultra Large Crude Carriers which can take 3 million barrels. Tanker rates are soaring for super tankers: a 6 month contract is now $85K per day or $15.3 million, while a 3 month contract is $150K per day or $13.5 million. Ship owners are enjoying the ride while OPEC members are nervously hoping that Russia and Saudi Arabia patch things up soon…..

For those of you who are wondering about the price history, I have gone back to the end of WW2 and yes that was 1 of the 3 times that WTI has been at this price level. The others being 1973 and 1999. At the other end of the scale, the high in the past 75 years was in June 2008 when it was $165.



E scooter and Bike rentals


The two largest companies Lime and Bird started by suspending their services in 11 states in the USA and have now suspended their services in many European cities with the restrictions in place on people movement. With e scooters already an increasing feature of many cities, many are hoping that there is some clear legislation regarding their usage and in particular which part of the road they should stick to.



A story for our times….


The last time that I can recollect people in this country stocking up or less charitably hoarding supplies of staple goods was much earlier in my foreign exchange career when I was trading Swiss Francs (CHF). On 24-04-80 President Jimmy Carter gave the go-ahead to invade Iran for the purpose of rescuing the 44 American hostages that Ayatollah Khomeini had detained. Operation Eagle Claw was launched and included the USS Nimitz the high tech symbol of the USA’s fearsome nuclear power as well as 8 helicopters. As is well known the mission was a conspicuous failure as only 5 helicopters made it to the landing zone. Upon the advice of his generals, Carter then aborted the mission which prompted the Ayatollah to declare it an act of God or as he put it “Angels of God” which had intervened to protect Iran, him and his theocratic government from the Great Satan.

Meanwhile back on the trading desk, all hell was breaking out and suddenly the CHF was the most wanted currency in the world and I was in the hot seat. The spectacle of the mighty USA humbled in this way prompted a run on bottled water, baked beans, candles, torches and batteries. Epilogue: Some of my then colleagues who “went long” baked beans were feeding them to their luckless children for the next 2 or 3 years.



Popular Mechanics Magazine


Amazingly this publication still exists today with a website and also is popular……despite or maybe because of their 1949 prediction: Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. SGM-FX’s IT guru, Michael shook his head sadly as he headed off home with his ultra light PC weighing just 1.35 kg. “Just tragic” he muttered.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Laura Ashley

Laura Ashley


Sales having fallen by the relatively small margin of 10% is enough to have pushed the company into appointing Administrators. Sloane Rangers from yesteryear scarcely able to believe it are pinching themselves at this news given the vice like grip those designs had on Middle England for so many years. The virus outbreak has had an immediate and terminal effect on this high street perennial and the clear message is that we should brace ourselves for further chains to go the same way. With 150 stores and 2,700 staff it is a sad day to see Laura Ashley fail despite it being clear that those floral designs had had their day. Tempus fugit….





So obvious but why haven’t other countries adopted this excellent idea until now? In order to allow elderly shoppers in these extra-ordinary times to avoid aggressive shoppers and their hoarding, and to buy much needed food and other grocery supplies, supermarkets down under are opening one hour earlier for the elderly and advertising a so called Elderly Hour. Bonzer!





Political correctness gone mad: Students in Iran have made a film as part of a university project which appears to show it raining aubergines. Seems just the thing to jolly us all up in the circumstances. But the Iranian regime has taken a dim view of this “inappropriateness.” The 5 fun and aubergine loving students having been arrested were then paraded on public TV to make their apologies for causing “public disquiet.”



Lots of tips on what diet to follow to ward off Coronavirus: funnily enough pretty similar to diet tips before it was ever heard of:


Citrus fruit, broccoli, yoghurt, garlic, ginger, spinach.



And (working from) home exercise when you have watched all the box sets and can’t reach any co-workers to talk to:


Running on the spot-self explanatory

Push ups- brutal

Jump squats-worse

Side plank rotations-excruciating

Mountain climbers-heart rate higher than when you discover there’s no gin on a Friday night

Lateral shoot throughs-think high plank on one hand and leg combined with a kick.

Bunny hops-sounds benign, but it’s nothing like Watership Down.

Lateral lunges- you will be semi-unconscious by now so no need for explanation.

Bench dips-your arms and hips will be on fire two hours after stopping.

Bear crawls-this will finish you off.

Repeat…but look on the bright side, it has at least taken your mind off the news.



Meanwhile at SGM-FX….


The CEO has arranged for a flu vaccination top up to strengthen stalwart SGM-FX staff’s immune systems: a nurse is due this morning. Huge excitement from Euan on the Client desk who has apparently been re-watching Carry on Doctor.

Better hope it’s Barbara Windsor and not a Hattie Jacques lookalike…Ooh Matron!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Unprecedented Action

Unprecedented Action


Last night’s Federal Reserve action underlined the commitment of global monetary authorities’ to tackle the economic fallout from the virus. The Currency Market is opening steady from the move late on Friday night which no doubt lay behind the weekend decision. GBP a cent stronger versus USD but still sharply lower than London’s close. Markets overall highly nervous and equities selling off again.



Hydro-Electric Relief for Zambia and Zimbabwe


After the worst drought since 1978, it’s been pouring with rain in Angola, and that means that the Zambezi River having been flowing at a comparative trickle has turned into a raging torrent 250 miles away but now coursing towards the Victoria Falls and the very under used hydro-electric dam in Lake Karina the largest man made reservoir in the world which will in turn generate plenty of electricity. At 3,307 cubic meters of water per second coming their way, people in Zimbabwe and Zambia are now sure of an end to the 18 hours a day that they have been without power.





New word on Friday and it applied to Bitcoin: halfening. It means if you hadn’t worked it out, that the price of Bitcoin in this case, halved in just 2 days from $8,000 to $3,914. Plucky buyers in Hong Kong took it back to $5,250 by lunchtime in Asia. If you were kicking yourself for not having bought and watched it up to $10,367 on Valentine’s Day, you might want to buy some. Or…you might not. Remember like any share if there is a dash to cash, all that valuation stuff goes out of the window. The added challenge with Bitcoin is that liquidity is not always forthcoming. Mind your eye.



Happy To Help


That is of course if Asda is qualified to do so. While filling up with petrol on Friday, I noticed a man with two plastic cans at the pump opposite-unremarkable except that he was talking animatedly on his phone. The tannoy of the unmanned station squawked indignantly followed by the announcement that the use of phones was not permitted on the forecourt and that all pumps would be switched off on the grounds of safety. After 10 minutes an Asda employee arrived and castigated the man with the petrol cans for being on the phone and then told him that in any case cans were not permitted to be filled -also on the grounds of safety. Having brought the petrol station to a halt and with queues of irate Isle of Dogs motorists shouting the odds, plastic can man pushed off.


The Asda employee said he was Happy to Help and being fully qualified to do so that he would re-set the system and the pumps would be working again shortly. With that he disappeared into a concrete safety bunker marked Entry Strictly Forbidden. Nothing happened for a time other than that the messaging on all the pumps flickered into life and now read : Out of Service. A further 20 minutes and I, having had enough, opened the bunker door to find the Asda employee punching numbers into the phone. You don’t know how to reset the system, do you? I said. He hung his head and admitted that he did not, and that he was unable to get through to Asda central control to get help.


The moral which is especially appropriate in these strange times, other than that one should leave immediately in similar circumstances, is that a disaster recovery plan should always be operated by er….qualified operators. Petrol? 114p if you are wondering. And yes having lost 30 minutes of my life I went up the road and paid 125p. Older, wiser and poorer for the Asda experience.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Aussie Rules

Aussie Rules


F1 fans expected this weekend’s opening race in Melbourne to be officially postponed despite F1 fiercely resisting it given the costs of staging each race and the tight timetable between races in different countries. It all requires detailed and flawless planning and execution to move the F1 circus every week during the racing season. However the market is probably the most reliable indicator on the cancellation with a whopping $600 Million in value being wiped off F1 shares yesterday which takes the hit to $2.6 Billion since January. It is estimated that each F1 car costs $15.5 Million before costs such as development, drivers, fuel, transport etc etc. So no wonder that F1 organisers and manufacturers are more than a little hot and bothered at the implications of no revenues from advertising for all that investment. China has already cancelled their Grand Prix, Bahrain will be holding their Grand Prix but without spectators and Vietnam’s inaugural Grand Prix is under threat.



FTSE history


Unsurprisingly equity markets had a very bad day yesterday. With the FTSE down at 5,250, 1-6-18 and 7860 the all time high seems another world. At SGM-FX we believed that the UK offered value at the beginning of the year given that the UK market had been weighed down for the previous 18 months by the Brexit debate saga. So it’s tin hats on and if readers do have ISA money or other liquid savings, the consolation is that the UK now offers great value. For those of you who have short memories we have been at 5,250 before: in fact in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2002, 1998 and 1997 all immediately come to mind. As for GBP it has become caught up in the further Dash for Dollars movement which in tandem with the expectation that the Bank of England will not hesitate to ease further, means that GBP continues to look weak.



Himalayas and the flatlands of….Essex


Talking of high peaks rather than low troughs, climbers of Mount Everest have been banned from climbing up the Chinese side of the mountain but the Nepal side remains open to teams determined to scale the highest mountain in the world at 29,000 feet or 8,848 metres. Nearer to home, SGM-FX’s James and keen scout (Motto: Be Prepared) is downcast at the news that August’s Scout Jamboree due to be held In Essex, UK for 9,000 scouts from all over the world has been cancelled. At least we have been spared the sight of James’s knees- never mind his woggle!


Nice weekend everybody…and stay safe and well!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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