Tag Archives: forex analysis

UK buildings

Morning Brief – Tough day at the Commons

Tough day at the Commons


Everywhere from government to markets, households to workplaces, people are looking two ways with respect to the pandemic. Firstly, at what is ahead and the promise of a vaccine and secondly, what lies between then and now. However, not one of these collectives have better demonstrated this ‘mind the gap’ analysis of the pandemic than Chancellor Sunak in the House of Commons yesterday. His chancellorship following the swift replacement of Sajid Javid has been one characterised by the big cheque book. Praised for taking the necessary steps to support the economy with hugely expensive policies including the furlough scheme, he is now exploring the less familiar path of budgetary parsimony. Yesterday’s announcement in the commons saw a whiplash style spending review with large spending commitments peppered with warnings of a huge bill to come next year.


This week has seen considerable changes take place to the UK political economic outlook. Between the announcements on Monday regarding new social restrictions and the Chancellor’s spending review yesterday, a somewhat bleak picture is emerging for the UK economy over the 4th Quarter of this year and the Spring. Despite some large spending commitments yesterday from the Chancellor the projection is for the UK economy to enter a double dip recession in Q4 this year and unemployment to peak next year at 7.5%. The lockdown restrictions remain severe regardless of which tier a region is placed in. With the hospitality sector still under considerable threat in tiers two and three and everyone who can work from home ordered to do so still across tiers 1, 2 and 3, further business closures are to be expected.


Part of the Chancellor’s spending review included a £2.9bn programme to help stave off the rise in unemployment. Dubbed the Restart scheme, the initiative so far has been criticised for not taking adequate measures to ensure job vacancies exist for the scheme to reallocate the long-term unemployed. Winners and losers were produced by yesterday’s spending announcements with schools, hospitals, police and prisons picking up extra funding at the expense of the overseas aid budget.


Sterling found support during the chancellor’s announcements to the House of Commons yesterday despite the £394bn fiscal deficit expected this year. Commentators seemed optimistic that pledges made in the manifesto had been honoured in the spending review reinforcing the return to normality next year and upgrading the supply side of the UK economy. The ruling out of austerity next year to fund the deficit also encouraged GBP higher. Mr Sunak also did not comment on how the deficit would be funded – higher tax or lower spending – despite warnings of a tough road ahead.




Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – EUR, AUD, NZD stronger against USD

EUR, AUD, NZD stronger against USD


While the market likes the appointment of Janet Yellen as Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary, the onward march of the risk currencies against USD continues. NZD strengthened 0.9% and AUD 0.4%. NZD is now on a 2 year high versus USD at $0.6985.




With the Dow breaking 30,000 for the first time and up 1.43%, inevitably WTI oil joined the party and stood just below $45 last night. FTSE 100 up 1.55%.

All on the back of Biden and vaccines. GBP a little softer against USD at 1.3340.


Hot Air


Whatever transpires in the foreseeable post COVID future, eating al fresco is going to be in demand globally and not just in warmer climes. That means a couple of things for savvier restaurants and cafes: firstly that close by outside space needs to be grabbed and secondly that primitive and inefficient patio heaters will not cut it.

Assuming those two requirements are met, demand for propane gas will rocket (unfortunate pun). SGM-FX’s Edwin Holland, anxious to prove in these hot air stakes at least that he is less mouth and more trousers, has been looking into the USA’s propane consumption and learnt it stood at 284 million gallons in 2019. In 2020 that has soared to 500 million gallons. UGI the largest, and owner of American Cylinder Exchange and also Suburban Propane have both seen their shares fall 20% this year as markets have not yet spotted the probability of even greater growth in propane cylinder demand.

Trends that start in the USA tend to spread to Western Europe and beyond, so expect similar gas cylinder companies in other colder places to see a corresponding uptick in demand. Eating Out has a whole new literal meaning!




It was this day in 1965 that the global fame of the Beatles was such that when they expressed a desire to do their Christmas shopping in Knightsbridge emporium Harrods, the then management extended the same privilege to the FabFour that they normally reserve for the Queen: they shut the store to everyone else. Three years later in 1968 the Beatles released the White Album with their very best songs including George Harrison’s While My Guitar Gently Weeps:


I look at you all, see the love there that’s sleeping
While my guitar gently weeps
I look at the floor and I see it needs sweeping
Still my guitar gently weeps


I don’t know why nobody told you
How to unfold your love
I don’t know how someone controlled you
They bought and sold you


I look at the world and I notice it’s turning
While my guitar gently weeps
With every mistake we must surely be learning
Still my guitar gently weeps




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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St Mary Axe view

Morning Brief – T’was 33 nights before Christmas..

T’was 33 nights before Christmas..


When all through the foreign exchange market not a cross was stirring, not even the Pound. Sterling longs were hung by the CME with care, in the hopes that Mr (Lord) Frost would be there soon.


That’s enough poetic parody from me for this year, but Clement Clarke Moore’s scene of tranquility can be likened to the European open yesterday. The Pound was one of the only decisive movers anticipating a potential Brexit breakthrough over the next few days and optimistic about the UK’s new AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus Vaccine. The rest of the market displayed below average volatility and price change. The rally in the Pound too was ultimately contained short of three month highs despite several attempts to break higher.


Data yesterday should have been of relatively low salience limited to European and US Purchasing Managers’ indices (PMIs) that provide a timely reading of sentiment and confidence in underlying segments of an economy. The European PMIs came and went showing deteriorating confidence and optimism in the Eurozone economy both in manufacturing and services. The data follows rising numbers of infection on the continent and a slowdown in Q3’s swift economic rebound. Despite the downbeat data the Euro continued to find higher grounds also supported by optimism on securing a Brexit deal and tested another psychological level in EURUSD. The PMIs were largely ignored or discounted therefore.


We might have expected a similar reaction to US PMIs but the morning’s snowy scene of tranquility and calm was ripped apart by the US data. Instead of contracting as per the forecasts both manufacturing and services PMIs came in considerably better than expected (56.7 vs. 53 & 57.7 vs. 55 respectively). The psychological levels that the Dollar has weakened to throughout the morning’s trade against both the Pound and the Euro were rapidly retreated from. The data also stood in sharp contrast to a deteriorating economic backdrop across much of Europe and Asia and therefore invited optimistic assessments of the US’ near-term economic fortunes, pushing USD higher. Despite having steadied overnight and throughout today’s session so far, the severe price movements are a reminder of how quickly markets can move even within major pairs. Profit and loss orders proved their worth yesterday with the short-term moves allowing our customers to realise their FX goals.




Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – Germany



Another tale of one of the world’s leading economies borrowing much more to do what it takes: this time it is Germany and the announcement that the Finance Minister plans to take on more than EUR 160 billion or USD 190 billion in debt in 2021 to counter Covid. The German government expects GDP to contract by 5.5% in 2020 and to grow 4.4% in 2021. If that proves to be correct the arithmetic means that Germany’s GDP will still be net minus 1.34% after 2 years.





Yesterday the streets of the capital of Taiwan were full of protesters for the annual “Autumn Struggle”march which this year was focused on the government’s decision to ease restrictions on imports of US pork despite concerns for food safety. US pork contains the drug Ractopamine which while encouraging leanness is banned in both China and the EU. The government rationale is that this easing will enhance links between the USA and Taiwan which most observers including and especially China hitherto believed had no need for enhancement. So far this year the New Taiwan Dollar has only strengthened versus USD from 30.5 to 28.5 an increase of 6.5%.



Electric Vehicles


Now that the announcement has been made in the UK that new car sales of petrol and diesel vehicles will be banned after 2030, attention will turn to the knotty problem of charging them. Less than 7% of new vehicles are fully electric but 1 in 4 are hybrid. The UK Gov website loftily says that there are more than 4,000 charging points in the UK but misses the point that only a tiny proportion of cars use them. At 8 hours for a full charge, the only practicable way to achieve that is overnight. Most drivers go for a 100 mile top up which takes 35 minutes with a rapid charger. Setting off from home to refuel might involve rather a long wait unless of course dramatic advances in both batteries and charging infrastructure happen in the next 9 years. That could explain the small print which says that hybrid vehicle sales will be permitted in the UK until 2035.



The Moon: Ocean of Storms


Nothing much to do with financial markets on Planet Earth, but China is set to be the third nation after the USA and USSR to land on the Moon with the intention of bringing back 2kg of lunar rock. This week the Chang e5 unmanned mission will launch with the target destination of the Moon’s Ocean of Storms which is a huge lava plain and has never previously been visited. For those wondering when it was that the previous missions brought back Moon samples, it was back in the 1970’s, round about the time that Pink Floyd released Dark Side of the Moon. Honestly you had to be there but the music has lasted better than the lyrics:


“I’ve always been mad, I know I’ve been mad, like the
most of us…very hard to explain why you’re mad, even
if you’re not mad…” Breathe
Breathe, breathe in the air
Don’t be afraid to care
Leave but don’t leave me
Look around and choose your own ground


Long you live and high you fly
And smiles you’ll give and tears you’ll cry
And all you touch and all you see
Is all your life will ever be


Run, rabbit run
Dig that hole, forget the sun
And when at last the work is done
Don’t sit down it’s time to dig another one


For long you live and high you fly But only if you ride the tide
And balanced on the biggest wave
You race towards an early grave
On The Run

“Live for today, gone tomorrow, that’s me, HaHaHaaaaaa!”




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – U.S. Employment

U.S. Employment


It is all too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when analysing the weekly U.S. jobless claims which for the week ending 14-11-20 saw a rise of 742,000 as further business closures to combat rising Covid infections took their toll. This compared to 711,000 the previous week and a forecast of 707,000. To put these numbers in perspective, the peak of U.S. jobless claims in the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 was 665,000. Claims are of course a very important part of the picture, but the key statistic in any economy is the number of jobs created or lost over a period. In March and April 2020, 22.2 million jobs were lost in the USA. To date only 12.1 million of those jobs have been recovered. USD unmoved on the release.




Oil was on the skids last night on Covid effect fears on global demand. WTI was at $41.52. More positively for oil, OPEC+ are reported to be considering a delay in the scheduled January 2021 boost of 2 million barrels a day in output. As we have written before, despite vaccine optimism there is still an effective cap on oil prices. Meanwhile Russia and Saudi Arabia are both exporting approx 1.6 million barrels of oil per day to China and the hope is that level of demand will be maintained as a key driver of the global economy.


Crocodile Rock


It was this day in 1972 that Elton John released Crocodile Rock which was his first Number 1 in the USA and went Gold within 2 days of its release. Due to a less than hip ex colleague of mine who at the time of Elton John’s knighthood ceremony was the Queen’s Lord Chamberlain, Elton was announced as John Elton, a mistake that was immediately rectified and the newly ennobled Sir Elton John emerged from Buckingham Palace. Back in 1979, the then Mr Elton John was the first Western rock artist to play in the Soviet Union following in the footsteps of pop stars Cliff Richard and Boney M. Tickets were priced at 8 Roubles which was the same amount of the average daily wage at that time. Elton played 4 concerts in each of St Petersburg and Moscow which were all sold out. USD v Russian Rouble untroubled on this anniversary at 76.4.


I remember when rock was young
Me and Susie had so much fun
Holding hands and skimming stones
Had an old gold Chevy, and a place of my own

But the biggest kick I ever got
Was doing a thing called the Crocodile Rock
While the other kids were rocking ’round the clock
We were hopping and bopping to the Crocodile Rock, well

Crocodile rocking is something shocking
When your feet just can’t keep still
I never knew me a better time and I guess I never will
Oh, lawdy mama those Friday nights
When Suzie wore her dresses tight
And the Crocodile rocking was out of sight


Have a great weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Skyscraper view

Morning Brief – Playground Pharmaceuticals

Playground Pharmaceuticals


Not wanting to be outbid, Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine partners returned to the numbers to check the efficacy of their vaccine. Their headline of 90% published only last week was bettered by Moderna’s vaccine. Not only could Moderna’s vaccine be stored and transported more easily despite relying on similar fundamentals, but they claimed a near 95% success rate. Not wanting to lose the limelight, a brief revamp of the figures at Pfizer and the statisticians managed to find the missing 5%. The claim whilst looking like corporate playground jostling puts the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine back on top. Aside from being amusing to watch two multi-billion Dollar companies squabble over a handful of percentage points, the vaccine breakthroughs have shifted major market participants’ forecasts for the Dollar.


As we have said many times, due to the Dollar‘s safehaven status the resolution of a global upset, such as the pandemic, should cause an unwinding of defensive demand that has accrued behind the US Dollar. The success of these two vaccines is considerable fundamentally because the trials prove that the virus that causes Covid-19 can be warded off by vaccination. Before testing, we didn’t know if this was possible or if, as with many ailments in life, it cannot be vaccinated against. Therefore corporate squabbling of ‘my vaccine is better than your vaccine’ only develops the fact that in most of the population we have a weapon to fight Covid-19 beyond therapeutics.


The consensus forecast among analysts for 2021’s EURUSD pair is 1.21. But partially that reflects a relatively strong performance by the Euro as we emerge from the pandemic. The Dollar across the board is expected to weaken much faster with emerging market and commodity currencies in particular expected to claw back ground on the greenback. In a recent research note, Citi Bank analysts commented that the Dollar could fall as much as 20% next year alone. The perfect Dollar storm of a Covid vaccine, Republican President Biden at the helm and a Federal Reserve stuck in grab the bucket mode could facilitate this outcome.




Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – Lufthansa



The German airline and its subsidiaries Eurowings, Swiss, Austrian and Brussels Airlines have announced that as of next year Economy passengers will no longer be offered free meals and snacks but will have to pay for them like for example Ryanair, Easyjet and BA. Lufthansa and Swiss will however offer Economy passengers a complimentary bottle of water but the message is that if your choice of fare is predicated by complimentary food and refreshments, then you will need to stump up for Club. Lufthansa shares that started 2020 at just under EUR18 and fell to EUR7 are now, since the Covid19 vaccine news last week, just under EUR10. Before you pile in and buy Lufthansa shares,  it is worth knowing that for the first time the airline industry is now talking about passenger numbers not returning to where they were in December 2019 until ……..2025.


Atacama Desert


This area is where no less than a quarter of global production of lithium necessary for batteries in cell phones and electric vehicles is sourced. Albemarle Corp of the USA is in dispute with Chilean miner SQM because SQM is declining to share the contents of a sensitive environmental impact report with its US rival. The mining in the Atacama Desert is solely conducted by these two companies but concerns of the ecological damage have been mounting and not least for the negative impact on the flamingos that live there. The report is due for completion in February but the Chileans are understandably not committing to share it with their American rivals. For those wanting to get aboard the lithium rollercoaster, Albemarle shares currently unaffected by the environmental report and which are quoted on Nasdaq opened in Jan 2020 at $75 before falling to below $50 in the March fall out and now?…….$128.88.


John Denver


This day back in 1975, Henry John Deutschendorf Jr who had sensibly adopted the professional name of John Denver had a Double Number 1 in the Billboard Top Hot 100 chart with I’m Sorry and Calypso. Way ahead of his time, John Denver used his musical success as a platform for his political ambitions which were predominantly to do with ecological issues. At the age of 54 and with over 2,700 hours pilot experience, John Denver took his new Long EZ experimental plane out for a flight across Monterey Bay in California in  1997. Crashing in to the Bay for unexplained reasons but probably due to having run out of fuel, John Denver was killed on impact. Calypso was the name of marine environmentalist Jacques Cousteau’s exploration ship and the song was dedicated to his work.




To sail on a dream on a crystal clear ocean, to ride on the crest of the wild raging storm.
To work in the service of life and the living, in search of the answers to questions unknown.
To be part of the movement and part of the growing, part of beginning to understand.
Aye, Calypso, the places you’ve been to,
the things that you’ve shown us, the stories you tell.
Aye, Calypso, I sing to your spirit, the men who have served you so long and so well.


Like the dolphin who guides you, you bring us beside you
to light up the darkness and show us the way.
For though we are strangers in your silent world, to live on the land we must learn from the sea.
To be true as the tide and free as a wind swell, joyful and loving in letting it be.
Aye, Calypso, the places you’ve been to,
the things that you’ve shown us, the stories you tell.
Aye, Calypso, I sing to your spirit, the men who have served you so long and so well.
Aye, Calypso, the places you’ve been to,
the things that you’ve shown us, the stories you tell.
Aye, Calypso, I sing to your spirit, the men who have served you so long and so well.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Bye!



The removal of special advisor Dominic Cummings and the bubbling cauldron of tensions in Number 10 could show us a lot about Brexit. Number 10 does have a back door that photographers and journalists are banned from. Probably more than one in reality. So when Cummings was forced to walk out the big black door of Number Ten, tail between his legs and box in hands, we can be fairly sure the Prime Minister was sending a message. So what does making the master mind of the vote leave campaign and someone the media liked to portray as the government’s master puppeteer mean for the Pound?


Two things. Firstly, in the short run, Cummings’ very public dismissal presents a risk to the Prime Minister, his government and therefore the Pound. Before his appointment as special adviser Cummings kept a very public diary. His blog was his place to air his political ideas on everything from polling and forecasting to musings on the European Union. That same blog has remained stagnant and unpopulated since January this year and sparsely used during his period as adviser. With the broader stability of number 10 in question, it seems possible that Cummings could reopen his diary to scold Johnson. Some say he has even travelled to Barnard Castle to set up a lair in which to plot and mastermind the demise of his former advisee.. (Others don’t). Any reaction that harms political stability and the PM could undermine Sterling demand and thus its value.


With decades of surviving sticky situations  both professionally and personally, any short run risk to Johnson can likely be discounted and spun as an embarrassed aid seeking revenge. What then might this change show us about the course of Brexit? Cummings’ dismissal followed a resignation by Lee Cain. If two events can be considered a theme then the evolution of Number 10’s staff is nodding towards a cognitive tilt on Brexit that might pave way to the removal of some red lines blocking the path to a Brexit deal. With the final week of intensified negotiations underway and an EU summit taking place virtually on Thursday and Friday, it appears the stars might be aligning for 28 signatures on a Brexit deal. With Sterling biding it’s time for more concrete progress there is still a considerable discount in the Pound that could unwind if a deal is passed.




Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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Morning Brief – RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership


This new formed and largest free trade bloc globally was signed yesterday and includes the 10 countries that make up ASEAN-The Association of South Eastern Asian Nations plus China, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. This is the bloc to strike deals with unlike the much heralded Trans Pacific Partnership or TPP which was pushed by President Obama and exited by President Trump in 2017. RCEP will account for 30% of global exports, 30% of the global population and will reach 2.2 billion consumers. For those who follow Asian economics and politics, this is the first time that a single free trade deal has been struck between China, South Korea and Japan and it is therefore a big deal.

UK readers will be hoping that Liz Truss and her colleagues are paying attention and not spending their time congratulating themselves on the recent UK/Japan trade deal that will see the UK export GBP 113K of Stilton cheese annually to Japan.


Belgian Pigeons: the new world currency.


Living in London where they are 10 a penny, it is difficult to summon up much enthusiasm for pigeons and without being borderline racist, Belgian pigeons. Yesterday bidding started at EUR200 for a Belgian racing pigeon named New Kim. So what you are probably saying. Well the Belgians certainly did summon up enthusiasm and bidding was brisk. Research showed that Armando a male racing pigeon held the record at an astonishing EUR 1.252 million set in March 2019 and that males generally command higher prices than females. Well New Kim certainly put paid to that theory with on line bidding reaching EUR 1.32 million until yesterday morning when two Chinese bidders slugged it out before one claimed victory and New Kim with a knockout bid of EUR 1.6 million or USD 1.88 million. Owner and breeder Kurt Van de Wouwer was successively shocked and euphoric. Last Belgian pigeon fact: there are 20,000 pigeon fanciers in Belgium and as such they represent the highest concentration of pigeon fanciers globally.




Traditionally at the time of the Diwali celebration, the gold price can be relied on to rise as Aunties, Grannies and Mums and Dads mark the occasion with gifts of gold to their families. This year in so many ways different to others, has not seen that, and gold has barely moved and is currently at USD 1,886 leaving the children in India and the Indian diaspora globally, wanting and not getting.


Voulez Vous? Ah ha…


Yesterday was the 75th birthday of the Swedish/Norwegian Princess Anni-Frid, Dowager Countess of Plauen, better known as Frida or the brunette singer in Abba. With no less than 9 Number 1’s between 1974 and 1982, Abba enjoyed phenomenal global success. Here is Voulez Vous which, at the beginning of yet another week which has been promised as the breakthrough week between the European Union and the UK, seems appropriate for the ongoing trade negotiations:


People everywhere
A sense of expectation hangin’ in the air
Givin’ out a spark
Across the room your eyes are glowin’ in the dark


And here we go again, we know the start, we know the end
Masters of the scene
We’ve done it all before and now we’re back to get some more
You know what I mean


Take it now or leave it
Now is all we get
Nothing promised, no regrets
Ain’t no big decision
You know what to do
La question c’est voulez-vous




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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Morning Brief – Brexit Mood Music on a Trade Deal

Brexit Mood Music on a Trade Deal


Plenty of noise from top UK ministers yesterday on both the desire and the likelihood of a UK trade deal with the EU. The market has already discounted the further slippage of the deadline and despite the warm words emanating from Westminster, GBP has remained unimpressed, on the sidelines and lower across the board.


Singapore Airlines


Even the very best of aviation companies, Singapore Airlines is struggling in the face of zero demand for its top flight service and reliable and punctual timetable. Forced to tap the international capital markets, Singapore Airlines is raising S$ 850 million or USD 630 million by way of a convertible bond which will pay a coupon and will be convertible into SA’s shares. Pricing is imminent and HSBC intends to close the financing on December 3. Those who believe that a recovery in air travel will take place in 2021 will be rightly attracted by this issue. Interestingly Singapore Airlines has nixed the cries for “flights to nowhere” which are popular in Australia and have created some revenue for Qantas. Why? Because the flights from and to Singapore are considered to be ecologically undesirable and sad a consequence the green lobby has defeated the commercial arguments.


Beyond Meat


Shares in the U.S. plant based meat producer Beyond Meat Inc have dived 29% after a surprise quarterly loss and lower than expected sales.  At the outset of LockDown, demand for their products soared, but a combination of much reduced restaurant demand and also McDonalds launching their own similar offering named naturally, McPlant, has dented that positive picture. It says something that Beyond Meat sells its burgers at 7000 locations in the USA of CVS Health Corp because health conscious people buy their groceries there. SGM-FX’s I.T guru and committed vegan, Michael Newton tells me that their other must have product is Beyond Meatballs. All I can say is that having given up meat, which I do understand, why consumers then want to consume products which look like and in some cases even taste a bit like meat is a case of beyond me.


I Am I Said


This song written and performed by Neil Diamond and released in 1971 was like most of his songs commercially successful. It refers to his time in therapy in Los Angeles which perhaps explains the less than memorable lines, And no one heard at all/Not even the chair. More angst and Californian fluff one might think, but when I saw him live in concert at Knebworth House in the summer of 1976, those lyrics seemed perfectly fine-helped no doubt by copious refreshments on a warm Saturday night in Knebworth, England.


L.A’s fine, sun shines most of the time
And the feeling is laid back
Palm trees grow and rents are low
But you know I keep thinkin’ about
Making my way back

Well I’m New York City born and raised
But nowadays, I’m lost between two shores
L.A.’s fine, but it ain’t home
New York’s home but it ain’t mine no more

“I am”, I said
To no one there
And no one heard at all
Not even the chair

“I am”… I cried “I am”… said I
And I am lost, and I can’t even say why
Leavin’ me lonely still


Have a great weekend!




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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