Plain Sailing across the Channel:
This Brexit malarkey is a walk in the park! Well, that’s what the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Dominic Raab MP, must be thinking! Largely coincidentally, since the departure of David Davis, news on Brexit has been overwhelmingly positive, providing a boost to Sterling: Barnier mentions a deal within 6-8 weeks; flexibility surrounding Irish Border proposals… And now, this morning, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker says that he welcomes the UK Prime Minister’s Brexit proposals. Of little impact to markets yesterday, we also learned that Bank of England Governor, Dr. Mark Carney, will be staying at the Bank for an additional year, until 2020. With one day left until both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England publish their interest rate decisions, last minute positioning has been rife this morning. Interestingly, news of a potential merger between Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank saw the European single currency enjoy light support. Emerging markets remain flat this morning with short term support found across the board.
- GBP: The Irish Prime Minister reiterates Barnier’s comments that a deal may be possible in weeks. The Pound gains further traction as President Juncker also begins to thaw.
- EUR: Brexit hurdles yesterday certainly led to choppy Sterling trading conditions, however, somewhat more surprisingly, also hurt the extant rally in Italian yields, with the Euro falling mildly as a consequence.
- USD: Trade concerns: As Russian President Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi met yesterday the Dollar saw a minor bid.
- EM: Flat lining: could the correction in emerging markets be temporary? Now is a pivotal time for technical signals.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter