Morning Brief – UK Christmas cancelled due to soaring gas prices?

UK Christmas cancelled due to soaring gas prices?

 

Those who find it hard to join the price of gas to a potential Christmas cancellation need to know that gas price rises have resulted in at least 2 large fertiliser companies closing. Those companies produce Co2 as a by product precipitating a shortage of Co2. While Co2 is used in the humane slaughter of animals, it also of course powers the refrigeration systems that keep produce cold and extends its shelf life. Meat producer Bernard Matthews best known for turkeys and the strap line “ simply bootiful” has warned that it’s not just turkey meat that is threatened, but also pork and beef supplies. Kwasi Kwarteng the Minister responsible claims that the situation is under control, but perhaps he should pay close attention to the UK natural gas futures contract quoted on ICE. All you need to know and more particularly KK needs to know is that a year ago the contract was quoted at 37 and on Friday night it stood at 170.

 

British Pound

 

GBP has weakened almost 3% since June and investor sentiment is more negative than it has been for some time. Covid+Brexit have translated into stretched if not actually snapped supply chain issues for some products and $1.37 will be tested if that sentiment continues to be bearish-currently 1.3730-but against EUR, GBP is still at a respectable 0.8538 or EUR1.17 which may be seen as a bit of a bargain over the remainder of the year.

 

Shampanskoye

 

The dispute between Russia and France that has been rumbling on since July when Russia introduced a new law that struck at the very heart of French pride now shows signs of resolution. That law stipulated that all French champagne must be described as “sparkling wine” on the label. This was naturally such an affront to Gallic chutzpah that Champagne producers ceased exporting their fizz to Russia. Now France and Russia have agreed talks to find a way from this impasse that will allow Russian high rollers to celebrate with French Champagne and French Champagne producers to restore this lucrative source of income. In case you are wondering, France exported 2 million bottles of Champagne to Russia in 2020 so more symbolic than significant in the overall scheme of things commercial… like for example submarines….

 

Stuck With You

 

It was this day in 1986 when Huey Lewis and the News started a 3 week run at the top of the US singles charts with Stuck With You. It only managed to reach number 12 in the UK where the audiences were less stirred…or shaken…let alone stuck:

 

We’ve had some fun, and yes we’ve had our ups and downs
Been down that rocky road, but here we are, still around
We thought about someone else, but neither one took the bait
We thought about breaking up, now we know it’s much too late

We are bound by all the rest
Like the same phone number
All the same friends
And the same address

I am happy to be stuck with you
(Ooh) Yes, it’s true (yes, it’s true)
I’m so happy to be stuck with you
(Ooh) ‘Cause I can see (I can see)
That you’re happy to be stuck with me

We’ve had our doubts
We never took them seriously
And we’ve had our ins and outs (ooh, wa-ooh)
But that’s the way it’s supposed to be
We thought about giving up (giving up)
But we could never stay away
(Ooh, wa-ooh) We thought about breaking up
But now we know it’s much too late

And it’s no great mystery (ooh)
If we change our minds
Eventually, it’s back to you and me

 

 

 

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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